If you select Kyler Murray, it’s with the hope he’ll bust out in his second year. And I think there’s some chance that happens.
Murray was pretty solid as a rookie. He’ll likely be more confident, knowledgeable and composed now, and they’ve bolstered their receiving corps with DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins butted heads at times with Bill O’Brien, apparently, but is probably still one of the league’s five best receivers (at least).
If Murray is one of this year’s very best quarterbacks, it won’t be a surprise. He seems to be the 3rd, 4th or 5th quarterback chosen in the drafts I see. In most leagues, there’s a least one owner who believes he’s going to have a big year.
And we’ve seen a lot of similar quarterbacks in recent years break out in their second year. The key, breakout-type quarterback in each of the last three years, in fact, has been a second-year player – Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Over the past 20 years, 25 quarterbacks have finished with top-5 numbers after not ranking in the top 20 the previous year. A third of those guys have been second-year players.
Murray isn’t eligible to join that list, of course. After starting all of last year and putting up nice rushing production, he was the 6th-best quarterback last year, cumulatively speaking. But things are looking up for Arizona’s young star.
| STAR QUARTERBACKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE TOP 20 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk | Prv |
| 2000 | Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 3,937 | 33 | 470 | 7 | 421.9 | 1 | 75 |
| 2000 | Donovan McNabb | 2 | 3,365 | 21 | 629 | 6 | 355.7 | 5 | 35 |
| 2001 | Aaron Brooks | 3 | 3,832 | 26 | 358 | 1 | 339.4 | 4 | 29 |
| 2002 | Michael Vick | 2 | 2,936 | 16 | 777 | 8 | 338.1 | 4 | 34 |
| 2002 | Drew Bledsoe | 10 | 4,359 | 24 | 67 | 2 | 332.7 | 5 | 45 |
| 2003 | Marc Bulger | 4 | 3,845 | 22 | 75 | 4 | 313.8 | 5 | 29 |
| 2005 | Eli Manning | 2 | 3,762 | 24 | 80 | 1 | 300.1 | 4 | 36 |
| 2006 | Marc Bulger | 7 | 4,301 | 24 | 44 | 0 | 317.5 | 5 | 23 |
| 2006 | Jon Kitna | 10 | 4,208 | 21 | 156 | 2 | 322.0 | 3 | 70 |
| 2007 | Derek Anderson | 3 | 3,787 | 29 | 70 | 3 | 332.4 | 5 | 42 |
| 2008 | Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 4,038 | 28 | 207 | 4 | 362.6 | 2 | 64 |
| 2009 | Matt Schaub | 6 | 4,770 | 29 | 57 | 0 | 362.2 | 3 | 21 |
| 2010 | Michael Vick | 10 | 3,018 | 21 | 676 | 9 | 358.5 | 5 | 48 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 1 | 4,051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 448.9 | 3 | -- |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford | 3 | 5,038 | 41 | 78 | 0 | 427.7 | 5 | 42 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | 10 | 4,381 | 38 | 269 | 2 | 412.0 | 2 | 26 |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles | 2 | 4,428 | 35 | 310 | 2 | 406.4 | 3 | 21 |
| 2015 | Carson Palmer | 13 | 4,671 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 382.0 | 5 | 31 |
| 2016 | Andrew Luck | 5 | 4,240 | 31 | 341 | 2 | 386.1 | 4 | 27 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | 18 | 4,577 | 32 | 28 | 0 | 363.7 | 3 | 21 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 5,097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 1 | 53 |
| 2018 | Deshaun Watson | 2 | 4,165 | 26 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 | 5 | 27 |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck | 7 | 4,593 | 39 | 148 | 0 | 405.9 | 4 | inj |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | 2 | 3,127 | 36 | 1,206 | 7 | 463.0 | 1 | 30 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston | 5 | 5,109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 | 2 | 21 |
—Ian Allan