There were 11 running backs selected in the first three rounds of the draft, setting up some interesting decisions for fantasy teams. Do you take the big swing on the upside of a rookie? Or is it better to bank on the value of experience?
Specifically, we’ve got D’Andre Swift versus Kerryon Johnson in Detroit, Jonathan Taylor versus Marlon Mack (pictured) in Indianapolis and KeShawn Vaughn against Ronald Jones in Tampa Bay. And Clyde Edwards-Helaire against Damien Williams for the Super Bowl champ.
I think most tend to go for the younger guys. In general, the rookies tend to be selected earlier in fantasy draft. I go case by case, but I tend to more often go with the veteran players.
On this topic, I’ve cook up a new chart. I’ve taken all of the rookie running backs from the last 20 years who were selected in the second round. Then I’ve compared their production in their rookie year against the team’s best veteran. In the table, yards and touchdowns includes both rushing and receiving production.
There have been 49 running backs chosen in the second round in the last 20 years. In those 49 cases, only 14 times did the rookie put up the team’s best RB numbers (and in only five of those cases did the rookie put up top-10 PPR numbers (indicated by a black dot). So the veterans win that round – 35-14, with a 10-5 edge in top-10 seasons.
SECOND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS (last 20 years) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Tm | Rookie | Yds-TD | Rk | Veteran | Yds-TD | Rk |
2001 | Chi. | Anthony Thomas | 1361-7 | 17 | James Allen | 672-2 | 40 |
2001 | NYJ | LaMont Jordan | 336-2 | 72 | • Curtis Martin | 1833-10 | 5 |
2001 | Buff. | Travis Henry | 908-4 | 30 | Larry Centers | 780-4 | 23 |
2002 | Den. | • Clinton Portis | 1872-17 | 7 | Mike Anderson | 553-4 | 44 |
2002 | Sea. | Maurice Morris | 178-1 | 95 | • Shaun Alexander | 1635-18 | 6 |
2002 | Car. | DeShaun Foster | 0-0 | -- | Lamar Smith | 904-7 | 32 |
2002 | Was. | Ladell Betts | 461-1 | 62 | Stephen Davis | 962-8 | 28 |
2003 | Car. | DeShaun Foster | 636-2 | 42 | Stephen Davis | 1603-8 | 15 |
2004 | Dall. | Julius Jones | 928-7 | 31 | Eddie George | 515-4 | 48 |
2004 | Jac. | Greg Jones | 175-3 | 83 | Fred Taylor | 1569-3 | 19 |
2004 | Den. | Tatum Bell | 476-3 | 63 | Reuben Droughns | 1481-8 | 15 |
2005 | Car. | Eric Shelton | 0-0 | -- | DeShaun Foster | 1251-3 | 22 |
2005 | Ariz. | J.J. Arrington | 509-2 | 53 | Marcel Shipp | 706-0 | 43 |
2006 | Jac. | • Maurice Jones-Drew | 1377-16 | 8 | Fred Taylor | 1388-6 | 20 |
2006 | Ten. | LenDale White | 304-0 | 72 | Travis Henry | 1289-7 | 23 |
2007 | Cin. | Kenny Irons | 0-0 | -- | Kenny Watson | 1137-7 | 14 |
2007 | Ten. | Chris Henry | 0-0 | -- | LenDale White | 1224-7 | 18 |
2007 | G.B. | Brandon Jackson | 397-1 | 67 | Ryan Grant | 1101-8 | 17 |
2007 | St.L. | Brian Leonard | 486-0 | 56 | Steven Jackson | 1273-6 | 15 |
2008 | Chi. | • Matt Forte | 1715-12 | 2 | Jason McKie | 90-3 | 84 |
2008 | Balt. | Ray Rice | 727-0 | 49 | LeRon McClain | 1025-11 | 23 |
2009 | Phil. | LeSean McCoy | 945-4 | 32 | Leonard Weaver | 463-4 | 52 |
2010 | Min. | Toby Gerhart | 489-1 | 58 | • Adrian Peterson | 1639-13 | 5 |
2010 | Hou. | Ben Tate | 0-0 | -- | • Arian Foster | 2220-18 | 1 |
2010 | K.C. | Dexter McCluster | 280-2 | 65 | • Jamaal Charles | 1935-8 | 4 |
2010 | Cle. | Montario Hardesty | 0-0 | -- | • Peyton Hillis | 1654-13 | 2 |
2011 | Ariz. | Ryan Williams | 0-0 | -- | Beanie Wells | 1099-10 | 23 |
2011 | Det. | Mikel Leshoure | 0-0 | -- | Kevin Smith | 535-7 | 41 |
2011 | Mia. | Daniel Thomas | 653-1 | 51 | Reggie Bush | 1382-7 | 13 |
2011 | N.E. | Shane Vereen | 57-1 | 123 | Stevan Ridley | 454-1 | 73 |
2012 | S.F. | LaMichael James | 154-0 | 116 | • Frank Gore | 1448-10 | 10 |
2012 | St.L. | Isaiah Pead | 70-0 | 130 | Steven Jackson | 1366-4 | 17 |
2013 | G.B. | • Eddie Lacy | 1435-11 | 8 | James Starks | 582-4 | 52 |
2013 | Cin. | Giovani Bernard | 1209-8 | 13 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 778-7 | 40 |
2013 | Pitt. | LeVeon Bell | 1259-8 | 15 | Jonathan Dwyer | 261-0 | 86 |
2013 | Den. | Montee Ball | 704-4 | 43 | • Knowshon Moreno | 1586-13 | 4 |
2013 | Sea. | Christine Michael | 79-0 | 131 | • Marshawn Lynch | 1573-14 | 5 |
2014 | Cin. | • Jeremy Hill | 1339-9 | 10 | Giovani Bernard | 1029-7 | 18 |
2014 | Ten. | Bishop Sankey | 702-2 | 44 | Dexter McCluster | 328-1 | 72 |
2014 | S.F. | Carlos Hyde | 401-4 | 61 | Frank Gore | 1217-5 | 21 |
2015 | Jac. | T.J. Yeldon | 1019-3 | 28 | Denard Robinson | 430-1 | 72 |
2015 | Det. | Ameer Abdullah | 780-3 | 44 | Theo Riddick | 830-3 | 19 |
2016 | Ten. | Derrick Henry | 627-5 | 45 | • DeMarco Murray | 1664-12 | 5 |
2017 | Cin. | Joe Mixon | 913-4 | 33 | Giovani Bernard | 847-4 | 29 |
2017 | Min. | Dalvin Cook | 444-2 | 72 | Jerick McKinnon | 991-5 | 17 |
2018 | Det. | Kerryon Johnson | 854-4 | 33 | Theo Riddick | 555-0 | 43 |
2018 | Cle. | Nick Chubb | 1145-10 | 17 | Duke Johnson | 630-3 | 37 |
2018 | Was. | Derrius Guice | 0-0 | -- | Adrian Peterson | 1250-8 | 19 |
2018 | T.B. | Ronald Jones | 77-1 | 95 | Peyton Barber | 963-6 | 31 |
If we go down to the third round, things play out in a similar way. There have been 59 chosen in the last 20 years. Only 13 of those 59 rookies were the best running backs on their teams, with 4 top-10 backs.
With 46 of those 59 backs, the team had a better veteran (with 16 ranking in the top 10).
THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS (last 20 years) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Tm | Rookie | Yds-TD | Rk | Veteran | Yds-TD | Rk |
2000 | Buff. | Shawn Bryson | 862-2 | 33 | Sammy Morris | 609-6 | 32 |
2000 | Det. | Reuben Droughns | 0-0 | -- | James Stewart | 1471-11 | 15 |
2000 | N.E. | J.R. Redmond | 532-3 | 42 | Kevin Faulk | 1035-5 | 27 |
2000 | Min. | Doug Chapman | 0-0 | -- | • Robert Smith | 1869-10 | 10 |
2000 | Cle. | Travis Prentice | 703-8 | 29 | Errict Rhett | 336-0 | 67 |
2001 | Mia. | Travis Minor | 544-4 | 42 | Lamar Smith | 1202-8 | 18 |
2001 | Det. | Reuben Droughns | 93-1 | 107 | Cory Schlesinger | 620-3 | 28 |
2001 | S.F. | Kevan Barlow | 759-5 | 33 | Garrison Hearst | 1553-5 | 13 |
2001 | Cle. | James Jackson | 610-2 | 55 | Jamel White | 861-6 | 24 |
2001 | Sea. | Heath Evans | 11-0 | 142 | • Shaun Alexander | 1661-16 | 4 |
2002 | St.L. | Lamar Gordon | 506-3 | 43 | • Marshall Faulk | 1490-10 | 10 |
2002 | Phil. | Brian Westbrook | 279-0 | 82 | Duce Staley | 1570-8 | 15 |
2003 | Balt. | Musa Smith | 31-2 | 118 | • Jamal Lewis | 2271-14 | 4 |
2003 | Oak. | Justin Fargas | 205-0 | 103 | Charlie Garner | 939-4 | 26 |
2003 | Ten. | Chris Brown | 282-0 | 88 | Eddie George | 1194-5 | 23 |
2003 | NYJ | B.J. Askew | 9-0 | 157 | Curtis Martin | 1570-2 | 18 |
2005 | Hou. | Vernand Morency | 271-2 | 76 | Domanick Williams | 1313-6 | 15 |
2005 | Phil. | Ryan Moats | 285-3 | 75 | • Brian Westbrook | 1233-7 | 10 |
2005 | Den. | Maurice Clarett | 0-0 | -- | Mike Anderson | 1226-13 | 12 |
2005 | S.F. | Frank Gore | 739-3 | 42 | Kevan Barlow | 822-3 | 30 |
2006 | Atl. | Jerious Norwood | 735-2 | 47 | Warrick Dunn | 1310-5 | 25 |
2006 | Det. | Brian Calhoun | 39-0 | 133 | Kevin Jones | 1209-8 | 12 |
2007 | Phil. | Tony Hunt | 16-1 | 132 | • Brian Westbrook | 2104-12 | 1 |
2007 | Mia. | Lorenzo Booker | 362-0 | 65 | Ronnie Brown | 991-5 | 23 |
2007 | Chi. | Garrett Wolfe | 202-0 | 92 | Adrian N. Peterson | 930-3 | 25 |
2008 | K.C. | Jamaal Charles | 629-1 | 54 | Larry Johnson | 948-5 | 40 |
2008 | S.D. | Jacob Hester | 186-2 | 80 | • LaDainian Tomlinson | 1536-12 | 6 |
2008 | Det. | Kevin Smith | 1262-8 | 17 | Rudi Johnson | 325-2 | 74 |
2008 | Hou. | • Steve Slaton | 1659-10 | 7 | Ahman Green | 326-3 | 68 |
2009 | NYJ | Shonn Greene | 540-2 | 66 | • Thomas Jones | 1460-14 | 9 |
2009 | S.F. | Glen Coffee | 302-1 | 78 | • Frank Gore | 1526-13 | 5 |
2011 | N.E. | Stevan Ridley | 454-1 | 73 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 826-11 | 28 |
2011 | G.B. | Alex Green | 17-0 | 150 | Ryan Grant | 827-3 | 37 |
2011 | Dall. | DeMarco Murray | 1080-2 | 30 | Felix Jones | 796-1 | 40 |
2012 | Den. | Ronnie Hillman | 392-1 | 67 | Willis McGahee | 952-4 | 28 |
2012 | Balt. | Bernard Pierce | 579-1 | 59 | • Ray Rice | 1621-10 | 4 |
2013 | K.C. | Knile Davis | 317-5 | 56 | • Jamaal Charles | 1980-19 | 1 |
2014 | Cle. | Terrance West | 737-5 | 41 | Isaiah Crowell | 694-8 | 33 |
2014 | Min. | Jerick McKinnon | 673-0 | 48 | Matt Asiata | 882-10 | 14 |
2014 | Pitt. | Dri Archer | 63-0 | 155 | • LeVeon Bell | 2215-11 | 1 |
2014 | T.B. | Charles Sims | 375-1 | 73 | Bobby Rainey | 721-2 | 40 |
2014 | St.L. | Tre Mason | 913-5 | 30 | Benny Cunningham | 598-4 | 32 |
2015 | Atl. | Tevin Coleman | 406-1 | 79 | • Devonta Freeman | 1634-14 | 1 |
2015 | Was. | Matt Jones | 794-4 | 41 | Alfred Morris | 806-1 | 53 |
2015 | Cle. | Duke Johnson | 913-2 | 24 | Isaiah Crowell | 888-5 | 33 |
2015 | Ariz. | • David Johnson | 1038-13 | 7 | Chris Johnson | 872-3 | 48 |
2016 | Mia. | Kenyan Drake | 225-3 | 74 | Jay Ajayi | 1423-8 | 11 |
2016 | Sea. | C.J. Prosise | 380-1 | 68 | Thomas Rawls | 445-3 | 62 |
2017 | Pitt. | James Conner | 144-0 | 113 | • LeVeon Bell | 1946-11 | 2 |
2017 | Hou. | D'Onta Foreman | 410-2 | 74 | Lamar Miller | 1215-6 | 16 |
2017 | K.C. | • Kareem Hunt | 1782-11 | 4 | Charcandrick West | 222-4 | 67 |
2017 | N.O. | • Alvin Kamara | 1554-14 | 3 | • Mark Ingram | 1540-12 | 6 |
2018 | Den. | Royce Freeman | 593-5 | 46 | Phillip Lindsay | 1278-10 | 13 |
2019 | LAR | Darrell Henderson | 184-0 | 98 | Todd Gurley | 1064-14 | 14 |
2019 | N.E. | Damien Harris | 12-0 | 142 | James White | 908-6 | 18 |
2019 | Min. | Alexander Mattison | 544-1 | 61 | • Dalvin Cook | 1654-13 | 6 |
2019 | Phil. | Miles Sanders | 1327-6 | 15 | Jordan Howard | 594-7 | 44 |
2019 | Buff. | Devin Singletary | 969-4 | 33 | Frank Gore | 699-2 | 50 |
2019 | Chi. | David Montgomery | 1074-7 | 24 | Tarik Cohen | 669-3 | 27 |
—Ian Allan