Here we go again? D’Andre Swift has been out of practice for last week with a leg injury, making it look less likely that he’ll be a big contributor in his first year (especially early in the season).
The Lions haven’t outlined the specifics of the injury, but it’s likely some kind of pull. And with it, it’s looking pretty certain that Kerryon Johnson will be the team’s starting tailback on opening day. Swift will start off as a change-of-pace option, perhaps playing his way into a more featured role later in the year.
This isn’t too surprising. Even if Swift were 100 percent, there was a good chance that Johnson would be their opening day starter. He’s more experienced, and he’s also got some ability (like Swift, a former second-round pick).
This injury might help some fantasy GMs from falling into the trap of getting too optimistic about a silver bullet rookie. Generally, such players tend to come in below expectations.
Consider, for example, the following chart. If shows the 49 running backs selected with second-round picks in the last 20 years. Only 12 of these players (about one in four) put up top-30 numbers in their first season. Only 15 were even the most productive back on their own team (I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots).
In both cases, the stats listed assume PPR scoring.
With the three top guys on this list, by the way, it was clear with all of them in the preseason that they were going to be very good. I don’t have a great memory in regards to seeing Maurice Jones-Drew for the first time, but he was coming in behind Fred Taylor. Clinton Portis from the git-go seemed to be playing at a different speed than everyone else on the field. And Eddie Lacy looked like another Marshawn Lynch.
With no preseason games, we don’t get to see if Swift was going to flash that kind of sizzle.
SECOND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS (last 20 yrs) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
2002 | • Clinton Portis, Den. | 1,508 | 33 | 1,541 | 17 | 322.2 | 7 |
2008 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,238 | 63 | 1,301 | 12 | 306.5 | 2 |
2006 | • Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 941 | 46 | 987 | 16 | 279.7 | 8 |
2013 | • Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1,178 | 35 | 1,213 | 11 | 244.5 | 8 |
2013 | • Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 56 | 751 | 8 | 224.9 | 13 |
2019 | • Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 50 | 868 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 |
2013 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 45 | 905 | 8 | 218.9 | 15 |
2014 | • Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1,124 | 27 | 1,151 | 9 | 214.9 | 10 |
2001 | • Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 1,183 | 22 | 1,205 | 7 | 202.1 | 17 |
2018 | • Nick Chubb, Cle. | 996 | 20 | 1,016 | 10 | 194.5 | 17 |
2009 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 637 | 40 | 677 | 4 | 160.5 | 32 |
2015 | • T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 740 | 36 | 776 | 3 | 155.9 | 28 |
2004 | • Julius Jones, Dall. | 819 | 17 | 836 | 7 | 151.8 | 31 |
2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 626 | 30 | 656 | 4 | 145.3 | 33 |
2018 | • Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 641 | 32 | 673 | 4 | 141.4 | 33 |
2001 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 729 | 22 | 751 | 4 | 136.8 | 30 |
2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 597 | 25 | 622 | 3 | 121.0 | 44 |
2013 | Montee Ball, Den. | 559 | 20 | 579 | 4 | 114.4 | 43 |
2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 490 | 13 | 503 | 5 | 105.7 | 45 |
2008 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 454 | 33 | 487 | 0 | 105.7 | 49 |
2003 | DeShaun Foster, Car. | 429 | 26 | 455 | 2 | 101.6 | 42 |
2014 | • Bishop Sankey, Ten. | 569 | 18 | 587 | 2 | 100.2 | 44 |
2005 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 370 | 25 | 395 | 2 | 87.9 | 53 |
2011 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 581 | 12 | 593 | 1 | 83.3 | 51 |
2007 | Brian Leonard, St.L. | 303 | 30 | 333 | 0 | 78.6 | 56 |
2014 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 333 | 12 | 345 | 4 | 76.1 | 61 |
2010 | Toby Gerhart, Min. | 322 | 21 | 343 | 1 | 75.9 | 58 |
2004 | Tatum Bell, Den. | 396 | 5 | 401 | 3 | 70.6 | 63 |
2017 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 354 | 11 | 365 | 2 | 67.4 | 72 |
2002 | Ladell Betts, Was. | 307 | 12 | 319 | 1 | 64.1 | 62 |
2007 | Brandon Jackson, G.B. | 267 | 16 | 283 | 1 | 61.7 | 67 |
2010 | Dexter McCluster, K.C. | 71 | 21 | 92 | 2 | 61.0 | 65 |
2001 | LaMont Jordan, NYJ | 292 | 7 | 299 | 2 | 52.6 | 72 |
2006 | LenDale White, Ten. | 244 | 14 | 258 | 0 | 44.4 | 72 |
2004 | Greg Jones, Jac. | 162 | 3 | 165 | 3 | 38.5 | 83 |
2002 | Maurice Morris, Sea. | 153 | 3 | 156 | 1 | 26.8 | 95 |
2018 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 44 | 7 | 51 | 1 | 20.7 | 95 |
2012 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 125 | 3 | 128 | 0 | 18.4 | 116 |
2011 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 57 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 11.7 | 123 |
2012 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 54 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 10.0 | 130 |
2013 | Christine Michael, Sea. | 79 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 7.9 | 131 |
2011 | Ryan Williams, Ariz. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2005 | Eric Shelton, Car. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2007 | Kenny Irons, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2010 | Montario Hardesty, Cle. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2011 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2010 | Ben Tate, Hou. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2007 | Chris Henry, Ten. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2018 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
—Ian Allan