T.J. Hockenson had a lackluster rookie season, but I’m not giving up on him. He plays a position where guys are far more likely to break out in their second season.
The first year was pretty meager. Hockenson started the season with 6 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown at Arizona, but he caught only 26 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown in his remaining 11 games.
But I expect he’ll take a nice step forward this year. I think he’ll be more comfortable mentally, and that the Lions will look for him to do more. And that’s pretty common at the tight end position.
With tight ends, only four rookies in the last 20 years have put up top-10 numbers. Only 13 (including those four) have finished with top-15 numbers. (This is using PPR scoring).
But if you look at second-year guys, the hit rate goes way up. In the last 20 years, 21 tight ends have put up top-10 numbers – five times as many. And 42 (those 21, plus another 21) have at least finished with top-15 numbers. That’s almost four times as many.
While Hockenson hasn’t done much yet, I think he looks like a pretty safe choice for at least top-15 numbers. Other second-year tight ends I would put in that group: Noah Fant and Jace Sternberger. Irv Smith, Dawson Knox and Josh Oliver are in the second-year tight end group, but I think they’re another level down.
On the chart here, I've got the rookies tagged with black dots. All of the other guys are players in their second season.
1ST- & 2ND-YEAR TIGHT ENDS WITH TOP-15 NUMBERS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
2011 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 90 | 1,327 | 14.7 | 18 | 330.9 | 1 |
2011 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 99 | 1,310 | 13.2 | 11 | 296.0 | 2 |
2018 | George Kittle, S.F. | 88 | 1,377 | 15.7 | 5 | 258.7 | 3 |
2004 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 81 | 964 | 11.9 | 13 | 255.4 | 2 |
2004 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 87 | 980 | 11.3 | 6 | 223.0 | 3 |
2011 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 79 | 910 | 11.5 | 7 | 216.5 | 3 |
2019 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 64 | 852 | 13.3 | 10 | 209.2 | 5 |
2002 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 68 | 836 | 12.3 | 6 | 193.4 | 1 |
2005 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 71 | 774 | 10.9 | 7 | 190.4 | 4 |
2014 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 67 | 862 | 12.9 | 6 | 189.2 | 6 |
2002 | • Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 74 | 894 | 12.1 | 2 | 175.4 | 3 |
2017 | • Evan Engram, NYG | 64 | 722 | 11.3 | 6 | 173.6 | 5 |
2010 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 71 | 722 | 10.2 | 4 | 167.2 | 8 |
2014 | Larry Donnell, NYG | 63 | 623 | 9.9 | 6 | 161.3 | 12 |
2015 | Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 58 | 510 | 8.8 | 8 | 160.1 | 11 |
2012 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 53 | 493 | 9.3 | 9 | 158.3 | 11 |
2007 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 63 | 768 | 12.2 | 3 | 157.8 | 7 |
2010 | • Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 42 | 546 | 13.0 | 10 | 156.6 | 11 |
2009 | Jermichael Finley, G.B. | 55 | 676 | 12.3 | 5 | 152.6 | 12 |
2011 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 56 | 596 | 10.6 | 6 | 151.6 | 14 |
2009 | John Carlson, Sea. | 51 | 574 | 11.3 | 7 | 150.4 | 13 |
2019 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 58 | 607 | 10.5 | 5 | 148.7 | 10 |
2008 | • John Carlson, Sea. | 55 | 627 | 11.4 | 5 | 147.7 | 7 |
2014 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 58 | 702 | 12.1 | 3 | 146.2 | 13 |
2018 | David Njoku, Cle. | 56 | 639 | 11.4 | 4 | 143.9 | 9 |
2010 | • Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 45 | 563 | 12.5 | 6 | 142.0 | 14 |
2008 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 54 | 574 | 10.6 | 5 | 141.4 | 9 |
2013 | • Tim Wright, T.B. | 54 | 571 | 10.6 | 5 | 141.3 | 13 |
2013 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 52 | 608 | 11.7 | 4 | 140.8 | 14 |
2008 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 56 | 778 | 13.9 | 1 | 139.8 | 10 |
2019 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 51 | 570 | 11.2 | 5 | 138.0 | 12 |
2009 | Fred Davis, Was. | 48 | 509 | 10.6 | 6 | 134.9 | 15 |
2007 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 49 | 549 | 11.2 | 5 | 133.9 | 11 |
2005 | Ben Troupe, Ten. | 55 | 530 | 9.6 | 4 | 132.0 | 10 |
2015 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 47 | 537 | 11.4 | 5 | 130.7 | 13 |
2007 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 52 | 509 | 9.8 | 4 | 126.9 | 12 |
2017 | Hunter Henry, LAC | 45 | 579 | 12.9 | 4 | 126.9 | 14 |
2003 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 49 | 598 | 12.2 | 3 | 126.8 | 4 |
2018 | Evan Engram, NYG | 45 | 577 | 12.8 | 3 | 126.3 | 13 |
2001 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 36 | 322 | 8.9 | 9 | 122.2 | 8 |
2005 | • Heath Miller, Pitt. | 39 | 459 | 11.8 | 6 | 120.9 | 14 |
2018 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 34 | 565 | 16.6 | 5 | 120.5 | 15 |
2008 | • Dustin Keller, NYJ | 48 | 535 | 11.2 | 3 | 119.5 | 14 |
2003 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 48 | 535 | 11.2 | 2 | 113.5 | 9 |
2019 | • Noah Fant, Den. | 40 | 562 | 14.1 | 3 | 113.0 | 15 |
2002 | • Randy McMichael, Mia. | 39 | 485 | 12.4 | 4 | 112.3 | 9 |
2002 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 36 | 455 | 12.6 | 5 | 111.5 | 10 |
2004 | • Chris Cooley, Was. | 37 | 314 | 8.5 | 6 | 104.4 | 12 |
2006 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 34 | 393 | 11.6 | 5 | 103.3 | 13 |
2003 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 38 | 409 | 10.8 | 4 | 102.9 | 13 |
2004 | L.J. Smith, Phil. | 34 | 377 | 11.1 | 5 | 101.7 | 13 |
2006 | • Owen Daniels, Hou. | 34 | 352 | 10.4 | 5 | 99.2 | 14 |
2001 | Anthony Becht, NYJ | 36 | 321 | 8.9 | 5 | 98.1 | 13 |
2004 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 25 | 423 | 16.9 | 5 | 97.3 | 15 |
2001 | • Eric Johnson, S.F. | 40 | 362 | 9.1 | 3 | 96.2 | 15 |
—Ian Allan