I like the look of Austin Ekeler. Not so much as a runner, but he’s going to catch a ton of balls, and that makes him look like a very safe choice at the running back position.
Ekeler was the 4th-best running back last year in PPR formats, and he did it despite sharing time with Melvin Gordon for most of the year. Gordon’s gone, so Ekeler should play more, handling the ball more often as a runner.
I don’t think Ekeler will be as effective as a receiver. He caught 92 balls last year, of course, and that’s setting the ball awfully high. They don’t have Philip Rivers anymore, and I don’t think Tyrod Taylor will complete as many of those throws. The team won’t be passing as often, and Taylor probably will bring a different mentality to the position – perhaps more often running around, looking for a downfield completion, rather than dumping it off.
But if we assume Ekeler will catch 70 passes (22 fewer than last year), he looks like a very safe choice.
In the last 20 years, 48 running backs have caught at least 70 passes and run for at least 400 yards. All but three of those guys have finished with a least top-12 overall numbers using PPR scoring.
In the chart below, there are 10 additional players who caught 70-plus passes but ran for fewer than 400 yards. James White, Theo Riddick, Tarik Cohen and others. I flagged them with black dots, because they don’t really apply. Ekeler isn’t just a third-down back, who going to run for only 300 yards – that’s not what he is.
Nor, in fairness, is a McCaffrey-Tomlinson monster who’s going to run for 1,300-plus yards. So note the players in bold. Those are guys who caught 70-plus passes and ran for more than 600 yards but less than 1,000 yards. Conservatively, I think we can put Ekeler in that group. Nine of those 11 players ranked in the top 11 in PPR production. Michael Pittman (not the receiver for the Colts but his dad) is the one disappointment. Twice he had one of those seasons but finished only 17th among running backs in PPR production.
To me, Ekeler looks like a safe choice. In PPR formats, he’ll be one of my first 10 backs.
RUNNING BACKS WITH 70-PLUS RECEPTIONS (last 20 years) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run-TD | No-Rec-TD | PPR | Rk |
2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1387-15 | 116-1005-4 | 471.2 | 1 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 1359-18 | 81-830-8 | 459.9 | 1 |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1420-27 | 74-690-0 | 447.0 | 1 |
2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1645-13 | 100-725-4 | 444.1 | 2 |
2002 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1615-21 | 70-672-3 | 442.7 | 1 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 1382-12 | 83-765-9 | 425.7 | 1 |
2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1528-13 | 90-806-3 | 419.4 | 2 |
2016 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 1239-16 | 80-879-4 | 413.8 | 1 |
2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1098-7 | 107-867-6 | 388.0 | 1 |
2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1683-14 | 79-489-1 | 386.2 | 2 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307-11 | 91-721-4 | 385.8 | 2 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1287-12 | 70-693-7 | 382.0 | 1 |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1364-12 | 76-704-3 | 376.9 | 1 |
2007 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 1333-7 | 90-771-5 | 372.4 | 1 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1361-8 | 83-854-3 | 370.5 | 1 |
2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 883-14 | 81-709-4 | 354.2 | 4 |
2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1038-6 | 102-808-4 | 350.6 | 3 |
2002 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 962-7 | 91-941-4 | 347.3 | 4 |
2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1291-9 | 85-655-2 | 345.6 | 2 |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1339-9 | 74-594-3 | 341.3 | 2 |
2006 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 1217-7 | 77-699-4 | 334.6 | 4 |
2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1434-6 | 77-567-3 | 331.1 | 5 |
2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1339-7 | 78-702-1 | 330.1 | 3 |
2000 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 1175-10 | 73-559-3 | 324.4 | 4 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728-8 | 81-826-5 | 322.4 | 3 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 1056-11 | 73-578-3 | 320.4 | 1 |
2016 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1268-7 | 75-616-2 | 319.4 | 3 |
2019 | * AUSTIN EKELER, LAC | 557-3 | 92-993-8 | 313.0 | 4 |
2000 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 1204-9 | 70-508-2 | 312.1 | 5 |
2010 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1080-7 | 78-592-2 | 299.2 | 3 |
2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 1025-9 | 70-563-2 | 296.8 | 6 |
2000 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1006-8 | 70-719-1 | 296.5 | 8 |
2002 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 953-8 | 80-537-2 | 289.0 | 10 |
2004 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 812-3 | 73-703-6 | 278.5 | 7 |
2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 603-2 | 86-710-7 | 277.3 | 5 |
2018 | James White, N.E. | 425-5 | 87-751-7 | 276.6 | 7 |
2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565-6 | 88-742-2 | 272.7 | 9 |
2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1152-3 | 76-522-0 | 261.4 | 7 |
2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 797-5 | 81-533-1 | 250.7 | 9 |
2015 | • Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 336-3 | 80-755-6 | 243.1 | 3 |
2001 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 865-4 | 72-577-0 | 242.2 | 9 |
2018 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 444-3 | 71-725-5 | 240.0 | 11 |
2000 | Michael Pittman, Ariz. | 719-4 | 73-579-2 | 238.8 | 17 |
2001 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 839-1 | 72-578-2 | 231.7 | 11 |
2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435-2 | 80-651-5 | 230.6 | 9 |
2013 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 429-2 | 76-605-6 | 227.4 | 12 |
2003 | Michael Pittman, T.B. | 751-0 | 75-597-2 | 221.8 | 17 |
2017 | • Duke Johnson, Cle. | 348-4 | 74-693-3 | 220.1 | 11 |
2012 | • Darren Sproles, N.O. | 244-1 | 75-667-7 | 216.1 | 13 |
2007 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 581-4 | 73-417-2 | 214.8 | 12 |
2013 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 549-2 | 77-513-3 | 213.2 | 16 |
2019 | • James White, N.E. | 263-1 | 72-645-5 | 202.6 | 18 |
2000 | • Richie Anderson, NYJ | 63-0 | 88-853-2 | 191.6 | 26 |
2001 | • Larry Centers, Buff. | 160-2 | 80-620-2 | 182.0 | 23 |
2015 | • Theo Riddick, Det. | 133-0 | 80-697-3 | 181.0 | 19 |
2013 | • Darren Sproles, N.O. | 220-2 | 71-604-2 | 177.4 | 23 |
2000 | • Larry Centers, Was. | 103-0 | 81-600-3 | 169.3 | 28 |
2019 | • Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 213-0 | 79-456-3 | 163.9 | 27 |
—Ian Allan