Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is Ronald Jones an above-average running back prospect? What's up with the new Cheat Sheet format? Auction strategies. Where's the love for Antonio Gibson? And more.
Question 1
In the latest rankings, you've got Ronald Jones ranked pretty high – above promising rookies like Akers and Taylor, as well as established vets like Gordon, Conner and Gurley. That seems very generous for a guy who hasn't really emerged yet after two years in the league. I realize he doesn't have much competition, so most of this ranking must be based on the Bucs’ scheme and the Tom Brady effect. Is it really safe to draft this guy like a bell-cow back?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
Jones was crappy as a rookie, averaging 1.9 yards per carry while hardly playing. I think it’s fair to wonder if he would have even made the team that year had he not been a second-round draft pick. It’s my belief that had he been an undrafted prospect out of Appalachian State, the Bucs would have released him, perhaps trying to sign him onto their practice squad. But Jones took a nice step forward last year, averaging 4.2 yards per carry – over a yard more than his running mate, Peyton Barber. I saw some games where he looked like an up-and-coming back. Despite carrying the ball only 172 times, Jones had 6 runs of 20-plus yards. Among backs with at least 100 carries, only seven had a higher ratio of 20-plus yard runs. On the downside, Jones was benched at one point after an error in pass protection. And only four backs lost yards on a higher percentage of runs – too much freelancing.
Bruce Arians says Jones is definitely the team’s No. 1 back, and I think that’s accurate. They don’t have much else at the position. LeSean McCoy is 32 and hasn’t been much of a factor the last two years. Third-rounder KeShawn Vaughn maybe, but he’ll need time to learn the offense and adjust to the pro game. I think it’s very reasonable to consider selecting Jones before Akers, Taylor, Gordon, Conner and Gurley.
Question 2
Can you please explain the new highlighting system being used on this year's cheat sheets? Maybe in this year's COVID-haze, I missed it. Thanks.
James Crawford (Atlanta, GA)
We’re trying to build a better mousetrap. With the color-coded overall, the attempt is to provide readers with a deeper overall list and more of a sense of how players stack up in the middle rounds. With the color coding, it should be easy to spot where the next player at that position is coming up. And there can be some ability to identify tiers. Some readers like it. (I hope most readers like). Some don’t like, and for them, we’ve got the players separated into positions like we also have in the past. In the new update format, we’ve got an overall top 219 listed on pages 1, 3 and 5. We’ve got by-position rankings on pages 2, 4 and 6. For those who want to look at all the exact projected numbers (whether per game, per season or per 16-game blocks) they can download the stat projection file from the “Your Stuff” area (it’s in an Excel format).
Question 3
With Derrius Guice released, leaving the near-retired Peterson the main cog for Washington, why are you guys not higher on Antonio Gibson? He seems like a top 20 RB in waiting.
Ryan Klein (Tinley Park, IL)
Maybe. The raw numbers are certainly impressive – a 228-pounder who ran a 4.39 at the combine. Washington F.T. selected him early in the third round, so it obviously has some interest in him. But I find it hard to believe a guy who carried the ball only 39 times as a college player (he was mostly a wide receiver at Memphis) is now going to show up and be a heavy-duty contributor from the get-go.
Question 4
You've mentioned previously that you feel Mahomes is a difference maker and worthy of consideration near the end of the first round/early second. If you were drafting today in a 12 team PPR draft with 6 points for passing TDs, at what point would you pull the trigger on Mahomes? I know what the cheat sheet says his ranking is but the rankings vs. where you'd actually select them can sometimes vary.
Mike Bayless ()
I definitely wouldn’t let him out of the top 5 overall. He would be in that top group, and I think he can be debated against any of the other four guys in that group. If you select Mahomes, you get out of worrying about things really going sour for Christian McCaffrey (great player the last two years, but he’s in a new offense and playing for a last-place team). I don’t think anybody selecting Patrick Mahomes will regret it at the end of the year.
Question 5
I’m in a 14-man PPR league that is switching from a draft to an auction, with a $200 budget. Roster is QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D and 5 bench. Any particular advice going into a draft like this?
JIM HIGGINS (Lafayette, CA)
Most of the 14 owners probably have limited experience with auctions. If that’s the case, I would expect there would be a good number who dramatically overspend for the best players. Most of the top 25 probably will be significantly overpaid. The difference-making values, therefore, will be elsewhere. I would think if you patiently watched the big-name talent go by early (stepping in only if you saw a value you really loved) you would be able to construct a roster including 12 players who would have been selected in the third to seventh rounds in a regular draft. And with that sort of depth, your team would be tough to beat.
That’s just my guess, of course. I haven’t met any of the GMs in your league. If a bunch of them are cautiously sitting back, then you’ll have to go the other route, spending early. Regardless, prior to the draft, you should carefully assemble a price list. Decide which 196 players should be purchased, and put a dollar figure on each of them, with those 196 players going for a combined $2,800. The price list is crucial because it simplifies the decision making during the auction – you’ve already decided what players are worth before you make those split-second bidding decisions.
We’ve got auction values available at the website, of course. You get to them by signing in, and then clicking on the “Your Stuff” link at the top of the page.
Your drafts from previous years should help in creating your auction values. By looking at previous years, you should have an idea of how the players would be selected (1 thru 196). For starters, let’s assume the final 60 players (picks 137 thru 196) will go for $1 each. That’s about four $1 players per team. Make note of the best QB, RB, WR, TE, K and Defense that’s included in that group of players. Those are your baseline guys. The values of the first 136 players is determined by measuring how much better they are than those baseline players at their positions.
On this front, another option to consider is combining a draft and an auction – a “drauction,” they call them. In the drauction, only a limited number of players are auctioned off – perhaps four per team. Then the remaining players are allocated using the traditional draft. Whatever team has the most money left after the initial auction gets to pick first in the draft portion of the evening. Drauctions are simplier than auctions.
Question 6
With the uncertainty created by COVID-19, how do you feel about drafting a quarterback-receiver combo like Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill or multiple starters from another team? Even if those players aren't sidelined by the virus, one or more of their team's games could be postponed by the league due to COVID-19 outbreaks. It would seem to me that this would be the year to diversify your roster as best you can.
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
Suppose you had two really good players. You know that they’re both going to miss two games. Would you rather have them both miss their games in the same two weeks? Under that scenario, you’re at full strength for 12 weeks, and playing with a definitely weakened roster for 2 weeks. Or would you prefer to have those missed games spread out? Under the second scenario, you would be at full strength for only 10 games, but would be affected by absences in four games. I don’t see a big difference between the two. For me, when it’s my turn to pick, I’m taking the player I’m most excited about. I won’t be make notable adjustments in attempts to diversify or manage bye weeks.
Question 7
12-team league. I can keep Miles Sanders, but he'll cost me a 1st-round pick. I pick 12th and I'm set at QB, WR and TE. Other RBs who will be available are: McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, Cook, Jacobs, Mixon, Gurley. I doubt any of them will make it to me. Should I keep him or gamble on him (or someone else) falling to me at 12?
Allan Miller (Mc Kees Rocks, PA)
I don’t think Sanders is a compelling player. On my board, I’ve got him as the 13th running back and the 20th player overall. I don’t know exactly how the league is structured, but I would think you would come out ahead of just seeing what’s there when the 12th pick arrives.
Question 8
Hope all is well with you and yours and everyone is healthy. I am in a PPR league. I am fortunate enough to have the first pick, which means I don’t pick again until 24/25. I know the consensus is CMAC at 1, but should I take Michael Thomas first overall?
Anthony Cillis (Lagrangeville, NY)
I’m not a big Christian McCaffrey fan. He’s playing for a lesser team (a last-place team, I’m pretty sure) and they’re putting in a new offense. I’m not sure he’ll be used as extensively as he’s been in the past. Matt Rhule has overseen rebuilds before, and in both cases, the teams got worse before they got better. Temple and Baylor went 2-10 and 1-11 in Rhule’s first seasons. So while I would select McCaffrey with the No. 1 pick, I would be very willing to listen to trade-down offers.
Question 9
We are going to try best-ball for obvious reasons. In our QB-heavy league, would it be smart to draft two top QBs early (say first 3-4 rounds) even though we only start one? Last season, 2nd-place in our league lost championship because he started the wrong QB. He had Watson and Jackson and started Watson last 3 weeks of the season.
Ben Hogevoll (Siletz, OR)
There are a lot of good quarterbacks out there. Take, for example, the last draft I was in – the Draft Sharks Invitational (hosted by DraftSharks.com). After the first 15 quarterbacks were chosen, the next 10 at that position were Newton, Mayfield, Roethlisberger, Tannehill, Garoppolo, Minshew, Burrow, Bridgewater, Cousins and Darnold. That’s a best-ball league, and one where teams can start two quarterbacks each week (so perhaps even more QB-heavy than yours). In that 12-team league, all of those quarterbacks where chosen between 6.03 and 10.02. I don’t have the exact specs on your league (I’m assuming it includes 6 points for TD passes) but in general, I would think you shouldn’t be giving any consideration to a second quarterback before the sixth round.
Question 10
The Index has talked up Gardner Minshew several times, and seems bullish on Jay Gruden as their new coordinator, but is very low on Leonard Fournette. I know the Jags have not picked up his 5th year option, and have been looking to trade him, but he did rush for over 1,100 yards last season, with 76 receptions, so he's a pretty important part of that offense (albeit only 3 total TDs). Right now, Fournette is ranked behind about 30 other backs, despite being a clear-cut starter with good durability in his three seasons. Is this simply because you expect the Jaguars to be very bad or is this residual bias from the Jag's trying to move him?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
You slipped in “good durability”. Where does that come from? Fournette has been in the league for three years. He missed half of 2018, and he missed three games as a rookie. He missed almost half of his final season at Louisiana State. I have him flagged as definitely below-average in injury potential. His attitude seems to be good. I saw a blurb go by last week where Fournette was talking about wanting to prove his worth by playing well this year. But I’m not crazy about the situation. The Jaguars are one of three teams that I consider to be pretty much a lead-pipe lock to finish in last place in their division. And in their new offense, I think they’ll be passing more and running less. While Fournette caught 76 passes last year, it’s my belief that he’s actually a below-average receiver. I don’t think they’ll be using him much in that capacity. They signed Chris Thompson, and I think he’ll be their primary third-down back.
Question 11
We are switching our Flex to a SuperFlex this year. In the past, we have had about 24-26 QBs taken, so most people backed up their QB and some carried 3. Now that it makes more sense to start 2 QBs, should I assume that all teams will carry 3 QBs and would 24-26 be worth more than minimum? We are an auction league, so trying to understand how to tweak the new values since QBs should weigh much higher than the past.
ERIC FEINGOLD (Garden City, NY)
Agreed. I would think everybody will want to have two good quarterbacks, and everyone will want to carry three. (If some are slow to pick their third quarterback, other teams will pick four.) With everyone wanting to use two quarterbacks every week, the top 24 are definitely going for more than $1. And I think there will be about four more who’ll also go for more than $1. I recently was in a SuperFlex draft (a 25-round monster, with 12 teams combining to make 300 picks). In that draft, 28 quarterbacks went in the top 130 overall. Quarterbacks 25 thru 28 (the best of the third quarterbacks) including Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Derek Carr and Philip Rivers. I would think those guys have value in your league; there would be a market for them. But then I would drop down to $1 for the remainder of the No. 3 quarterbacks (talking about guys like Tyrod Taylor, Fitzpatrick, Foles, Tua, T-Biscuit, Haskins, etc.) So as you play around with supply-demand numbers (while setting up your auction) I would start by operating under the assumption that 28 quarterbacks will go for more than $1 in the initial auction.
Question 12
I noticed KeShawn Vaughn Bucs rookie RB ranked 107 in Fantasy Index Magazine on PPR list. In August update he was ranked 209. That big of a drop because of McCoy and his being on COVID injury list?
Bob McKinlay (Casselberry, FL)
In the on-paper version of the magazine, Vaughn was the second Tampa Bay running back listed. Right now we’ve got him as their third guy, behind both Ronald Jones and LeSean McCoy. So in a typical fantasy league, where you’re drafting perhaps 70 running backs, I don’t believe Vaughn should be selected.
Question 13
Been a loyal reader since 1997 and FFI is still the best!! So it looks like we (might?) get an NFL season. Getting excited! Our league has changed settings for this year and I could use some help with the custom scoring profile to build my draft board; mainly how many chosen / how many over minimum for this league: 10 teams, 19 rounds, dual QB, full PPR: Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, K, DST; 8 bench spots.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
With it being just 10 teams, I would go with only 10 players each being selected at kicker and defense (there will also be warm-body options available on the waiver wire at those positions). So there will be 170 remaining other roster spots. With it being a double-quarterback league, I went with 32 being selected (everybody’s carrying 3, and there’s some nominal value in those 31st and 32nd guys). That leaves 138 other roster spots. If you look at the 110 highest scorers of those, regardless of position, you get 37 RB, 13 tight ends and 60 wide receivers. All of those guys need to be included. That leaves 28 more at-large spots. Of those, I went with 18 more running backs (allowing us to find homes for a bunch of those high-upside handcuff running backs), plus 5 more tight ends and 5 more wide receivers. So for my first stab, I’m going 32 QB, 55 RB, 18 TE, 65 WR, 10 K and 10 D. Then you can work backwards and declare a portion at each position to be minimum-value players. For those, you can scroll down the list until you get to the player who to you just feels like a $1.00 guy. He should be the best-available guy that you wouldn’t bid more than $1.00 for. Perhaps the 40th wide receiver, 12th tight end, 38th running back and 20th QB.
Question 14
Love the new rankings order by all players together. Do you see free agent Logan Ryan getting signed? I saw his agent told NFL teams to consider signing him to play as a safety. For us IDP leaguers will he be considered a cornerback or safety if signed as safety? I drafted him in April as a cornerback.
Bob McKinlay (Casselberry, FL)
Check your league’s bylaws. Ryan was a cornerback last year. That might make him eligible at that position. The team that signs him may instead use him at safety. If he winds up playing safety, he’ll likely finish with more tackles than all cornerbacks.