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A.J. Green

Older wideouts coming off injury

Yesterday, in a discussion of the bounce-back prospects for A.J. Green, a reader asked about how older wide receivers coming off injury have fared the next season. I said I'd look into it; here are those results.

I looked at the last 20 years, to keep the list manageable and not venture too much into the past (there have been some medical advances this century). I went with guys who missed at least half the season, appearing in 8 or fewer games prior to their injury, and were over the age of 30 (Green is 32).

I came up with 26 previous 30-something wideouts who missed at least half the year due to injury and returned the following year (Brandon Stokley did it twice). Slightly under half of those players (11) put up top-40 PPR numbers; four of them finished in the top 12. All injuries are different, and all 30-year-olds aren't the same, but a number of similar talents: Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Andre Johnson.

Table shows their games played and numbers (catches, yards, touchdowns) the year they got hurt, followed by their performance one year later (sorted by rank).

OLD WRS, COMING OFF INJURY, ONE YEAR LATER (2000-PRESENT)
YearPlayerAgeGNoYdsTDNoYdsTDRk
2015Jordy Nelson, G.B.300000971257142
2005Terrell Owens, Phil.327477636851180132
2011Andre Johnson, Hou.307334922112159846
2006Bobby Engram, Sea.337242901941147612
2004Terry Glenn, Dall.306244002621136715
2004Keenan McCardell, S.D.34731393170917917
2017Julian Edelman, N.E.32000074850621
2007Marvin Harrison, Ind.35520247160636536
2015Steve Smith Sr., Balt.36746670370799537
2001Ed McCaffrey, Den.331694169903237
2013Malcom Floyd, S.D.3226149052856640
2006Amani Toomer, NYG32832360359760341
2006David Patten, Was.325125054792343
2013Reggie Wayne, Ind.35738503264779250
2006Brandon Stokley, Ind.304885140635553
2011Brandon Stokley, NYG35217045544560
2018Ted Ginn, N.O.33517209230421281
2000Jake Reed, N.O.33716206027309181
2003Wayne Chrebet, NYJ30727289131397181
2012Nate Burleson, Det.31627240239461183
2010Donte Stallworth, Balt.308282022309295
2009Joey Galloway, N.E.3837670121730125
2002Oronde Gadsden, Mia.3161622804480143
2017Brandon Marshall, NYG335181540111361144
2001Herman Moore, Det.3234760000166
2009Kevin Curtis, Phil.3136770160175
2007Eddie Kennison, K.C.348131010000189
2018A.J. Green309466946????

Note that for Green I'm showing his 2018 numbers (he didn't play at all last year), so I'll concede he's got a longer period of time on the shelf than any of the other guys. But maybe that's a positive; the injury should be well in the rear-view mirror.

The other thing with Green is that this isn't a single injury. He played all 16 games in 2017, but has missed at least 6 games in three of the last four years. So there needs to remain a buyer beware tag on him.

But I think it's reasonable to say the potential is there for him to vastly outperform where he's being drafted in most leagues. Other, older wideouts of comparable talent and ability have done it.

--Andy Richardson

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