I’m not a big fan of Jalen Reagor. I don’t like his specific situation, and in general, the hit rate isn’t high for rookie receivers anyway.
Check out the chart below. It shows the last 40 wide receivers selected in the second half of the first round. That is, first-round guys, but setting aside the stellar franchise-type options like A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Mike Evans. Looking only at guys selected in the back half of the first round, you get these guys.
Of the last 40 of these picks, only 4 put up top-30 numbers in their first year. Only an additional 5 cracked the top 40. More commonly with these kind of prospects, they’re finishing their rookie seasons outside the top 70 and beyond. (That’s using PPR scoring).
While there are surprises once in a while, Reagor doesn’t look particularly likely to be an exception. In Philadelphia’s offense, I think Zach Ertz (who’s like a wide receiver) and Dallas Goedert will play big roles. DeSean Jackson will be their deep threat guy. And they’ve got other receivers there who have more experience in that offense.
I saw a blurb go by where Doug Pederson was talking about Greg Ward. I’m kind of thinking Ward will be better than Reagor this season. And maybe they get something out J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (who struggled as a rookie but now perhaps has a better command of what he’s doing).
Philadelphia also has Alshon Jeffery, but with him coming off a Lisfranc injury, he’s expect to begin the season on the PUP list (requiring him to miss at least their first six games).
Particularly with the pandemic factor this year, Reagor isn’t a player I would ever expect to select in a typical fantasy draft, even with a late-round pick.
Most likely with Reagor, they’ll mix him in for a limited package of plays here and there. Get him a few touches and see what happens. He caught 43 passes for 611 yards and 5 TDs last year at Texas Christian. His more notable season came the previous year, when he caught 72 for 1,061 yards and 9 TDs, while also running for 170 yards and 2 TDs.
On the chart, guys who put up top-40 numbers in their first season are tagged with dots.
| LATER FIRST-ROUND ROOKIE RECEIVERS (last 20 yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2000 | Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 48 | 678 | 14.1 | 3 | 135.4 | 49 |
| 2000 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 11.0 | 1 | 38.2 | 102 |
| 2001 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 27 | 345 | 12.8 | 0 | 61.5 | 86 |
| 2001 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 21 | 283 | 13.5 | 1 | 54.9 | 89 |
| 2001 | Santana Moss, NYJ | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 | 5.4 | 153 |
| 2002 | Ashley Lelie, Den. | 35 | 525 | 15.0 | 2 | 103.5 | 69 |
| 2002 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 23 | 319 | 13.9 | 1 | 62.0 | 95 |
| 2003 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. | 35 | 438 | 12.5 | 1 | 84.8 | 82 |
| 2004 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 7 | 160 | 22.9 | 1 | 29.0 | 122 |
| 2004 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 7 | 119 | 17.0 | 0 | 19.1 | 136 |
| 2005 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 36 | 432 | 12.0 | 5 | 114.9 | 53 |
| 2005 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 44 | 471 | 10.7 | 3 | 112.4 | 55 |
| 2005 | Roddy White, Atl. | 29 | 446 | 15.4 | 3 | 92.8 | 71 |
| 2006 | • Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 16.8 | 3 | 150.7 | 38 |
| 2007 | • Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 14.2 | 5 | 199.5 | 22 |
| 2007 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 37 | 576 | 15.6 | 3 | 112.6 | 66 |
| 2007 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 20 | 188 | 9.4 | 1 | 45.7 | 106 |
| 2009 | • Percy Harvin, Min. | 60 | 790 | 13.2 | 8 | 200.5 | 23 |
| 2009 | • Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 16.8 | 6 | 162.8 | 33 |
| 2009 | • Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 56 | 773 | 13.8 | 4 | 156.6 | 35 |
| 2009 | Kenny Britt, Ten. | 42 | 701 | 16.7 | 3 | 130.1 | 52 |
| 2010 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 45 | 561 | 12.5 | 8 | 149.1 | 42 |
| 2010 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 283 | 12.9 | 2 | 62.4 | 95 |
| 2011 | Jonathan Baldwin, K.C. | 21 | 254 | 12.1 | 1 | 52.4 | 108 |
| 2012 | Kendall Wright, Ten. | 64 | 626 | 9.8 | 4 | 151.0 | 45 |
| 2012 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 | .0 | 195 |
| 2013 | • Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | 45 | 469 | 10.4 | 9 | 161.7 | 38 |
| 2013 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 52 | 802 | 15.4 | 2 | 144.2 | 49 |
| 2014 | • Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 13.8 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 53 | 550 | 10.4 | 4 | 139.3 | 56 |
| 2015 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 12.3 | 1 | 57.3 | 101 |
| 2015 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 12.5 | 1 | 48.2 | 110 |
| 2015 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | 13.5 | 3 | 128.2 | 61 |
| 2016 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 2 | 66 | 33.0 | 0 | 8.6 | 169 |
| 2016 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 2.5 | 187 |
| 2018 | • Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 12.8 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2018 | • DJ Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 14.3 | 2 | 163.0 | 36 |
| 2019 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 46 | 584 | 12.7 | 7 | 146.4 | 46 |
| 2019 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 12 | 105 | 8.8 | 2 | 39.4 | 124 |
—Ian Allan