I’m not a big Rob Gronkowski fan. I don’t see him showing up in Tampa Bay and dominating.
Great career, of course. On his best day, he was probably the best tight end in the history of the game. But time marches on. He’s 31 now, and he’s been away from the game for a year. When we last saw him, he wasn’t the difference-maker he had been in the past. He’s lost some speed, and he’s not coming up with the contested balls like he did earlier in his career.
In 2018, Gronkowski averaged 3.6 catches for 53 yards per week, with 3 TDs in 13 games. He was more of a top-10 tight end rather than the monster he had been in the past.
Now he’s going to show up in Tampa after a year off and dominate? I don’t see.
One of the ideas you’ll hear tossed around is that Tom Brady and him will have some kind of special connection in the red zone – with them having worked together in New England for all those years. Brady will go back to what has worked for him over and over in the past.
It’s one of those ideas that’s fun to throw out there. But you get out the numbers, and it’s not really supported by anything that’s actually happened.
In Gronkowski’s last two years in New England, they went to him 12 times on pass plays when they were inside the 10. He caught 5 of those passes, including 4 TDs and a 2-point conversion. That’s it – 4 TDs in 27 games in that part of the field.
The Bucs during the same time period actually had more success with their two holdover tight ends. Both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate caught 7 TDs.
I’m confident Gronkowski will be selected in drafts long before he will even show up on my radar as a consideration.
| TIGHT ENDS INSIDE THE 10 (last 3 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Com | Pct | TD/2pt | EZ% |
| O.J. Howard, T.B. | 11 | 7 | 64% | 7 | 64% |
| Zach Ertz, Phil. | 24 | 18 | 75% | 14+1 | 63% |
| Cameron Brate, T.B. | 13 | 7 | 54% | 7 | 54% |
| Evan Engram, NYG | 17 | 11 | 65% | 9 | 53% |
| Gerald Everett, LAR | 14 | 9 | 64% | 6+1 | 50% |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 12 | 9 | 75% | 6 | 50% |
| Eric Ebron, Det.-Ind. | 16 | 9 | 56% | 8 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper, Atl. | 28 | 18 | 64% | 11+2 | 46% |
| Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 24 | 15 | 63% | 10+1 | 46% |
| Trey Burton, Phi.-Chi. | 11 | 8 | 73% | 3+2 | 45% |
| Jason Witten, Dall. | 11 | 7 | 64% | 4+1 | 45% |
| Jack Doyle, Ind. | 11 | 8 | 73% | 5 | 45% |
| Hunter Henry, LAC | 16 | 10 | 63% | 6+1 | 44% |
| Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 12 | 5 | 36% | 4+1 | 42% |
| Ryan Griffin, Hou.-NYJ | 12 | 6 | 50% | 3+2 | 42% |
| Vance McDonald, Pitt. | 12 | 6 | 50% | 5 | 42% |
| Jimmy Graham, Sea.-G.B. | 29 | 13 | 45% | 11+1 | 41% |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ-Jac. | 10 | 5 | 50% | 4 | 40% |
| David Njoku, Cle. | 13 | 6 | 46% | 5 | 38% |
| C.J. Uzomah, Cin. | 11 | 6 | 55% | 4 | 36% |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 28 | 13 | 46% | 10 | 36% |
| Antonio Gates, LAC | 21 | 7 | 33% | 5+2 | 33% |
| Jesse James, Pit.-Det. | 12 | 5 | 42% | 4 | 33% |
| Delanie Walker, Ten. | 10 | 3 | 30% | 3 | 30% |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 26 | 13 | 50% | 6+1 | 27% |
| Greg Olsen, Car. | 15 | 7 | 47% | 4 | 27% |
| Jared Cook, Oak.-N.O. | 19 | 10 | 53% | 5 | 26% |
| Benjamin Watson, 3 tms | 16 | 10 | 63% | 4 | 25% |
| Nick Boyle, Balt. | 16 | 4 | 25% | 2+1 | 19% |
—Ian Allan