Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Around the NFL

D'Andre Swift

Detroit rookie slowed by leg injury

Here we go again? D’Andre Swift has been out of practice for last week with a leg injury, making it look less likely that he’ll be a big contributor in his first year (especially early in the season).

The Lions haven’t outlined the specifics of the injury, but it’s likely some kind of pull. And with it, it’s looking pretty certain that Kerryon Johnson will be the team’s starting tailback on opening day. Swift will start off as a change-of-pace option, perhaps playing his way into a more featured role later in the year.

This isn’t too surprising. Even if Swift were 100 percent, there was a good chance that Johnson would be their opening day starter. He’s more experienced, and he’s also got some ability (like Swift, a former second-round pick).

This injury might help some fantasy GMs from falling into the trap of getting too optimistic about a silver bullet rookie. Generally, such players tend to come in below expectations.

Consider, for example, the following chart. If shows the 49 running backs selected with second-round picks in the last 20 years. Only 12 of these players (about one in four) put up top-30 numbers in their first season. Only 15 were even the most productive back on their own team (I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots).

In both cases, the stats listed assume PPR scoring.

With the three top guys on this list, by the way, it was clear with all of them in the preseason that they were going to be very good. I don’t have a great memory in regards to seeing Maurice Jones-Drew for the first time, but he was coming in behind Fred Taylor. Clinton Portis from the git-go seemed to be playing at a different speed than everyone else on the field. And Eddie Lacy looked like another Marshawn Lynch.

With no preseason games, we don’t get to see if Swift was going to flash that kind of sizzle.

SECOND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS (last 20 yrs)
YearPlayerRunRecTotalTDPPRRk
2002• Clinton Portis, Den.1,508331,54117322.27
2008• Matt Forte, Chi.1,238631,30112306.52
2006• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.9414698716279.78
2013• Eddie Lacy, G.B.1,178351,21311244.58
2013• Giovani Bernard, Cin.695567518224.913
2019• Miles Sanders, Phil.818508686220.715
2013• LeVeon Bell, Pitt.860459058218.915
2014• Jeremy Hill, Cin.1,124271,1519214.910
2001• Anthony Thomas, Chi.1,183221,2057202.117
2018• Nick Chubb, Cle.996201,01610194.517
2009• LeSean McCoy, Phil.637406774160.532
2015• T.J. Yeldon, Jac.740367763155.928
2004• Julius Jones, Dall.819178367151.831
2017Joe Mixon, Cin.626306564145.333
2018• Kerryon Johnson, Det.641326734141.433
2001Travis Henry, Buff.729227514136.830
2015Ameer Abdullah, Det.597256223121.044
2013Montee Ball, Den.559205794114.443
2016Derrick Henry, Ten.490135035105.745
2008Ray Rice, Balt.454334870105.749
2003DeShaun Foster, Car.429264552101.642
2014• Bishop Sankey, Ten.569185872100.244
2005J.J. Arrington, Ariz.37025395287.953
2011Daniel Thomas, Mia.58112593183.351
2007Brian Leonard, St.L.30330333078.656
2014Carlos Hyde, S.F.33312345476.161
2010Toby Gerhart, Min.32221343175.958
2004Tatum Bell, Den.3965401370.663
2017Dalvin Cook, Min.35411365267.472
2002Ladell Betts, Was.30712319164.162
2007Brandon Jackson, G.B.26716283161.767
2010Dexter McCluster, K.C.712192261.065
2001LaMont Jordan, NYJ2927299252.672
2006LenDale White, Ten.24414258044.472
2004Greg Jones, Jac.1623165338.583
2002Maurice Morris, Sea.1533156126.895
2018Ronald Jones, T.B.44751120.795
2012LaMichael James, S.F.1253128018.4116
2011Shane Vereen, N.E.57057111.7123
2012Isaiah Pead, St.L.54357010.0130
2013Christine Michael, Sea.7907907.9131
2011Ryan Williams, Ariz.0000.0--
2005Eric Shelton, Car.0000.0--
2007Kenny Irons, Cin.0000.0--
2010Montario Hardesty, Cle.0000.0--
2011Mikel Leshoure, Det.0000.0--
2010Ben Tate, Hou.0000.0--
2007Chris Henry, Ten.0000.0--
2018Derrius Guice, Was.0000.0--

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index