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Factoid

Rookie RBs: big college producers

Odds of instant success for Edwards-Helaire, Taylor

It was a great group of incoming rookies, with 26 running backs and wide receivers selected in the first three rounds. With the pandemic, it will be harder than usual for those players to make an impact, but there should be some impact rookies, especially at running back (where the learning curve isn't as steep and injuries are more prevalent).

I took a look at the last decade's worth of running backs drafted in the first three rounds, wondering if big college production translated to big rookie year numbers. Since 2010, there have been 82 running backs selected in the first three rounds of drafts. Of those players, 34 put up huge numbers in their final year of college -- at least 1,800 total yards. That includes six of the incoming 2020 rookies. How did the previous 28 fare in their initial seasons?

About a third of them (10) did very little -- less than 500 total yards. That includes one 2019 rookie, Darrell Henderson. It also includes a player who was having a very good rookie season until getting hurt (Dalvin Cook).

Almost as many (8) had big rookie seasons; 1,000-plus total yards. The same number finished in the top 25 (PPR) at their position that year. That's where franchise guys like Barkley, Elliott, Bell and McCaffrey show up. But note that half of that group was drafted in the first round, which tends to get you into lineups quicker. Just one first-rounder this year (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, pictured).

By that measure, you could guess that 1-2 (probably no more than 2) of those 1,800-yard college backs (Edwards-Helaire, Taylor, Dobbins, Moss, Dillon and Bowden) will finish their rookie seasons with significant numbers.

Table shows final year of college total yards and touchdowns, and then rookie year numbers (sorted by yardage).

ROOKIE NUMBERS, BIG COLLEGE PRODUCERS (2010-PRESENT)
YearRdPlayerTot(C)TD(C)RunRecTotTDRk
20181Saquon Barkley, NYG19032113077212028152
20161Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.20272316313631994162
20173Kareem Hunt, K.C.18781113274551782114
20121Trent Richardson, Clev.2017249503671317128
20132LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1960138603991259815
20171Christian McCaffrey, Car.191316435651108679
20113DeMarco Murray, Dall.1808208971831080230
20153David Johnson, Ariz.2089195814571038137
20143Tre Mason, St.L.217924765148913530
20153Duke Johnson, Clev.207313379534913224
20172Joe Mixon, Cin.181216626287913433
20151Melvin Gordon, S.D.274032641192833045
20101Ryan Mathews, S.D.193019678145823731
20152Ameer Abdullah, Det.188022597183780344
20143Terrance West, Clev.27774267364737541
20132Montee Ball, Den.190222559145704443
20142Bishop Sankey, Tenn.217421569133702244
20162Derrick Henry, Tenn.231028490137627545
20181Rashaad Penny, Sea.23832541975494268
20102Toby Gerhart, Minn.202828322167489158
20172Dalvin Cook, Minn.22532035490444272
20173D'Onta Foreman, Hou.23511532783410274
20153Tevin Coleman, Atl.21771539214406179
20123Ronnie Hillman, Den.19812033062392167
20121David Wilson, NYG18381035834392551
20193Darrell Henderson, LAR22042514737184098
20122LaMichael James, S.F.201519125291540116
20112Mikel Leshoure, Det.1893200000--
20202Jonathan Taylor, Ind.225526?????
20202J.K. Dobbins, Balt.225023?????
20202A.J. Dillon, G.B.188015?????
20201Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.186717?????
20203Lynn Bowden, L.V.181614?????
20203Zack Moss, Buff.180417?????

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index