Kansas City signed Patrick Mahomes to a 10-year contract yesterday. It's either $450 million, $477 million or $503 million, depending on which source you want to go with (and if you really care); suffice to say it's a lot. What you're not seeing much of is anyone saying he isn't worth it.
Mahomes in his first three seasons (and just two as a starter) has a league MVP and a Super Bowl championship on his resume. He's the NFL's best quarterback, and he's off to a fantastic start to his career. The question is, is it the best-ever?
Looks like it.
Using the play index finder at pro-football-reference.com, I pulled out the per-game passing numbers for the first three years of every quarterback's career since the merger. Minimum of 30 starts, so about two seasons worth of games.
By that measure, Mahomes blows away the field. Passing yards per game, passing touchdowns, quarterback rating -- he's been a lot better in his first three seasons than anyone else. (Only Dan Marino, for touchdowns, has been particularly close in any of those three categories.)
| QB PER GAME PASSING NUMBERS, FIRST THREE SEASONS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tm | Yrs | G | Rate | Y/G | TD/G |
| Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 2017-2019 | 31 | 108.9 | 303.6 | 2.5 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 2012-2014 | 48 | 86.6 | 269.9 | 1.8 |
| Marc Bulger | LAR | 2002-2004 | 36 | 89.7 | 267.6 | 1.6 |
| Dan Marino | MIA | 1983-1985 | 43 | 96.4 | 265.8 | 2.3 |
| Jameis Winston | TAM | 2015-2017 | 45 | 87.2 | 258.6 | 1.5 |
| Peyton Manning | IND | 1998-2000 | 48 | 85.4 | 256.0 | 1.8 |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 2017-2019 | 38 | 101.0 | 255.7 | 1.9 |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 2016-2018 | 40 | 92.5 | 253.8 | 1.8 |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 2016-2018 | 38 | 94.7 | 252.1 | 1.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 2018-2019 | 30 | 85.9 | 251.7 | 1.6 |
| Blake Bortles | JAX | 2014-2016 | 46 | 79.6 | 244.4 | 1.5 |
| Jay Cutler | DEN | 2006-2008 | 37 | 87.1 | 243.9 | 1.5 |
| Drew Bledsoe | NWE | 1993-1995 | 44 | 67.9 | 239.9 | 1.2 |
| Carson Palmer | CIN | 2004-2006 | 45 | 91.5 | 239.3 | 1.7 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 2014-2016 | 47 | 87.9 | 238.2 | 1.7 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 2011-2013 | 48 | 85.7 | 236.7 | 1.7 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2011-2013 | 48 | 86.4 | 235.4 | 1.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 2012-2014 | 48 | 84.0 | 234.4 | 1.3 |
| Jeff Garcia | SFO | 1999-2001 | 45 | 91.5 | 230.2 | 1.6 |
| Mark Rypien | WAS | 1988-1990 | 33 | 84.5 | 229.3 | 1.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 2016-2018 | 48 | 96.0 | 226.6 | 1.4 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 2015-2017 | 42 | 88.6 | 225.6 | 1.4 |
| Sam Bradford | RAM | 2010-2012 | 42 | 77.3 | 223.3 | 1.1 |
| Aaron Brooks | NOR | 2000-2002 | 40 | 79.4 | 223.0 | 1.6 |
| Jim Kelly | BUF | 1986-1988 | 44 | 81.7 | 222.1 | 1.3 |
| Ken O'Brien | NYJ | 1984-1986 | 41 | 88.1 | 219.0 | 1.4 |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 2012-2014 | 37 | 90.6 | 218.8 | 1.1 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 2008-2010 | 46 | 86.9 | 218.7 | 1.4 |
| Josh Freeman | TAM | 2009-2011 | 41 | 79.0 | 217.0 | 1.2 |
| Mark Brunell | JAX | 1994-1996 | 31 | 82.6 | 213.9 | 1.1 |
| Jim Everett | LAR | 1986-1988 | 33 | 79.4 | 213.5 | 1.5 |
| Vinny Testaverde | TAM | 1987-1989 | 35 | 59.1 | 213.0 | 1.1 |
| Joe Flacco | BLT | 2008-2010 | 48 | 87.9 | 212.6 | 1.3 |
| Warren Moon | HOU | 1984-1986 | 45 | 69.1 | 211.9 | 0.9 |
| Jake Plummer | ARI | 1997-1999 | 38 | 67.0 | 211.9 | 1.1 |
| Bernie Kosar | CLE | 1985-1987 | 40 | 84.6 | 211.6 | 1.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 2017-2019 | 41 | 85.8 | 208.6 | 1.2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 2004-2006 | 41 | 87.9 | 207.8 | 1.3 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 2012-2014 | 48 | 98.6 | 207.3 | 1.5 |
| Jay Schroeder | WAS | 1985-1987 | 36 | 72.6 | 206.8 | 1.1 |
| Tom Brady | NWE | 2000-2002 | 32 | 85.9 | 206.7 | 1.4 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIN | 2014-2017 | 30 | 86.3 | 205.0 | 0.9 |
| Don Majkowski | GNB | 1987-1989 | 36 | 76.3 | 203.1 | 1.1 |
| Jason Campbell | WAS | 2006-2008 | 36 | 80.4 | 201.2 | 1.0 |
| Derek Anderson | CLE | 2006-2008 | 31 | 75.1 | 199.8 | 1.4 |
| Chris Miller | ATL | 1987-1989 | 31 | 68.1 | 198.2 | 0.9 |
| Brett Favre | GNB | 1991-1993 | 33 | 77.3 | 197.9 | 1.1 |
| Byron Leftwich | JAX | 2003-2005 | 40 | 80.8 | 197.1 | 1.1 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 2004-2006 | 41 | 73.2 | 196.3 | 1.3 |
| Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 2009-2011 | 47 | 73.2 | 195.9 | 1.2 |
| Chad Henne | MIA | 2008-2010 | 32 | 75.3 | 195.2 | 0.8 |
| John Elway | DEN | 1983-1985 | 42 | 69.0 | 194.1 | 1.1 |
| Boomer Esiason | CIN | 1984-1986 | 41 | 87.5 | 193.5 | 1.3 |
| Tony Banks | RAM | 1996-1998 | 44 | 70.4 | 189.4 | 0.8 |
| Gus Frerotte | WAS | 1994-1996 | 36 | 73.7 | 189.0 | 0.8 |
| Jim Zorn | SEA | 1976-1978 | 40 | 59.4 | 188.5 | 1.1 |
| Quincy Carter | DAL | 2001-2003 | 31 | 70.0 | 188.4 | 0.9 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 2013-2015 | 31 | 72.3 | 188.3 | 0.9 |
| Neil O'Donnell | PIT | 1991-1993 | 40 | 80.5 | 186.4 | 1.0 |
| Troy Aikman | DAL | 1989-1991 | 38 | 70.5 | 186.4 | 0.8 |
| Steve DeBerg | SFO | 1978-1980 | 39 | 63.1 | 185.1 | 0.9 |
| David Carr | HOU | 2002-2004 | 44 | 72.5 | 184.9 | 0.8 |
| Tim Couch | CLE | 1999-2001 | 38 | 74.0 | 183.4 | 1.0 |
To be fair, passing production numbers are skewed in favor of more recent quarterbacks. Passing production is up league-wide, and rule changes are more favorable to quarterbacks (and offenses) than they used to be. You can see that from the table, which helps Baker Mayfield and even Blake Bortles show up favorably (at least in term of yards, which is how I sorted it).
But there are some all-time greats up near the top too; Dan Marino, Peyton Manning. Looks far more likely that Mahomes is on that career track than that of Marc Bulger or Jay Cutler.
Deshaun Watson also shows up favorably in this table (and Jameis Winston, but he won't necessarily start any games this year). Watson might be the next quarterback to sign a monster contract. Will be mildly interesting to see if his agent presumes to try to approach Mahomes' deal.
--Andy Richardson