Washington released Derrius Guice yesterday. If you just heard the initial report you might have thought it was injury related, with his first two seasons having been basically wiped out, but in fact it was for domestic-related off-field stuff. There's a new starter now.
Guice, most noticed, was pretty low in Fantasy Index's rankings anyway, and not just low but behind veteran Adrian Peterson. Guice's first two years made it hard to have any confidence he'd be able to stay on the field, while Peterson has had an amazing career that makes it seem plausible he'll have a credible season even at 35 years old, well after most running backs have hung things up.
Peterson won't play in passing situations, and he'll be tied to an offense led by a questionable quarterback. But that was the case a year ago, and he somehow managed to put up serviceable numbers at times. Strictly in terms of rushing, of course; he was outperformed by a number of backs who could add some receiving production. As a runner, he was still pretty good.
Table shows per-game numbers from all running backs that started at least half the time a year ago. When sorted by rushing production, only 18 backs averaged more yards per game last year. He's a year older, but the offense won't be any worse this season. No reason why he can't merit a pick as a 3rd or 4th running back.
| RUNNING BACK PER GAME, 2019 (RUSHING) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Att | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 20.2 | 102.7 | 13.7 | 116.4 | 1.20 |
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 18.6 | 93.4 | 17.4 | 110.8 | .50 |
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 18.6 | 88.5 | 12.8 | 101.2 | .54 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 17.9 | 86.7 | 62.8 | 149.5 | 1.21 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 18.8 | 84.8 | 26.3 | 111.1 | .88 |
| Chris Carson | 15 | 18.5 | 82.0 | 17.7 | 99.7 | .60 |
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 17.9 | 81.1 | 37.1 | 118.1 | .93 |
| Marlon Mack | 14 | 17.6 | 77.9 | 5.9 | 83.8 | .60 |
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 16.7 | 77.2 | 33.7 | 110.8 | .62 |
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 17.7 | 76.8 | 34.8 | 111.6 | .20 |
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 17.4 | 71.1 | 17.9 | 89.0 | .50 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 13.8 | 69.2 | 19.4 | 88.6 | .40 |
| Mark Ingram | 15 | 13.5 | 67.9 | 16.5 | 84.3 | 1.04 |
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 14.8 | 67.8 | 29.6 | 97.4 | 1.19 |
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 15.3 | 66.9 | 2.6 | 69.5 | .38 |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 11.2 | 66.6 | 19.2 | 85.8 | 1.00 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 16 | 14.0 | 63.2 | 12.3 | 75.4 | .44 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 12.1 | 60.2 | 12.2 | 72.4 | .22 |
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 14.1 | 59.9 | 9.5 | 69.3 | .33 |
| Kenyan Drake | 14 | 12.1 | 58.4 | 24.6 | 83.0 | .60 |
| Jordan Howard | 9 | 13.2 | 58.3 | 7.7 | 66.0 | .78 |
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 14.9 | 57.1 | 13.8 | 70.9 | .96 |
| Sony Michel | 16 | 15.4 | 57.0 | 5.9 | 62.9 | .44 |
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 12.2 | 56.9 | 38.1 | 95.0 | .43 |
| David Montgomery | 16 | 15.1 | 55.6 | 11.6 | 67.1 | .44 |
| LeVeon Bell | 15 | 16.3 | 52.6 | 30.7 | 83.3 | .29 |
| Miles Sanders | 16 | 11.2 | 51.1 | 31.8 | 82.9 | .40 |
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 13.5 | 51.0 | 24.7 | 75.7 | .75 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 8 | 14.1 | 50.4 | 15.9 | 66.3 | .50 |
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 13.1 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 76.1 | .43 |
| James Conner | 10 | 11.6 | 46.4 | 25.1 | 71.5 | .70 |
| Damien Williams | 11 | 10.1 | 45.3 | 19.4 | 64.6 | .64 |
| Ronald Jones | 16 | 10.8 | 45.3 | 19.3 | 64.6 | .38 |
| Tevin Coleman (C) | 14 | 9.8 | 38.9 | 12.9 | 51.7 | .50 |
| Gus Edwards (C) | 15 | 7.5 | 38.7 | 2.9 | 41.6 | .13 |
| David Johnson | 8 | 10.3 | 37.8 | 40.4 | 78.1 | .63 |
| Rashaad Penny (C) | 10 | 6.5 | 37.0 | 8.3 | 45.3 | .40 |
| LeSean McCoy (C) | 13 | 7.8 | 35.8 | 13.9 | 49.7 | .38 |
| Alexander Mattison (C) | 13 | 7.7 | 35.5 | 6.3 | 41.8 | .08 |
| Jamaal Williams (C) | 14 | 7.6 | 32.9 | 18.1 | 50.9 | .43 |
| Royce Freeman (C) | 16 | 8.3 | 31.0 | 16.0 | 47.0 | .25 |
| Tony Pollard (C) | 15 | 5.7 | 30.3 | 7.1 | 37.5 | .22 |
| Latavius Murray (C) | 14 | 7.0 | 29.7 | 10.6 | 40.4 | .14 |
| Peyton Barber | 16 | 9.6 | 29.4 | 7.2 | 36.6 | .46 |
| Austin Ekeler (C) | 12 | 6.3 | 28.1 | 60.3 | 88.3 | .58 |
| Duke Johnson (3rd) | 16 | 5.2 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 51.3 | .31 |
| Rex Burkhead (C) | 13 | 5.0 | 23.2 | 21.5 | 44.7 | .23 |
| Kareem Hunt (C) | 8 | 5.4 | 22.4 | 35.6 | 58.0 | .38 |
| James White (3rd) | 15 | 4.5 | 17.5 | 43.0 | 60.5 | .42 |
| Tarik Cohen (3rd) | 16 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 28.5 | 41.8 | .19 |
| Chris Thompson (3rd) | 11 | 3.4 | 12.5 | 34.4 | 46.9 | .00 |
| Jaylen Samuels (3rd) | 14 | 4.7 | 12.5 | 21.8 | 34.3 | .14 |
| Nyheim Hines (3rd) | 16 | 3.3 | 12.4 | 20.0 | 32.4 | .25 |
| Giovani Bernard (3rd) | 16 | 3.3 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 25.3 | .00 |
| Dion Lewis (3rd) | 15 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 19.1 | .07 |
| Jalen Richard (3rd) | 16 | 2.4 | 9.1 | 20.2 | 29.3 | .00 |
| Dare Ogunbowale (3rd) | 16 | .7 | 1.1 | 17.9 | 18.9 | .13 |
Peterson won't be the first Washington running back drafted in a lot of leagues. They've got two youngsters: third-rounder Antonio Gibson, and second-year back Bryce Love (who spent all of last year on IR). I fully understand that there is far, far more upside with those players. If you're looking to pull a league-winner out of Washington's backfield, Gibson is a better dice roll.
But those who've bet against Peterson over the years have been wrong a lot. Gibson barely played in college, so expecting him to immediately step into a huge role looks overly optimistic. Love has had multiple knee surgeries and is still working his way back from injury. Given the lack of a preseason, seems a lot more likely it'll be Peterson in 2020.
If you have the luxury of gambling on a possible breakout youngster (who also might barely play or be limited to some passing game work), Gibson is the guy to take. But if you want a running back you can very likely plug into a starting lineup the first half of the season, Peterson is the better bet.
--Andy Richardson