Will it be Ronald Jones or KeShawn Vaughn in Tampa Bay’s backfield? Maybe neither. Reports suggest the Buccaneers have at least some interest in Devonta Freeman.
Specifically, Bruce Arians says the Bucs would have interest in signing the former Atlanta back, but that his price was too high. That led Freeman to post on Twitter, “I read in the media that Tampa Bay Buccaneers are interested. A number of teams are interested, but we can’t negotiate through the media, the Buccaneers can reach out to me directly.”
Tampa Bay doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room under the cap. It currently ranks next-to-last in available cap space. But there is some interest there.
While Freeman isn’t on a team, he’s definitely better than the second running back on the majority of teams. Personally, I like him better than the back the Falcons brought in to replace him (Todd Gurley).
Definitely in the passing game, Freeman looks a lot better than Gurley. Below see the list of the 36 running backs who saw 40 targets in the passing game last year. Gurley ranks last and next-to-last in completion percentage and average yards per pass play (YPT = Yards Per Target). Freeman ranks 6th in completion percentage (but just average in YPT).
| RUNNING BACKS: CATCH RATES | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Pct | YPT |
| DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 41 | 36 | 292 | 8.1 | 0 | 88% | 7.1 |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 45 | 39 | 253 | 6.5 | 5 | 87% | 5.6 |
| Royce Freeman, Den. | 50 | 43 | 256 | 6.0 | 1 | 86% | 5.1 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 108 | 92 | 993 | 10.8 | 8 | 85% | 9.2 |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 78 | 66 | 461 | 7.0 | 1 | 85% | 5.9 |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 70 | 59 | 410 | 7.0 | 4 | 84% | 5.9 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 63 | 53 | 519 | 9.8 | 0 | 84% | 8.2 |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 44 | 37 | 285 | 7.7 | 1 | 84% | 6.5 |
| Jalen Richard, Oak. | 43 | 36 | 323 | 9.0 | 0 | 84% | 7.5 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 97 | 81 | 533 | 6.6 | 1 | 84% | 5.5 |
| Jaylen Samuels, Pitt. | 57 | 47 | 305 | 6.5 | 1 | 82% | 5.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 142 | 116 | 1005 | 8.7 | 4 | 82% | 7.1 |
| J.D. McKissic, Det. | 42 | 34 | 233 | 6.9 | 1 | 81% | 5.5 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 63 | 50 | 509 | 10.2 | 3 | 79% | 8.1 |
| Latavius Murray, N.O. | 43 | 34 | 235 | 6.9 | 1 | 79% | 5.5 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 47 | 37 | 266 | 7.2 | 2 | 79% | 5.7 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 45 | 35 | 287 | 8.2 | 3 | 78% | 6.4 |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 40 | 31 | 309 | 10.0 | 0 | 78% | 7.7 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 47 | 36 | 370 | 10.3 | 4 | 77% | 7.9 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 55 | 42 | 296 | 7.1 | 1 | 76% | 5.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale, T.B. | 46 | 35 | 286 | 8.2 | 0 | 76% | 6.2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 71 | 54 | 420 | 7.8 | 2 | 76% | 5.9 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 100 | 76 | 522 | 6.9 | 0 | 76% | 5.2 |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 104 | 79 | 456 | 5.8 | 3 | 76% | 4.4 |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 58 | 44 | 320 | 7.3 | 0 | 76% | 5.5 |
| James White, N.E. | 95 | 72 | 645 | 9.0 | 5 | 76% | 6.8 |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia.-Ariz. | 68 | 50 | 345 | 6.9 | 0 | 74% | 5.1 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 49 | 36 | 278 | 7.7 | 0 | 73% | 5.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 48 | 35 | 196 | 5.6 | 0 | 73% | 4.1 |
| Chris Thompson, Was. | 58 | 42 | 378 | 9.0 | 0 | 72% | 6.5 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 68 | 49 | 474 | 9.7 | 3 | 72% | 7.0 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 73 | 52 | 438 | 8.4 | 2 | 71% | 6.0 |
| Duke Johnson, Hou. | 62 | 44 | 410 | 9.3 | 3 | 71% | 6.6 |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 41 | 29 | 194 | 6.7 | 2 | 71% | 4.7 |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 43 | 30 | 234 | 7.8 | 0 | 70% | 5.4 |
| • Todd Gurley, LAR | 49 | 31 | 207 | 6.7 | 2 | 63% | 4.2 |
Freeman isn’t the back he used to be. He was something special back in 2015 and 2016, violently breaking tackles while scoring 27 TDs in 31 games. He’s not that anymore. He’s been worn down by that physical playing style and might be prone to concussions. Note that he was also helped along in those seasons by playing under Kyle Shanahan (we all saw last year, how Shanahan can design offenses that make modest running backs look very good).
While it wasn’t all his fault, Freeman wasn’t effective as a runner last year, averaging under 3.6 yards per carry. There were 45 running backs last year with at least 100 attempts, and only two of those backs averaged fewer yards per attempt. (One, oddly, was the running back Freeman potentially would replace in Tampa Bay – Peyton Barber.)
| RUNNING BACKS: YARDS PER CARRY | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 137 | 772 | 5.64 | 8 |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 133 | 711 | 5.35 | 2 |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 151 | 775 | 5.13 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 303 | 1,540 | 5.08 | 16 |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 123 | 623 | 5.07 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram, Balt. | 202 | 1,018 | 5.04 | 10 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 298 | 1,494 | 5.01 | 8 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 287 | 1,387 | 4.83 | 15 |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia.-Ariz. | 170 | 817 | 4.81 | 8 |
| Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 242 | 1,150 | 4.75 | 7 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 171 | 797 | 4.66 | 5 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 217 | 1,003 | 4.62 | 6 |
| Alexander Mattison, Min. | 100 | 462 | 4.62 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy, K.C. | 101 | 465 | 4.60 | 4 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 236 | 1,084 | 4.59 | 16 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 179 | 818 | 4.57 | 3 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 250 | 1,135 | 4.54 | 13 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 224 | 1,011 | 4.51 | 7 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 301 | 1,357 | 4.51 | 12 |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 111 | 498 | 4.49 | 5 |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 247 | 1,091 | 4.42 | 8 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 278 | 1,230 | 4.42 | 7 |
| Jordan Howard, Phil. | 119 | 525 | 4.41 | 6 |
| Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 245 | 1,070 | 4.37 | 6 |
| Latavius Murray, N.O. | 146 | 637 | 4.36 | 5 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 265 | 1,152 | 4.35 | 3 |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 107 | 460 | 4.30 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 211 | 898 | 4.26 | 5 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 132 | 557 | 4.22 | 3 |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 172 | 724 | 4.21 | 6 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 278 | 1,137 | 4.09 | 5 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 116 | 464 | 4.00 | 4 |
| Tevin Coleman, S.F. | 137 | 544 | 3.97 | 6 |
| Benny Snell, Pitt. | 108 | 426 | 3.94 | 2 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 223 | 857 | 3.84 | 12 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 162 | 612 | 3.78 | 8 |
| Royce Freeman, Den. | 132 | 496 | 3.76 | 3 |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 247 | 912 | 3.69 | 7 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 242 | 889 | 3.67 | 6 |
| Frank Gore, Buff. | 166 | 599 | 3.61 | 2 |
| DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 108 | 387 | 3.58 | 3 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 113 | 403 | 3.57 | 3 |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 184 | 656 | 3.57 | 2 |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 245 | 789 | 3.22 | 3 |
| • Peyton Barber, T.B. | 154 | 470 | 3.05 | 6 |
But if Freeman were to land in Tampa Bay, I would think his experience would give him an edge over Jones and Vaughn. (And I suppose we can also toss in Dare Ogunbowale, who played on third downs there last year.) I would think they would use a committee approach, but that they would expect Freeman to be their main back.
I would think they would trust Freeman more than those guys in pass protection. Although there would be some irony there, since a Freeman mistake in pass protection was pivotal in Tom Brady being able to pull off the most famous comeback of his career. But my hunch is that Freeman right now would be way more trusted in pass protection than any of those other running backs.
Last year the Bucs used a one-two punch of runners (Jones and Peyton Barber), with Ogunbowale playing in obvious passing situations. If they were to sign Freeman, I think it would be a similar kind of a deal, with Freeman getting more carries than Jones (at least initially) and also picking up some (perhaps most) of the passing-downs work.
Freeman definitely will be playing somewhere. Earlier, the Seahawks tried to sign him to a free agent deal. When the two sides couldn’t agree on terms, they instead signed Carlos Hyde. Reports have also linked the Eagles and Jets to Freeman. Philadelphia is lean at tailback, with pretty much just a pair of youngsters (Miles Sanders, Boston Scott) so that’s probably the team most likely to sign Freeman. I suppose the 49ers could also be considered a possibility; he’s played for Shanahan in the past, and there could be a need to add another back there (with the 49ers having traded Matt Breida).
If I’m walking into a draft today, Freeman would be one of the top 45 running backs on my board.
—Ian Allan