I saw Josh Allen talking earlier in the week about planning to run less. Not surprising, and I take it as further evidence that his rushing production will decline this year.

“My mindset this year is a little different,” Allen says. “I’m going to try to get the ball into my playmakers’ hands and let them make some plays, because they’re a lot quicker and shiftier than I am. But when my number is called, I’ll step up to the plate for sure.”

Allen’s no dummy. He gets it. He understands that if he’s going to evolve into a big-time quarterback, it’s going to be with him improving as a passer. Processing the game better and making better, more accurate throws from the pocket.

Allen as a passer was a lot better in his second year, but he’s still got a ways to go before that’s the strength of his game. It’s not easy to fix accuracy and timing.

The rushing production, I’m confident, will decline. He’s put up pretty insane rushing stats in his first two seasons, including 8 and 9 TDs, but they’ll want to give him a better chance of staying healthy by lightening his load.

The historical numbers suggest it’s a safe bet Allen won’t be as prolific as a runner.

If you look at the 30 most productive running quarterbacks of the last 20 years, all but four finished with reduced numbers the next year. That’s using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.

The four guys who came back and improved are in bold below.

Some notable stats from the 30 quarterbacks listed below (plus the four 2019 QBs that we’ll see this year). Of the 30, 17 were in the first, second or third year. It’s the young quarterbacks who tend to run more.

Of the top 30, two thirds ran for at least 100 fewer yards. And 80 percent (24 of 30) scored fewer touchdowns.

Allen has dropped from 631 to 510 rushing yards in his first two years. A move down to around 400 could be coming.

BEST RUNNING QUARTERBACKS (last 20 yrs)
YearPlayerAgeAtt-Yds-TDNext YrChange
2000Kordell Stewart, Pitt.2878-436-796-537-5-2%
2000Daunte Culpepper, Min.2389-470-771-416-5-20%
2000Rich Gannon, Oak.3589-529-463-231-2-54%
2000Donovan McNabb, Phil.2486-629-682-482-2-39%
2001Kordell Stewart, Pitt.2996-537-543-191-2-63%
2002Donovan McNabb, Phil.2663-460-671-355-3-35%
2002Daunte Culpepper, Min.25106-609-1073-422-4-45%
2002Michael Vick, Atl.22113-777-840-255-1-75%
2003Jeff Garcia, S.F.3356-319-735-169-2-61%
2004Michael Vick, Atl.24120-902-3102-597-6-12%
2005Michael Vick, Atl.25102-597-6123-1039-221%
2006Michael Vick, Atl.26123-1039-20-0-0-100%
2006Vince Young, Ten.2383-552-793-395-3-41%
2010Michael Vick, Phil.30100-676-976-589-1-47%
2011Cam Newton, Car.22126-706-14127-741-8-21%
2011Tim Tebow, Den.24122-660-632-102-0-90%
2012Cam Newton, Car.23127-741-8111-585-6-23%
2012Robert Griffin, Was.22120-815-786-489-0-60%
2013Cam Newton, Car.24111-585-6103-539-5-11%
2013Colin Kaepernick, S.F.2692-524-4104-639-1-9%
2014Cam Newton, Car.25103-539-5132-636-1047%
2014Russell Wilson, Sea.26118-849-6103-553-1-49%
2015Tyrod Taylor, Buff.26104-568-495-580-616%
2015Cam Newton, Car.26132-636-1090-359-5-47%
2016Tyrod Taylor, Buff.2795-580-684-427-4-29%
2017Cam Newton, Car.28139-754-6101-488-4-35%
2017Russell Wilson, Sea.2995-586-367-376-0-51%
2018Lamar Jackson, Balt.21147-695-5176-1206-763%
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.2399-551-582-413-7-2%
2018Josh Allen, Buff.2289-631-8109-510-9-5%
2019• Lamar Jackson, Balt.22176-1206-7??
2019• Josh Allen, Buff.23109-510-9??
2019• Kyler Murray, Ariz.2293-544-4??
2019• Deshaun Watson, Hou.2482-413-7??

—Ian Allan