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Factoid

Lamar Jackson

Can Jackson do it again in 2020?

I’m not trying to put the old kiss of death on Lamar Jackson. He was fun to watch last year. But anytime a player puts up the kind of numbers he did, the natural tendency to see a decline the following year.

In the case of quarterbacks putting up at least 40 touchdowns, the decline tends to be severe.

We’ve seen 24 quarterbacks put up at least 40 combined touchdowns. Two thirds of those guys finished with at least 17 fewer touchdowns the following season. None of them came back and put up even more touchdowns in the following season.

Brett Favre came closest, with 41 touchdowns in both the 1995 and 1996 seasons. And a pair of active quarterbacks have put together some back-to-back successful seasons. Drew Brees finished with 47, 44 and 42 touchdowns in a three-year run ending in 2013. And Tom Brady put up 42 and 38 touchdowns in the 2011-12 seasons.

I expect Jackson will run less this year. I’m confident we’ll see a decline there. But as little as he passed for the final two thirds of last season, I expect he’ll finish with more passing yards (fewer touchdowns, but more passing yards).

As active as Jackson is as a runner, durability is a huge concern. Three quarterbacks on the list below have declined by over 30 touchdowns, and all those guys were affected by injuries (Brady, Steve Young, Daunte Culpepper).

QUARTERBACKS WITH AT LEAST 40 TOUCHDOWNS
YearPlayerPassRunTotalNext YrDecline
1984Dan Marino, Mia.4804830-0-3018
1986Dan Marino, Mia.4404426-1-2717
1994Steve Young, S.F.3574220-3-2319
1995Brett Favre, G.B.3834139-2-410
1996Brett Favre, G.B.3924135-1-365
1998Steve Young, S.F.366423-0-339
1999Kurt Warner, St.L.4114221-0-2121
2000Daunte Culpepper, Min.3374014-5-1921
2004Daunte Culpepper, Min.392416-1-734
2004Peyton Manning, Ind.4904928-0-2821
2007Tom Brady, N.E.502520-0-052
2011Matthew Stafford, Det.4104120-4-2417
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4534839-2-417
2011Tom Brady, N.E.3934234-4-384
2011Drew Brees, N.O.4614743-1-443
2012Aaron Rodgers, G.B.3924117-0-1724
2012Drew Brees, N.O.4314439-3-422
2013Peyton Manning, Den.5515639-0-3917
2013Drew Brees, N.O.3934233-1-348
2014Andrew Luck, Ind.4034315-0-1528
2014Aaron Rodgers, G.B.3824031-1-328
2015Cam Newton, Car.35104519-5-2421
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4044416-0-1628
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.5025226-2-2824
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.36743?-?-??

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index