Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Damien Harris the key sleeper in 2020 drafts? How the rankings change with two quarterbacks -- and team quarterbacks. Trey Burton, Adrian Peterson, dynasty rankings and a lot more.

Question 1

There was an article on Tuesday noting that Damien Harris is looking good in Patriot practices while Sony Michel and Lamar Miller remain on the PUP list. I don't know much about Harris other than he was a healthy scratch for much of his rookie season, and he is not known for his receiving/pass protection abilities, although he does have that Alabama RB pedigree. Assuming all three backs return to health, a big if where Michel is concerned, does Harris have a good chance of winning the starting RB job? Then, with Newton being the likely QB, will the Patriots still feature a short-yardage RB that could score a lot of red zone TDs or will Newton be vulturing those away like he did with the Panthers? Do you expect the Index to be high on any of these three RBs (versus White and Burkhead) or should we just avoid trying to guess what Belichick will do?

Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)

If we’re talking PPR scoring, James White is the first New England running back to select. He might catch 70 passes. But setting him aside, I would select Harris before the others. He’s the only guy who’s healthy and participating in practices each day. I remember Harris looking very solid in a preseason game last year in Nashville. (That effort is still available online – to see it, search for “Damien Harris Titans”). He looks pretty good in that one, busting a few runs and catching 5 passes. They ended up redshirting him for most of his rookie season, but he’s presumably been working on his game. There was a blurb that went by a week or two ago where the position coach, Ivan Fears, was talking him up. If I’m drafting today, I would select Harris before either Michel or Miller.

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Question 2

Our 10-team league is going to starting 2 QBs. How does this change the draft strategy when I usually draft RBs early? Have the 3rd pick. Does this make Mahomes more valuable?

Troy Marshall (Hiawatha, IA)

Definitely. Everyone will want to have to have three viable quarterbacks. I would show up at the draft hoping to select Mahomes at No. 3 overall. In general, it brings the supply-demand in line with running backs. That said, everyone will also still want to get good running backs as well. There is some depth at quarterback; you might able to watch close to 20 players at that position get selected and still get a pair of good ones. I played around with the numbers some. To me, Mahomes and Jackson are the only two who look like locks for the first two rounds, with another eight selected in the top 45 overall (mostly in the third and fourth rounds). With everyone looking to select two and three at this position, I see another 15 chosen in the next 50. That’s 25 quarterbacks chosen in the top 95 overall (way more than if teams were starting just one).

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Question 3

My league is switching to team QBs for this year; how does that change your QB rankings? My first thoughts would be that NOS/Brees rises knowing that Winston is the backup, and CHI/MIA/LAC would move up by removing uncertainty over who wins those jobs.

Adam Holtz (Rochester, MN)

I wonder how Taysom Hill would be handled in such a league? Hill is listed as a quarterback on their roster. He caught 6 TDs last year, but on none of those plays was he lined up as a quarterback. Are we giving points for that? If we look purely at passing, I would go with Kansas City, New Orleans and Atlanta as the top 3 teams. That’s setting aside rushing production (with those going with Baltimore not getting anything when Lamar Jackson runs for 800-plus yards). Rankings here assume 4 points for touchdown passes, 1 for every 20 passing yards and minus-1 for each interception.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDPIntPts/G
Kansas City3052.48.4324.7
New Orleans2802.13.4322.1
Atlanta3001.87.8721.6
Tampa Bay2781.89.7720.7
Seattle2601.98.4220.5
Detroit2801.79.6720.5
Dallas2721.83.6720.3
Philadelphia2641.80.5519.9
Pittsburgh2731.771.0319.7
Indianapolis2611.75.8119.2
Green Bay2541.69.3019.2
San Francisco2611.73.8519.1
Baltimore2262.04.4519.0
LA Rams2771.47.9318.8
Las Vegas2591.49.5018.4
Arizona2531.55.8018.1
Tennessee2401.68.6918.0
Minnesota2451.55.4718.0
Houston2431.60.8517.7
Jacksonville2421.49.7717.3
New England2351.52.7517.1
Cleveland2391.50.9417.0
NY Jets2361.54.9717.0
Cincinnati2471.38.9716.9
Buffalo2301.51.7216.8
NY Giants2371.45.9716.7
Denver2331.43.9616.4
Miami2341.36.9416.2
Chicago2281.37.7516.1
LA Chargers2201.29.6015.6
Carolina2181.24.8015.1
Washington2241.18.9515.0

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Question 4

What do you think of Trey Burton, now that he is with Indianapolis? They managed to get unbelievable production out of Eric Ebron, and now he is paired with Philip Rivers, who loved throwing to his TE with the Chargers. Could be a sleeper pick?

GEORGE CHURCHFIELD (Phoenix, AZ)

Ebron caught 13 touchdowns in 2018. Frank Reich says he thinks they might be able to do some of the same things with Burton. Reich and Burton worked together, recall, in Philadelphia’s Super Bowl season. I would not draft Burton as a starting tight end. And when I stack my board, it’s hard to even get Burton in the top 24 (making him a second tight end). But definitely worth a last-round type flyer pick as a player who could dramatically outperform his draft position. I would be interested in having him on my roster for the first few weeks of the season. That said, I participating in about a half-dozen drafts, and I haven’t actually selected Burton yet. (In a couple of drafts I’ve seen, Benny Snell wasn’t even selected, and I am more interested in Snell than Burton.)

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Question 5

We have a 12 team PPR league that does not require a TE (QB, 3WR, 2RB, Flex, D, K). In our annual snake draft, if you take a rookie and keep him on your roster the entire season, you have the right to keep him in that same round the next year (e.g. an owner in 2019 drafted Josh Jacobs in 3rd Rd and can keep 2020 Jacobs with his 3rd Rd pick). My question is how much should this facet of our draft increase the value of 2020 rookies? Also, in your opinion what rookies RB/WR will project to have a much larger role in 2021?

Chris George (Mc Donald, PA)

Many of them, I would think. Joe Burrow might be good enough to be a serviceable backup this year. I think he’s got a decent chance of being a top-20 quarterback. So I would elevate him above comparable later-round quarterbacks (Minshew, Cousins, etc.) because Burrow comes with that added dimension of maybe entering 2021 as a top-10 quarterback that you’re getting at a big discount. With the other rookie quarterbacks (Tagovailoa, Herbert) I think you’re looking at last-round type guys. With most of the rookie running backs, they’ll likely be better next year. But how much do you want to give away this year to maybe get some added value in 2021? I wouldn’t be too eager to throw a lot of resources at rookie running backs (who tend to be overvalued in most drafts). CEH is an exception. In the unlikely event he slips to the second, that would be a really nice choice – good chance he enters 2021 as a top-5 prospect. With all of the pass catchers, there’s a good chance they’ll be moving up in value next year, but you’ve got to store them for a year to collect that prize. Those roster spots are valuable. Often they allow you to carry an additional backup running back, giving you another opportunity to potentially pull some quality starts out of thin air. So when you’re drafting a rookie receiver, it should be with the hope he can give you a little something this year. Jeudy, Lamb and Jefferson look like those kind of guys. With the injury situation in San Francisco, Brandon Aiyuk might be the rookie receiver you should select first.

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Question 6

Howdy, 15th year of readership for me, thank you for the excellent analysis. I have the option to keep Derrick Henry for $38 or Devin Singletary for $7 (in my custom rankings they are worth $50.18 and $28.04, respectively). Who's the better value to keep? And if their values change in future updates, how do I choose? Is it always just the guy who is the most dollars below his "retail" price?

Kevin Torgerson (Fargo, ND)

I’m participating in a slow-crawl auction. Singletary in that league was “worth” about $28, but I was able to get him for $21. So had I been able to lock in on him for $7, it would have been for $21 under what I felt he was worth, but I guess only $14 under his true market value (what others were willing to spend on him). That $14 might be more in line with the difference between Henry’s current salary ($38) and what he might go for if you let him back on the market ($48? $52?). If you really like Henry or really like having a franchise-type back to build around, it would be reasonable to keep him around at $38. You’re not going to find another Henry-type back (Elliott, Kamara, CEH) for $38. If I were in the league, I would be more apt to have some confidence that Singletary will emerge as a legit back. If you keep him for $7, you’ll have more ability to do other things in the auction. You’ll be better situated to pounce if some other great deal on a franchise player comes along, and you’ll have more ability to create depth.

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Question 7

I appreciate that you appreciate Adrian Peterson, but he has a lot against him. He has Dwayne Haskins for a QB, so the box will be stacked by every defense in the NFL. He's old enough to have a mid-life crisis, runs behind an inoffensive Line and plays for the Washington Blanks (that's what I call them). Considering all of that, wouldn't it be best to let some other owner worry about Peterson and avoid Washington altogether. I even faded Scary Terry this year, and this year I think I'd rather have Latavious Murray or Zack Moss than the starting back in DC.

Ed Burke ()

I’m not proposing Peterson will be a top-10 rusher. When I talk about choosing Peterson, I’m thinking of him relative to running backs like Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, D’Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson. There are 29 other teams, and they all have at least one back who’s higher on my board than Peterson. But I think Peterson will have some serviceable games. I think he’s Washington’s best back, and I like the way that coaching staff (when it was in Carolina) tended to stay away from the RBBC approach, instead heavily featuring one running back.

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Question 8

Can you give your top 20 RBs in a dynasty format? Are there any plans to do dynasty rankings?

Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)

We’ve got Cheat Sheet updates that go out every Monday morning. The rankings in those are geared towards 2020 – just this season. On Thursdays, however, there’s a revised version of the same product. In the Thursday version, there’s a page with player rankings for Dynasty Leagues. (I believe we go 80 deep at running back and wide receiver). For the version that went out yesterday, the top 20 running backs were as follows …

TOP 20 DYNASTY RUNNING BACKS
RkTmPlayerAge
1.CARChristian McCaffrey24
2.NYGSaquon Barkley23
3.DALEzekiel Elliott25
4.NOAlvin Kamara25
5.KCClyde Edwards-Helaire21
6.MINDalvin Cook25
7.LVJosh Jacobs 22
8.TENDerrick Henry26
9.CINJoe Mixon24
10.CLENick Chubb25
11.LACAustin Ekeler25
12.ARIKenyan Drake26
13.PHIMiles Sanders 23
14.CHIDavid Montgomery 23
15.GBAaron Jones26
16.BUFDevin Singletary 23
17.INDJonathan Taylor21
18.HOUDavid Johnson29
19.SEAChris Carson26
20.DENMelvin Gordon27

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Question 9

I have the 2nd pick in a ppr league. I am taking Barkley. With the 19th and 22nd pick, I usually take a rb and wr. This year you have Kittle and Kelce rated high as well as Mahomes. Would I be foolish to take either Kittle or Kelce as my 2nd pick and Mahomes on the 3rd? What do you suggest?

TOM RICHARDS (Clarkston, MI)

If all three of those players are available, I would give strong thought to selecting Mahomes at 2.09, followed by whatever tight end makes it to 3.02. I understand that there are plenty of good quarterbacks to go around, but Mahomes isn’t just a good quarterback. He’s a guy who very likely will throw 40-plus touchdowns. All three of those players look very likely to finish in the top 3 at their positions. If you instead take a running back at 2.09, you could be looking at somebody like Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones. Are you certain those backs will be better than the running backs who likely will make it to 4.09 and 5.02? Think David Montgomery, Chris Carson and Devin Singletary.

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Question 10

Did you do the Defenses strength of schedule again this year, and if so where can I find it.

Stephen Burch (Liverpool, NY)

There’s a menu at the top of the page. Go to “Quick Hits” and pull down to Strength of Schedule. I ran a chart for defenses on Sunday.

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Question 11

Got a keeper question for you. 12 teams, non-ppr. Keep one in the same round drafted last year; I have the 5th pick, snake draft. Other teams' announced keepers so far are McCaffrey, Henry, Elliott, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kamara. I can keep one of the following: Jacobs in the 2nd, Ridley in the 5th, K.Hunt in the 12th. What do you think?

Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)

With 12 players being protected, it’s like there’s an extra round in there. The fifth pick is actually the 17th pick. So Jacobs looks like a very solid choice. He would go about 10th overall in a traditional draft, and you have the opportunity to select him with the 29th player slot. That seems to provide more sizzle than Calvin Ridley. With Ridley, you’d be picking him up at spot 65, about 30 picks after I think he should be chosen. Hunt would be an outside-the-box consideration only if you were allowed to also protect him at the cost of a 12th-round pick next year. (I believe Hunt will be a starting tailback heading into the 2021 season.)

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Question 12

Keeper TD-heavy league question. Who would you keep between Dobbins or Damien Harris? Dobbins will be backing up an aging Ingram while Harris has a plethora of backs in front of him particularly injury prone Michel.

Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)

If we’re looking at just this year, I’m definitely going with Damien Harris. If we’re looking long-term, I’m definitely going with J.K. Dobbins. I don’t think Dobbins will be a big factor this year, but Mark Ingram is on the wrong side of 30 and Gus Edwards to me looks like more of a banger and contributor rather than a starting-type guy. When the Ravens selected Dobbins late in the second round, they indicated that they were shocked that he was still around, indicating they considered him to be more of a first round type of guy.

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Question 13

I am in a 12-team league. We use a third-round reversal draft. We draw out of a hat for draft position and you can select the position you want. If you could select the optimum draft position in a third-round reversal, what would it be?

Frank Catalano (Houston, PA)

The third-round reversal format is a more equitable format. No. 1 spot still grades out as the best, but not by as much. And there are more spots that are closer to average. See the chart below. On this one, I went with full PPR scoring and measured the top 60 players. So the 60th player (Michael Gallup) is worth nothing – he’s the worst-case scenario. For the remaining 59 guys, I’m looking not at their position, but their value relative to Gallup. How much more production they give you than Gallup (after accounting for different positions). The average team “value” is 189 using both methods. But in the standard snake draft, 75 percent of the teams are at least 6 points away from the average. In the Third-Round Reversal, only three teams are at least 6 points away from the average.

3RD-ROUND REVERSAL (top 60)
Slot3RRSnakeChange
# 1202213-12
# 2193202-10
# 3191197-5
# 1219118012
# 71911874
# 1119118110
# 81891836
# 91881816
# 101871825
# 4187193-6
# 6182186-4
# 5177183-6

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Question 14

I am trying to figure out which of the following 3 guys would you keep due to these scenarios: Keep Ezekiel Elliott and lose the 9th overall pick. Keep Austin Ekeler and lose 52nd pick. Keep AJ Brown and lose the 149th pick.

Pete Kelly (Evergreen Park, IL)

Let’s do it this way. I was in a Fanex Draft earlier in the meet. PPR scoring. I will go look at picks 9, 52 and 149 and see who the best-available player was at the time (who I would have picked). Then we’ll compare their value to what you would get by selecting Zeke, Ekeler or Brown. At pick 9, I could have drafted Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook. You would get 30 points better by keep Elliott. At pick 52, you could have selected Terry McLaurin. You could have gotten 45 points better by having Ekeler locked into that spot. And if you’re picking 149th, you’re looking at a throwaway-type guy like Darrell Henderson who may or may not still be on your team in October. Henderson might become the starting tailback for the Rams, or he could be a second-string (or even third-string) guy. A.J. Brown, I’ve got as 64 points better than Henderson. It’s Brown or Ekeler, in my opinion, with Elliott definitely third.

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Question 15

In a keeper league and can keep 2 of these 4, will lose picks 9 and 10. DK Metcalf, Mark Andrews, Raheem Mostert, Kareem Hunt. Was thinking of keeping Mostert and Hunt or DK, with the thought of getting Hayden Hurst in the 7th round or do I just lock up Andrews. Thoughts?

Tim Sonday (Middleton, WI)

For me, Hunt’s not in the discussion. You get to keep two, and I don’t see a big difference between Metcalf, Andrews and Mostert. On my board, the answer can vary by format. Metcalf and Andrews are the better long-term investments if you’re looking beyond 2020.

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Question 16

I have been playing fantasy football for the last 5 years. I've won 2 leagues with your help (the whole staff). I don't know what best ball and dynasty is. I see that in best ball there is no waivers. If your team has multiple players out what happens? do you lose by default? If you could give an overview or some info on how these formats work. As always your time is much appreciated!

Darren Castillo (Placentia, CA)

With best ball, everyone drafts a roster of players. There are no starting lineups. Instead, you automatically get your highest-scoring lineup each week, based on how your players performed. Attrition can be key; if you draft three quarterbacks and they’re all out with byes or injuries, you take a zero at that position. That’s been the traditional approach, anyway. A reader mentioned a few weeks back that his league is attempting a modified best-ball format. They’re giving teams their maximized lineup each week (that is, no starting lineups) but they’re also allowing franchises to adjust their rosters each week. That seems like it could be pretty cool. With dynasty, when you draft a player, you keep players indefinitely. You draft Joe Burrow, for example, and he can be on your roster not just for 2020 but for his entire career. In such a format, fantasy GMs have to decide which players to release to make room for new NFL rookies on their roster.

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Question 17

I use the custom auction rankings on the site. Our minimum bid is $0, so you can usually snag a couple players at $0 at the end of the draft. For this season, we have expanded our roster size by 2 spots. I am thinking not to mess with my usual auction settings and just assume that I will be able to add a couple $0 players from my list. But this will mean the total number of players selected in our league will not match the total players included in my auction settings ... I think I am on the right track but what do you think?

Michael Vanoostveen (St. Davids, ON)

When calculating accurate auction values, you definitely want the appropriate amount of money being spent on the appropriate number of players at each position. If there are 12 teams each selecting 20 players, let’s make sure we’re talking about 240 total players. You’ve got the quirky rule, with the opening bid starting at $0. To account for this, I would add an extra dollar for every roster spot on the front end. That is, if teams are allowed to spend $200 dollars on 20 players, change each team’s payroll to $220 initially. Proceed through the setup process, setting the baselines at each position. At the end of the process, subtract $1 from the value of every player selected, and all of those $1.00 players will change to $0.00 players.

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Question 18

When a ream is way behind, we know it's good for the receiving backs as defenses let them catch passes in front of the defense. What about the other guys who typically run the shorter routes? Do tight ends and slot receivers also see more balls thrown to them when their team is trailing by a bunch?

Richard Loppnow (Ephrata, WA)

That makes sense to me. If I had 2-3 hours to work with, I would roll out the numbers for all tight ends and slot receivers. We would check how they did in wins vs. losses vs. big losses. I don’t have the time right now to take that kind of deep dive, but we can look at some of the numbers from last year. In this area, we run into the problem of trying to define a slot receiver. Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins last year ran a lot of short routes inside; are we calling them slots? Jarvis Landry has been a textbook slot receiver for most of his career but ran more downfield routes last year. So let’s do it this way. Below is the list of 69 instances last year in which a tight end or wide receiver caught at least 7 passes and also averaged under 10 yards per catch. That is, they were running primarily short routes (the kind that defenses tend to be willing to give up when protecting a lead). Of those 69 games, 37 came in games where the player’s team lost. The other 32 came in wins. That’s not a big difference – just slightly more in losses than wins. In the char below, I’ve got the winning players in bold.

SHORT-RANGE PLAYERS WITH 7 CATCHES, 2019
PlayerOppScoreTgtNoYdsTDPPR
WR Marvin Jones, DETMINL 30-42131093443.3
WR Cooper Kupp, LARat CLEW 20-131211101233.1
WR Julian Edelman, NWECLEW 27-1311878227.8
TE Zach Ertz, PHISEAL 9-17141291127.1
WR Emmanuel Sanders, DENCHIL 14-16131198126.8
WR Nelson Agholor, PHIDETL 24-2712850225.0
WR Allen Robinson, CHINORL 25-36161087124.7
WR Davante Adams, GNBat MINW 23-101613116024.6
WR Mohamed Sanu, NWEat BALL 20-37141081124.1
WR Jamison Crowder, NYJBUFL 16-17171499023.9
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHIat MINL 20-38121076123.6
WR Keenan Allen, LACat KANL 21-3110982123.2
TE Tyler Higbee, LARat DALL 21-441412111023.1
TE Vance McDonald, PITSEAL 26-287738222.8
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOUOAKW 27-241311109021.9
TE Travis Kelce, KANat CHIW 26-39874121.4
WR Keenan Allen, LACKANL 17-2412871121.1
WR Jamison Crowder, NYJat BUFW 13-610866120.6
WR T.Y. Hilton, INDATLW 27-2410865120.5
TE Jacob Hollister, SEAat SFOW 27-2410862120.2
WR Robert Woods, LARARIW 31-2412767119.7
WR Julian Edelman, NWENYJW 30-1410762119.2
WR Greg Ward, PHIat WASW 37-279761119.1
WR Julian Edelman, NWEat BALL 20-37111089018.9
WR Michael Thomas, NORat LARL 9-27131089018.9
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOUat JAXW 26-311848118.8
TE Will Dissly, SEAat ARIW 27-108757118.7
WR DJ Chark, JAXat HOUL 12-139755118.5
WR DJ Moore, CARTAML 14-2014989017.9
WR Tyler Lockett, SEAat PITW 28-26121079017.9
TE Cameron Brate, TAMNORL 17-34141073017.3
WR Davante Adams, GNBat SFOL 8-3712743117.3
TE Austin Hooper, ATLat MINL 12-289977016.7
WR DJ Chark, JAXLACL 10-4510975016.5
WR Allen Robinson, CHIat MINW 21-1912971016.1
WR Christian Kirk, ARICARL 20-38121059015.9
WR Christian Kirk, ARIat NORL 9-3111879015.9
WR Russell Gage, ATLTAML 22-3510876015.6
TE Zach Ertz, PHIat ATLL 20-2416872015.2
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARIat TAML 27-308871015.1
WR Robert Woods, LARat CARW 30-2713870015.0
WR Dede Westbrook, JAXat TENL 20-429869014.9
TE Gerald Everett, LARat PITL 12-1712868014.8
WR Keenan Allen, LACat OAKL 24-2611868014.8
WR Odell Beckham, CLEat ARIL 24-3813866014.6
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOUat KANW 31-2412955014.5
WR Tyler Boyd, CINat SEAL 20-2112860014.0
TE Darren Waller, OAKDENW 24-168770014.0
WR Russell Gage, ATLat TAMW 28-2213768013.8
TE Jason Witten, DALat NYGW 37-189858013.8
TE Travis Kelce, KANat NWEW 23-169766013.6
TE Zach Ertz, PHIat GNBW 34-278765013.5
TE Delanie Walker, TENat JAXL 7-209764013.4
TE George Kittle, SFOat TAMW 31-1710854013.4
WR Sammy Watkins, KANMINW 26-2310763013.3
TE Travis Kelce, KANMINW 26-239762013.2
WR Chris Godwin, TAMat SEAL 34-409761013.1
WR Christian Kirk, ARIat LARL 24-3110760013.0
WR Russell Gage, ATLSEAL 20-279758012.8
WR Cole Beasley, BUFCINW 21-1710848012.8
WR Taylor Gabriel, CHIat LARL 7-1714757012.7
WR Isaiah Ford, MIAat NWEW 27-249754012.4
WR Keenan Allen, LACat CHIW 17-1610753012.3
TE Darren Waller, OAKat INDW 31-248753012.3
WR Julian Edelman, NWEat NYJW 33-012747011.7
WR Cooper Kupp, LARat CARW 30-2710746011.6
TE Austin Hooper, ATLat TAMW 28-229745011.5
WR Davante Adams, GNBat LACL 11-2611741011.1
TE Dallas Goedert, PHISEAL 9-178732010.2

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