Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: draft strategies for best-ball leagues. When to pull the trigger on Deebo Samuel's iffy foot. Determining auction values for keeper leagues. And more.
Question 1
Our 14 team redraft league is switching to best-ball scoring. I have the 2nd pick and I am considering Mahomes (6 pts for passing TDs) rather than one of the top RBs. Would best-ball scoring factor into this decision? How does best-ball scoring affect your overall draft strategy?
Don Neve (Wisconsin Rapids, WI)
I don’t think best-ball should affect what you were doing in the first few rounds. It likely would change, however, decision making in the later rounds. Some like to stockpile guys with big-place ability (DeSean Jackson, Will Fuller, Robby Anderson). Some of those players are too inconsistent to use in a regular format – too often they give you almost nothing. But in best-ball, you can leave them in place, knowing that every once in a while they’ll hit on a long touchdown, making them a starter for just that week. Without knowing the exact rules, for example, I would think every team will want to carry two kickers and two defenses. Each time out, there would be a good chance of your second player at each of those positions outperforming the one you would have chosen as your starter. A couple of times in previous years, I have looked into the benefits of carrying backups at those positions. I came to the conclusion that it makes a lot more sense to carry two kickers and two defenses rather than either one or three players at those spots. In a regular league, you will see a lot more teams carrying just one kicker and one defense, allowing them to put an extra line in the water on a backup running back who’s an injury away from being a starter. In best-ball, the cost of carrying backup running backs is increased (if you want to skimp by with only one defense, it will cost you some points many weeks).
Question 2
Thanks for another great magazine. You're still the same prognosticator you've always been, taking risks and standing by them! I'd like to know your feelings on Deebo Samuel, now that it is almost certain he will miss Week 1 , and possibly considerably more time. I really liked your write-up about him. If I can ask about another player: how can you be so high on Dalvin Cook given all the injuries he's had, the missed games dating back to high school? As you stated, he avg'd 53 ypc final 8 weeks of 2019. Did he just run out of steam, was he used less, was he nicked up, or a combination thereof? I would think the recommendation with a guy like Cook is to avoid him at all costs, let someone deal with the pending headaches.
Rob Dammers (Wellington, FL)
Thanks for the kind words. I was very disappointed when Deebo Samuel broke his foot. The injury literally occurred while the magazines were being printed onto paper in June. Prior to that setback, I considered him to be about as worthy as anyone to the fifth receiver drafted (after Thomas-Adams-Jones-Hill) – the key player we wanted to make readers aware of. He really came along nicely as a rookie. In the second half of the season, he caught 35 passes for 575 yards and 2 TDs. And they use him a ton on end-arounds. Samuel ran for 122 yards and 2 TDs in those final eight games, then another 102 yards in the three playoff games. Once he’s fully healthy and dialed in, he should be a good starter. Would be nice if he’d had more training camp work and came without the injury worries, but I think he could be a top-10 receiver in October-December. As for Cook, he’s just got to stay healthy. The injuries are a concern. So is the presence of Alexander Mattison, who seems to be one of the better second-string backs. But Cook is not only a runner but also a big part of their passing game. In his last 16 games, he’s caught 66 passes for 588 yards. Including receiving, he put up 130 yards and 2 TDs in the playoff game at New Orleans last year. So as you start working your way down the list of running backs, I think it makes sense to choose him before a bunch of those other backs who also have their various flaws, including Mixon, Chubb, Drake, Ekeler, Sanders and Jacobs.
Question 3
Thank you to you and the FFI team for putting out a great product year after year. Question about the early rounds in my 14-team PPR draft. We're drafting 6th. In my research, been seeing a lot of Michael Thomas, who I'd be ecstatic to land. Then in the 2nd, Pat Mahomes may be an option in our traditionally QB-averse league and we'd take him. My worry is going WR-QB could leave us painfully weak at RB, in a year where RBs seem to be flying off the board early and often. Penny for your thoughts?
Ben Blakely (Rochester, NY)
You’ll need to take a running back somewhere in there. That might be at 1.06. I don’t believe Michael Thomas will last that long in a PPR format. If you start WR-QB, then you’ll be hard-pressed to again skip a running back at 3.06. I believe there will be some decent guys available at 3.06. I like David Johnson a lot more than most; I think he’ll be an option. Other backs that will be in the mix in the third and fourth rounds include LeVeon Bell, David Montgomery, Chris Carson, James Conner, Raheem Mostert, Ronald Jones and Devin Singletary. For a lot of those backs, they look a lot more palatable after you’ve also landed the backup behind them, giving you a better chance of securing 16 games worth of production. Carson looks a lot more appealing when you also have Carlos Hyde. Conner looks more like a reliable back when Benny Snell is waiting in the wings. Factoring into the decisions needs to be an accounting for injuries. They’re a lot more common at running back. Of the last 100 running backs to finish with top-10 numbers, for example, 49 missed multiple games the next season. That is, when you select a running back (an average running back) there’s about a 50-50 chance you’ll need somebody else to replace him for multiple games. The odds seem to get worse for guys like Carson and Conner. With wide receivers, there’s more of a comfort level that you’re going to get what you’re paying for. With wide receivers, only 31 of the last 100 finishing in the top 10 missed multiple games the next year. With running backs, 17 of 100 (about 1 in 6) missed at least half of the next season. With wide receivers only 6 in 100 (about 1 in 20) missed half of the next year. With those kind of injury trends in mind, I tend to want to get the wide receivers squared away early, then throw a lot of later-round picks at backup running backs, knowing some of those guys will become contributors.
Question 4
I saw your reply to someone a few weeks ago asking about using your Custom Rankings in a draft with some keepers. Made perfect sense. How about an auction league, 12 teams, $200 cap, where there are up to 6 keepers per team. The max total salary of kept players is $60. Some egregious examples of keepers include Mahomes for $6 and Lamar Jackson for $2. Others aren't as blatant. My own team is keeping only Daniel Jones for $1, Mark Andrews for $10, and Chris Godwin for $6. How do I adjust the Custom Rankings?
Theodore Gaskell (Jacksonville, FL)
I would start by assuming nobody is a keeper – as if it’s a start-from-scratch league. Generate the prices, and you’ll know what everybody is actually worth. Then look at the 20-60 keepers as a separate group. Total up the existing salaries for those guys (Mahomes at $6, Jackson at $2, etc.) and see how it compares to what they’re actually worth (if the teams had to re-purchase them, with Mahomes perhaps at $33 and Jackson at $28)). If there are 30 players that are perhaps worth combined $500, but they’re going to sold at the auction for a combined $200, then there’s an extra $300 in buying power in play for those teams -- $300 they’ll be able to use on other players. So then go back into auction setup and add in those extra dollars. If the current setup calls for each team to have $100 in salary cap dollars, it would change to $125 per team ($300 divided by 12 teams would be $25 per team). Then you kick out the new prices for players, and that’s what people should be spending on them. That will be their fair market price for this auction (and your job will be to buy as many as you can for less than they are worth).
Question 5
I am in an 8-team league. We start 2QB 2RB 4WR 2TE 1 flex. Which category will dry up in top quality starters first? Which will have the most depth as I get to say round 9 or 10 (70 or so picks in).
Jim Backstrom (Henderson, NV)
With starting lineups including two quarterbacks, everyone will want to carry at least three good ones (to account for byes and injuries). That third quarterback spot is more than just an afterthought. But there is good depth at that position. If we operate under the assumption that every team will select three (and only three), the last team to select its third quarterback will still get a decent-enough option – somebody along the lines of Rivers, Minshew, Cousins or Burrow. If everyone is using my draft board, Darnold, Carr, Lock and Bridgewater won’t even be chosen – they would be 4th quarterbacks in your eight-team league.
There are 72 other starters at the other positions each week. If you look at the top 72 scorers at those positions (RB-WR-TE) it includes only five tight ends. So I would consider tight ends as a separate, distinct group. Nobody is going to select tight ends with the intention of using them regularly in the flex. Each team will select two-three tight ends, starting two of them each week (with a third tight end used as a flex only in emergencies).
If we lump RB-WR into one group, it’s dominated by running backs early. By my projections, 23 of the top 28 scorers (in this group) will be running backs. But then it swings strongly to receivers. Looking at the rest of the top 100, 52 of the remaining 72 players are wide receivers. So of the top 100 scorers that’s 57 wide receivers and 43 running backs. This all looks reasonable enough. I would guess teams in your league will be selecting about five running backs and seven wide receivers.
Question 6
With the trend of some leagues starting to move away from full point PPR, is there any chance that you guys might add a .5 PPR version to your cheat sheets?
Brian Barrett (Boulder, CO)
We’ve got that one already. I believe we added it a year or two ago. It’s not one of the three that is included in the PDF version of the product, but it’s available online. Log in at the website and click on the blue “Your Stuff” box at the top of the page, then click (in the products area) the link for the most recent version of “CHEAT SHEET CUSTOM RANKINGS AND AUCTION VALUES”. In that area, you’ll see 18 different prefabricated scoring systems. The Half-Point PPR (for 12 teams) is the third one listed. A few weeks back, the programmer guys spent considerable time working on the presentation of that material. There’s been an effort made to make it look very similar to the PDF version. It’s got the same color-coding for the players in the mixed overall top 200 chart. The one main difference is that for spacing purposes, you don’t get the first and last names (in the online version, the first name is shorten to just the initial). For those who prefer to have players separated by position, then can scroll down a page and find it.
Question 7
I’m in a 12-team PPR league. I have the 12th pick in a snake draft. I get to keep 2 players from last year. Which two would you select? Miles Sanders, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett.
Tom Clark (Suffern, NY)
Sanders for sure. I don’t see a lot of difference between the other two. Jones was able to play in all 18 games last year, but he’s had a lot of injury issues in the past (and they’ve got other running backs). But he’s a running back, and that’s a hard-to-fill position. I’m not a big Hopkins fan; I see him as pretty much interchangeable with Lockett.
Question 8
I am joining a new 10-team league, with 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE. What should I do to set up my custom scoring?
Scott Kopischke (Menomonee Falls, WI)
You’ll want to adjust the supply-demand numbers in the auction prices area of your scoring profile. I don’t have exact rules in front of me, but at quarterback, perhaps about 31 selected, with 25 being notable (as described in the question-and-answer section of the setup, “worth for than a $1”). Even if you don’t actually use an auction, this is a way of letting the program know which players you care more about. At running back, perhaps 50 chosen, with 30 being guys you care about. At tight end, 20 chosen with 11 being notable guys. And at wide receiver, about 50 chosen with 30 behind notable.
Question 9
My 10-team league has an unusual scoring system (same since 1990) that makes it difficult to compare "cheat sheets" for more traditional scoring systems. My question is where does Patrick Mahomes fit in a scoring system that awards 6 points for all touchdowns plus 3 bonus points for scores of 11-39 yards and 6 for scores over 40 yards? Scoring allows for half-point for receptions and standard total yardage points for passing/receiving/running. It would seem like Mahomes would become a possible No. 1 pick rather than a 2nd or 3rd rounder.
JEFF NORRIS (Kirkland, WA)
It will help him. He’s going to have a big year, and you’re juicing up the value of his touchdown passes. Of the 76 touchdown passes he’s thrown over the last two years, over two thirds have come from outside 10 yards (16 of them have come from 40-plus). We have a custom rankings area of the website, allowing you to adjust the rankings to fit these kind of leagues. To access those tools, click on the blue “Your Stuff” tab at the top of the page. Then click on “Edit Your Scoring Profiles” and then “Create a new Scoring System.” You’ll see a box with ‘Blank Scoring System’ in it. Click on that and drag down to the scoring system that is closest to yours (half-point PPR). Then you can adjust and tweak that scoring system, creating bonuses for scores from longer range.