Are we going to see an unheralded rookie running back make a big impact? On the one hand, it seems unlikely. You look at any one of these prospects individually, and the chances of success aren’t great. Yet, it seems to happen most years.
On this sort of deal, it makes sense to first agree on how to define “unheralded”. There were a bunch of running backs selected in the second round. I don’t consider them to be long shots. Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers: These are guys who are expected to be very good from the git-go.
I think “unheralded” starts approximately in the third round.
There were seven running backs selected in the third and fourth rounds this year. Keshawn Vaughn to the Bucs, most notably; I think they’ll give him a shot to be their starter. I liked the way Zack Moss (pictured) ran at Utah; to me, he looks like a Marshawn Lynch kind of guy. I expect he’ll be Buffalo’s No. 2 back at the start of the season.
The Seahawks have had success finding unheralded running backs who fit their offense (Chris Carson, Thomas Rawls). DeeJay Dallas never ran for 700 yards in a season at the U, but he looks like a Carson-type back to me. He could be their opening-day backup (with Rashaad Penny coming off a torn ACL).
The Chargers need a back to pair with Austin Ekeler, and Joshua Kelley will be given a shot to win that role. Unless they bring in somebody else, it will be Kelley or Justin Jackson. Kelley is more talented, while Jackson has the advantage of having been there for a couple of years.
Others: Darrynton Evans (Titans), LaMical Perine (Jets) and Anthony McFarland (Steelers).
If we get out the numbers from the last 20 years, I see 28 backs who weren’t drafted in the first or second round but still finished with top-30 stats in their first season (using PPR scoring). None last year, but in each of the previous nine seasons, at least one back drafted after the second round put up top-30 numbers in his first year.
| LESS-HERALDED ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Points | Rk |
| 6 | 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 1,500 | 169 | 1,669 | 15 | 258.9 | 4 |
| 3 | 2000 | Travis Prentice, Clev. | 512 | 191 | 703 | 8 | 118.3 | 28 |
| FA | 2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1,104 | 224 | 1,328 | 10 | 192.8 | 11 |
| 3 | 2001 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 512 | 247 | 759 | 5 | 105.9 | 30 |
| 4 | 2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,031 | 351 | 1,382 | 8 | 186.2 | 15 |
| FA | 2005 | Samkon Gado, G.B. | 582 | 77 | 659 | 7 | 107.9 | 30 |
| FA | 2006 | Mike Bell, Den. | 677 | 158 | 835 | 8 | 131.5 | 30 |
| 3 | 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 976 | 286 | 1,262 | 8 | 174.2 | 18 |
| 3 | 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1,282 | 377 | 1,659 | 10 | 225.9 | 6 |
| FA | 2010 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 1,007 | 14 | 1,021 | 6 | 138.1 | 24 |
| 3 | 2011 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 897 | 183 | 1,080 | 2 | 120.0 | 30 |
| 6 | 2012 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 1,613 | 77 | 1,690 | 13 | 247.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 2012 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 814 | 152 | 966 | 3 | 114.6 | 27 |
| 5 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 141 | 1,114 | 8 | 159.4 | 18 |
| 6 | 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 652 | 371 | 1,023 | 4 | 126.3 | 25 |
| 4 | 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 721 | 130 | 851 | 7 | 127.1 | 21 |
| FA | 2014 | Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 607 | 87 | 694 | 8 | 117.4 | 28 |
| 3 | 2014 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 765 | 148 | 913 | 5 | 121.3 | 25 |
| 4 | 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 537 | 279 | 816 | 7 | 125.6 | 24 |
| FA | 2015 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 830 | 76 | 906 | 5 | 120.6 | 26 |
| 3 | 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 457 | 1,038 | 13 | 181.8 | 7 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,313 | 298 | 1,611 | 7 | 203.1 | 9 |
| FA | 2016 | Robert Kelley, Wash. | 704 | 82 | 786 | 7 | 120.6 | 26 |
| 4 | 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 612 | 265 | 877 | 5 | 117.7 | 27 |
| 4 | 2017 | Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 556 | 262 | 818 | 6 | 117.8 | 29 |
| 3 | 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 826 | 1,554 | 14 | 241.4 | 4 |
| 3 | 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1,327 | 455 | 1,782 | 11 | 244.2 | 3 |
| FA | 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1,037 | 241 | 1,278 | 10 | 187.8 | 13 |
—Ian Allan