Perhaps you saw the story on ESPN recently where their writers participated in an exercise to re-draft the NFL from scratch. This year's draft order was used, so the Cincinnati Bengals were able to select Patrick Mahomes No. 1 overall. The next three picks (Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson) were also franchise quarterbacks. Plenty of controversy after that.
Here's the entire draft, with commentary by participants and analysis afterward. It's easy to criticize and there's been plenty of that across the internet, so I'm not going to spend a lot of time bashing picks. With a dearth of actual sports news and events going on, people have to keep busy.
Since we all know how important quarterbacks are, it's those selections which are the most interesting. It's hard to defend the top-14 selections of Drew Brees and Tom Brady, even with the stated goal of winning a Super Bowl in five years. Brees has one year left as a starter and Brady might have two. Would they really be good options for a team over younger -- albeit far less accomplished -- passers with more of a future?
So instead I'm looking at a couple of younger selections: Drew Lock at No. 15 and Teddy Bridgewater at No. 18. Is building a startup franchise around either of these players any better than doing so around a 40-something? At least Brady and Brees should have one good year coming up. Do Lock and Bridgewater?
I pulled out the per-game numbers for all quarterbacks who started at least 5 games a year ago. (Making 5 the threshold enabled me to include Lock and Bridgewater.) And I wanted to evaluate these guys as passers, so I ditched the rushing production.
In that regard, Bridgewater at least wound up as a top-15 (fantasy) passer, using a scoring system with 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 4 points for touchdowns. Lock came in 28th, down with a lot of either unproven passers or guys who have shown to be mediocre or worse.
| QUARTERBACKS PER GAME (PASSING ONLY), 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | PYd | TDP | FF Pts |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 8 | 312.4 | 2.38 | 25.1 |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 319.3 | 2.06 | 24.2 |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 11 | 270.8 | 2.45 | 23.4 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 306.4 | 1.88 | 22.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 14 | 287.9 | 1.86 | 21.8 |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 15 | 297.7 | 1.73 | 21.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 10 | 259.8 | 2.20 | 21.8 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 256.9 | 1.94 | 20.6 |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 250.8 | 2.00 | 20.5 |
| Philip Rivers, LAC | 16 | 288.4 | 1.44 | 20.2 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 208.5 | 2.40 | 20.0 |
| Jared Goff, LAR | 16 | 289.9 | 1.38 | 20.0 |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 256.8 | 1.73 | 19.8 |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 252.4 | 1.69 | 19.4 |
| Teddy Bridgewater, N.O. | 5 | 241.0 | 1.80 | 19.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 16 | 248.6 | 1.69 | 19.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 250.1 | 1.63 | 19.0 |
| Kirk Cousins, Min. | 15 | 240.2 | 1.73 | 18.9 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia. | 13 | 259.1 | 1.46 | 18.8 |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 253.6 | 1.50 | 18.7 |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 13 | 268.8 | 1.23 | 18.4 |
| Kyle Allen, Car. | 12 | 252.3 | 1.42 | 18.3 |
| Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 253.4 | 1.31 | 17.9 |
| Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 237.4 | 1.50 | 17.9 |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 232.6 | 1.46 | 17.5 |
| Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 16 | 239.2 | 1.38 | 17.5 |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 232.6 | 1.25 | 16.6 |
| Drew Lock, Den. | 5 | 204.0 | 1.40 | 15.8 |
| Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 15 | 209.2 | 1.13 | 15.0 |
| Case Keenum, Was. | 8 | 193.6 | 1.25 | 14.7 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 193.1 | 1.25 | 14.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 15 | 196.1 | 1.20 | 14.6 |
| Mason Rudolph, Pitt. | 8 | 190.5 | 1.25 | 14.5 |
| Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 6 | 196.5 | 1.17 | 14.5 |
| Joe Flacco, Den. | 8 | 227.8 | .75 | 14.4 |
| David Blough, Det. | 5 | 196.8 | .80 | 13.0 |
| Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 175.0 | 1.00 | 12.8 |
| Devlin Hodges, Pitt. | 6 | 146.2 | .67 | 10.0 |
On Lock's behalf, he is very much unproven -- just 5 starts, so not nearly as much of a track record as the guys down there who look clearly poor (Mariota, Trubisky), are just backups (Pittsburgh and Detroit guys) or washed-up (Flacco). He's also slotted just behind a pair of No. 1 overall picks in Mayfield and Murray. And the guy that drafted him in this exercise is the Broncos beat guy, who may have felt some pressure to support the home team.
For those wondering, rushing production being factored in makes these guys look even less inspiring. Bridgewater would then show up 25th, and Lock 30th. I left that out because I wanted to consider these guys as franchise passers, but when considering the all-around fantasy value, they grade out as even worse options.
Carolina and Denver both have some intriguing receivers: DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy. That will help these guys. At the same time, those players need to be docked some in drafts for the quarterbacks they'll be working with. Optimistic to think they'll be helped by the guy behind center.
--Andy Richardson