You can present Strength of Schedule in a variety of ways. If we focus on points being allowed by defenses, it looks like the Bucs, Chargers and Bears will play the easiest schedules this year.

That conclusion comes from looking at the expected performance numbers generated by Andy Richardson. You look at the points he expect each defense to allow, then plug those into the 2020 schedule. You add up those projected totals, and it provides some sense of what kind of schedules each team will play.

This is all, of course, tied to Andy’s projections for the 32 defenses. After looking at the various rosters and considering last year’s performance, he’s of the opinion that four defenses will allow fewer than 20 points per game – 49ers, Ravens, Bills, Steelers.

His worst defenses include the Panthers, Dolphins, Cardinals and Bengals.

POINTS ALLOWED BY DEFENSES
DefenseAvg
San Francisco18.7
Baltimore18.8
Buffalo19.0
Pittsburgh19.7
Minnesota20.3
Tennessee20.8
Dallas20.9
Denver21.0
New England21.2
Chicago21.4
LA Chargers21.7
New Orleans21.8
Indianapolis21.9
Green Bay22.0
Philadelphia22.2
Seattle22.5
Washington22.7
LA Rams22.8
Kansas City23.0
Tampa Bay23.1
NY Jets23.3
Houston23.5
Cleveland24.0
Jacksonville24.3
Atlanta25.0
Las Vegas25.3
NY Giants25.5
Detroit25.6
Cincinnati25.7
Arizona25.8
Miami26.0
Carolina26.5

If we take those defense numbers and plug them into the schedule, they show the Bucs projecting to play the leakiest defenses in the league, on average. Other teams with favorable schedules: Chargers, Bears, Saints.

This is good news if you’re in the group that expecting or hoping for a good season from 43-year-old Tom Brady.

The hardest schedules, if these forecasts are accurate, should belong to the Giants, Bengals, Texans and Titans.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-16)
TeamPoints
Tampa Bay23.45
LA Chargers23.41
Chicago23.19
New Orleans23.15
Carolina23.04
Minnesota23.02
Washington22.96
San Francisco22.93
Atlanta22.91
Denver22.90
Baltimore22.80
Kansas City22.76
Dallas22.76
Indianapolis22.71
Las Vegas22.70
Detroit22.68
Green Bay22.65
Buffalo22.64
Arizona22.56
Seattle22.54
Philadelphia22.50
New England22.48
LA Rams22.46
NY Jets22.44
Cleveland22.43
Pittsburgh22.43
Miami22.36
Jacksonville22.35
Tennessee22.31
Houston22.23
Cincinnati22.16
NY Giants22.13

If you’re interested more in the here-and-now, rather than what’s happening in November and December (will teams even be playing at that time?) you can look at the schedules for the first half of the season.

Looking at just the first eight games for each team, the Chargers, Bears and Cowboys, at least in theory, should play the easiest schedules.

The hardest schedules for September-October should belong to the Jets, Dolphins, Giants and Texans.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-8)
TeamPoints
LA Chargers24.21
Chicago24.03
Dallas23.81
San Francisco23.66
Carolina23.64
New Orleans23.59
Jacksonville23.59
Arizona23.28
Atlanta23.21
Buffalo23.21
Washington23.19
Tampa Bay23.15
Indianapolis22.93
Minnesota22.91
Baltimore22.84
Detroit22.81
Denver22.76
Cleveland22.59
Las Vegas22.54
New England22.35
Green Bay22.29
Cincinnati22.21
Seattle22.11
Pittsburgh22.09
LA Rams22.05
Tennessee21.86
Philadelphia21.85
Kansas City21.73
Houston21.65
NY Giants21.44
Miami21.40
NY Jets21.26

—Ian Allan