There were a lot of wide receivers selected early last weekend; a lot of players who will make an impact in the NFL and fantasy leagues over the next several years. We've talked some about our favorites. But inevitably, some of these players won't pan out. KJ Hamler is one I have my doubts about.
The Broncos selected Hamler midway through the second round, the 10th wide receiver drafted. It's the second time in three years they've selected a Penn State wideout; they drafted DaeSean Hamilton in the fourth round two years ago. Recent hits from the school include Chris Godwin (2017) and Allen Robinson (2014).
Hamler is a little guy (5-9, 178) and he's fast. Didn't run at the combine but supposedly has sub-4.40 speed, which shows up on tape. He averaged nearly 17 yards per catch in college. The Broncos, like the Raiders with their Henry Ruggs selection, might be trying to match Tyreek Hill, or at least Mecole Hardman.
But a lot of those guys don't work out. For every Hill or John Brown, there's a Tavon Austin or Travis Benjamin. Hamler's a slot receiver who might have a tough time going over the middle in the NFL; he might work better as a deep threat. He struggled with drops last year, another concern for his game.
There's also the reality that when teams double-dip on wideouts, it's rare that they hit on both players. It hasn't really happened of late.
Denver selected Alabama's Jerry Jeudy with its first pick, then came back with Hamler in the second. That makes 17 times in the last 20 years a team has drafted two wide receivers in the first three rounds. The previous 16 times, I don't really see any instances where both players hit big.
About the closest example would be the Jaguars in 2014. Robinson has been a great pro, and Marqise Lee had a couple of good seasons where he looked like he might be a star (but has now been hurt for most of the last two seasons).
Table shows those previous 16 pairs of wide receivers. I'm making early calls on the pairs selected last year; maybe Hurd or Boykin winds up outshining the guy who was a lot better as a rookie. (But probably not.) Ten times, the wide receiver drafted first was clearly the better pro; those players are in bold. Just two times, the wide receiver drafted second was better (italics). Four times neither player did anything of note. (On three occasions, involving Tavon Austin and the two 2000 pairs, I'm being generous; none of those six players really hit. But the guy drafted first was definitely better.)
| TEAMS DRAFTING 2 WRS IN THE FIRST THREE ROUNDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player |
| 2019 | 2 | 36 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. |
| 2019 | 3 | 67 | Jalen Hurd, S.F. |
| 2019 | 1 | 25 | Marquise Brown, Balt. |
| 2019 | 3 | 93 | Miles Boykin, Balt. |
| 2017 | 1 | 5 | Corey Davis, Tenn. |
| 2017 | 3 | 72 | Taywan Taylor, Tenn. |
| 2016 | 1 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. |
| 2016 | 3 | 85 | Braxton Miller, Hou. |
| 2014 | 2 | 39 | Marqise Lee, Jac. |
| 2014 | 2 | 61 | Allen Robinson, Jac. |
| 2013 | 2 | 41 | Robert Woods, Buff. |
| 2013 | 3 | 78 | Marquise Goodwin, Buff. |
| 2013 | 1 | 8 | Tavon Austin, St.L. |
| 2013 | 3 | 92 | Stedman Bailey, St.L. |
| 2009 | 1 | 29 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG |
| 2009 | 3 | 85 | Ramses Barden, NYG |
| 2008 | 2 | 46 | Jerome Simpson, Cin. |
| 2008 | 3 | 97 | Andre Caldwell, Cin. |
| 2008 | 2 | 34 | Devin Thomas, Wash. |
| 2008 | 2 | 51 | Malcolm Kelly, Wash. |
| 2006 | 1 | 25 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. |
| 2006 | 3 | 95 | Willie Reid, Pitt. |
| 2005 | 3 | 68 | Courtney Roby, Tenn. |
| 2005 | 3 | 96 | Brandon Jones, Tenn. |
| 2004 | 1 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. |
| 2004 | 3 | 77 | Derrick Hamilton, S.F. |
| 2003 | 1 | 17 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. |
| 2003 | 2 | 54 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. |
| 2000 | 1 | 4 | Peter Warrick, Cin. |
| 2000 | 3 | 66 | Ron Dugans, Cin. |
| 2000 | 2 | 32 | Dennis Northcutt, Clev. |
| 2000 | 3 | 79 | JaJuan Dawson, Clev. |
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. If nothing else, Hamler was an excellent returner at Penn State, so he should help the Broncos in that capacity.
But based on the history, the odds of both Jeudy and Hamler panning out as quality wide receivers look remote. The odds of Hamler being the one who hits are similarly unlikely. Allen Robinson and Anquan Boldin; that's the list of second wideouts drafted who've turned out better.
--Andy Richardson