Now that Derrius Guice has been released and Washington's other running backs are lightly regarded veterans, it seemed time to take a closer look at rookie Antonio Gibson. No one will argue he has the most upside of the team's backs, and he's being drafted earliest -- at 5.12, if you can believe it, in one draft I heard of.
That's a little crazy, but a week or two from now his ADP will probably be around the seventh or eighth round, and definitely ahead of Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love and Peyton Barber. Is it crazy, or crazy like a fox?
The case for Gibson is compelling, so I'll start with that. He's got young AP type measurables: 6-0, 228 pounds, and he ran a 4.39 at the combine. Peterson himself is 35 years old, Love is working his way back from a knee injury that required multiple surgeries, and nobody actually wants to see Barber in the lineup. Then Ron Rivera said Gibson "has a skill set like Christian McCaffrey," something that probably caused his ADP to jump a round or two. It's fair in that Gibson was a wide receiver at Memphis, so his career receiving numbers (44-834-10) are more noteworthy than his rushing ones (33-369-4).
The negative is that he doesn't have a lot of experience, particularly as a running back. In two college seasons he had all of two games with more than 3 rushing attempts. Those were impressive (6 for 75 and 11 for 130 in a pair of games against Cincinnati, with a 65-yard touchdown), but the next time he handles the ball a dozen times as a running back will be the first.
Running backs coach Randy Jordan spoke to this inexperience over the weekend. "He is still clay when it comes to running back," Jordan said. Gibson will need time to learn protections and to diagnose blitzes, says the coach. He's also getting double duty, sitting in on meetings with both wide receivers and running backs. It's a lot on his plate.
Personally, I would be all over Gibson in a dynasty league. In my own dynasty league's rookie draft back in May, he was selected at 2.06 (I took Zack Moss a pick later).
But I think it's awfully risky counting on him being much more than a change of pace, seeing spot duty, for at least the first half of his rookie season, and maybe the whole season. Washington's line and offense isn't going to be good enough to stick the youngster behind it and give him huge holes to barrel through, and he's going to need to get comfortable with basic things like taking handoffs, following blockers, and of course pass protection.
Peterson isn't an exciting fantasy pick, and sometimes you win leagues by making the bold choice rather than the safe one. But I'm pretty sure Gibson will go far earlier in every draft than I'd select him, while Peterson will be available much later.
--Andy Richardson