I’m not trying to put the old kiss of death on Lamar Jackson. He was fun to watch last year. But anytime a player puts up the kind of numbers he did, the natural tendency to see a decline the following year.
In the case of quarterbacks putting up at least 40 touchdowns, the decline tends to be severe.
We’ve seen 24 quarterbacks put up at least 40 combined touchdowns. Two thirds of those guys finished with at least 17 fewer touchdowns the following season. None of them came back and put up even more touchdowns in the following season.
Brett Favre came closest, with 41 touchdowns in both the 1995 and 1996 seasons. And a pair of active quarterbacks have put together some back-to-back successful seasons. Drew Brees finished with 47, 44 and 42 touchdowns in a three-year run ending in 2013. And Tom Brady put up 42 and 38 touchdowns in the 2011-12 seasons.
I expect Jackson will run less this year. I’m confident we’ll see a decline there. But as little as he passed for the final two thirds of last season, I expect he’ll finish with more passing yards (fewer touchdowns, but more passing yards).
As active as Jackson is as a runner, durability is a huge concern. Three quarterbacks on the list below have declined by over 30 touchdowns, and all those guys were affected by injuries (Brady, Steve Young, Daunte Culpepper).
| QUARTERBACKS WITH AT LEAST 40 TOUCHDOWNS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | Run | Total | Next Yr | Decline |
| 1984 | Dan Marino, Mia. | 48 | 0 | 48 | 30-0-30 | 18 |
| 1986 | Dan Marino, Mia. | 44 | 0 | 44 | 26-1-27 | 17 |
| 1994 | Steve Young, S.F. | 35 | 7 | 42 | 20-3-23 | 19 |
| 1995 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 38 | 3 | 41 | 39-2-41 | 0 |
| 1996 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 39 | 2 | 41 | 35-1-36 | 5 |
| 1998 | Steve Young, S.F. | 36 | 6 | 42 | 3-0-3 | 39 |
| 1999 | Kurt Warner, St.L. | 41 | 1 | 42 | 21-0-21 | 21 |
| 2000 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 33 | 7 | 40 | 14-5-19 | 21 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 39 | 2 | 41 | 6-1-7 | 34 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 49 | 0 | 49 | 28-0-28 | 21 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 50 | 2 | 52 | 0-0-0 | 52 |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 41 | 0 | 41 | 20-4-24 | 17 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 45 | 3 | 48 | 39-2-41 | 7 |
| 2011 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 39 | 3 | 42 | 34-4-38 | 4 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 46 | 1 | 47 | 43-1-44 | 3 |
| 2012 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 39 | 2 | 41 | 17-0-17 | 24 |
| 2012 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 43 | 1 | 44 | 39-3-42 | 2 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 55 | 1 | 56 | 39-0-39 | 17 |
| 2013 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 39 | 3 | 42 | 33-1-34 | 8 |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 40 | 3 | 43 | 15-0-15 | 28 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 38 | 2 | 40 | 31-1-32 | 8 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 35 | 10 | 45 | 19-5-24 | 21 |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 40 | 4 | 44 | 16-0-16 | 28 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 50 | 2 | 52 | 26-2-28 | 24 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 36 | 7 | 43 | ?-?-? | ? |
—Ian Allan