I like the look of Cam Akers. Given the situation he’s going into, I think he needs to be in the conversation to be the most productive of the rookie running backs.
There were six running backs chosen before the end of the second round. Of that group, Akers is arguably in the best situation. None of the other five (I think) will be starting on opening day.
Certainly not A.J. Dillon. The Packers have Aaron Jones, and I don’t think we’ll see Dillon start ahead of Jones this year. I’m not positive he’ll even be their backup at the beginning of the season.
J.K.Dobbins is headed into a wildly crowded backfield in Baltimore.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a neat player with pass-catching ability. I think he’ll be effective out of spread formations when Kansas City uses him. But I don’t think he’ll be used heavily from the get-go. KC also has Damien Williams and DeAndre Washington; I don’t think they’ll just kick those guys to the curb.
D’Andre Swift, I think, will split time with Kerryon Johnson. Swift is a little bigger and a little more talented, but Johnson has shown flashes and has the advantage of having been there for the last two years. And it wouldn’t surprise me if they use their other SEC back – Bo Scarbrough – as their big banger at the goal line.
Similarly, I think Jonathan Taylor will be part of a one-two punch backfield. I think he’s better than Marlon Mack, but Mack has been a solid runner the last two years, averaging 79 rushing yards in the games he’s started. Over the last two years, only five running backs (among those starting at least half the time) have averaged more rushing yards than Mack. I think those two are sharing time, and I think a third back there (Nyheim Hines) will catch far more passes than both of them combined.
Which brings us to Akers. The backs that he’ll compete with aren’t as impressive. Malcolm Brown is a former undrafted free agent who’s been a special teams player and backup for the bulk of his career. He just doesn’t have the NFL-ability that you want in a starter. Darrell Henderson busted loose for a lot of long touchdowns at Memphis, but he didn’t do much as a rookie and is too small to be a full-time kind of back. With the Rams, I think it will be a predominantly Akers-Henderson tandem, and I’m expecting Akers will become their No. 1 guy very quickly – maybe by Week 1.
Are the Rams any good? That’s an additional question. Their line really fell apart last year, and they haven’t done much to fix it. With Arizona seeming to be an up-and-coming teams, Los Angeles might be the last-place team in the NFC West.
But LA still has Sean McVay, who’s been of the better coaches at drawing up game plans. And he’s really emphasized the run around the end zone. Todd Gurley piled up a ton of touchdowns in the 2017-18 seasons, and even last year (when the Rams were struggling) they continued to pump him a lot of carries at the goal line.
The Rams ran the ball 33 times inside the 5 last year, 3rd-most in the league. And they scored a league-high 15 rushing touchdowns in that area.
(In the chart below, I’m including 2-point conversions. They are not officially “plays”, but I think they are informative in painting a picture of what’s going on.)
| RUSHING INSIDE THE 5-YARD LINE (teams) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | 2Pt | EZ% |
| Baltimore | 37 | 32 | .86 | 11 | 2 | 35.1% |
| New England | 35 | 50 | 1.43 | 14 | 1 | 42.9% |
| LA Rams | 33 | 53 | 1.61 | 15 | 1 | 48.5% |
| Minnesota | 32 | 43 | 1.34 | 13 | 0 | 40.6% |
| Philadelphia | 29 | 41 | 1.41 | 13 | 2 | 51.7% |
| Tampa Bay | 26 | 34 | 1.31 | 11 | 3 | 53.8% |
| Indianapolis | 26 | 30 | 1.15 | 11 | 1 | 46.2% |
| Carolina | 26 | 28 | 1.08 | 11 | 1 | 46.2% |
| Cincinnati | 25 | 32 | 1.28 | 9 | 1 | 40.0% |
| LA Chargers | 25 | 27 | 1.08 | 10 | 0 | 40.0% |
| San Francisco | 25 | 19 | .76 | 10 | 0 | 40.0% |
| Dallas | 22 | 40 | 1.82 | 11 | 1 | 54.5% |
| Oakland | 22 | 37 | 1.68 | 9 | 0 | 40.9% |
| Green Bay | 21 | 29 | 1.38 | 12 | 1 | 61.9% |
| Cleveland | 21 | 0 | .00 | 7 | 0 | 33.3% |
| Chicago | 21 | 22 | 1.05 | 6 | 0 | 28.6% |
| Houston | 20 | 30 | 1.50 | 13 | 0 | 65.0% |
| Buffalo | 19 | 13 | .68 | 8 | 1 | 47.4% |
| Kansas City | 19 | 27 | 1.42 | 9 | 0 | 47.4% |
| Seattle | 18 | 14 | .78 | 8 | 0 | 44.4% |
| Arizona | 17 | 22 | 1.29 | 9 | 0 | 52.9% |
| Detroit | 17 | 22 | 1.29 | 7 | 0 | 41.2% |
| New Orleans | 17 | 15 | .88 | 6 | 0 | 35.3% |
| Miami | 17 | 4 | .24 | 6 | 0 | 35.3% |
| Denver | 16 | 23 | 1.44 | 9 | 0 | 56.3% |
| Tennessee | 15 | 19 | 1.27 | 9 | 1 | 66.7% |
| Atlanta | 15 | 20 | 1.33 | 7 | 0 | 46.7% |
| Washington | 15 | 12 | .80 | 6 | 0 | 40.0% |
| NY Giants | 15 | 9 | .60 | 4 | 0 | 26.7% |
| Pittsburgh | 13 | 6 | .46 | 5 | 0 | 38.5% |
| Jacksonville | 11 | 2 | .18 | 3 | 0 | 27.3% |
| NY Jets | 8 | 15 | 1.88 | 5 | 0 | 62.5% |
—Ian Allan