I saw Josh Allen talking earlier in the week about planning to run less. Not surprising, and I take it as further evidence that his rushing production will decline this year.
“My mindset this year is a little different,” Allen says. “I’m going to try to get the ball into my playmakers’ hands and let them make some plays, because they’re a lot quicker and shiftier than I am. But when my number is called, I’ll step up to the plate for sure.”
Allen’s no dummy. He gets it. He understands that if he’s going to evolve into a big-time quarterback, it’s going to be with him improving as a passer. Processing the game better and making better, more accurate throws from the pocket.
Allen as a passer was a lot better in his second year, but he’s still got a ways to go before that’s the strength of his game. It’s not easy to fix accuracy and timing.
The rushing production, I’m confident, will decline. He’s put up pretty insane rushing stats in his first two seasons, including 8 and 9 TDs, but they’ll want to give him a better chance of staying healthy by lightening his load.
The historical numbers suggest it’s a safe bet Allen won’t be as prolific as a runner.
If you look at the 30 most productive running quarterbacks of the last 20 years, all but four finished with reduced numbers the next year. That’s using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
The four guys who came back and improved are in bold below.
Some notable stats from the 30 quarterbacks listed below (plus the four 2019 QBs that we’ll see this year). Of the 30, 17 were in the first, second or third year. It’s the young quarterbacks who tend to run more.
Of the top 30, two thirds ran for at least 100 fewer yards. And 80 percent (24 of 30) scored fewer touchdowns.
Allen has dropped from 631 to 510 rushing yards in his first two years. A move down to around 400 could be coming.
| BEST RUNNING QUARTERBACKS (last 20 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | Att-Yds-TD | Next Yr | Change |
| 2000 | Kordell Stewart, Pitt. | 28 | 78-436-7 | 96-537-5 | -2% |
| 2000 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 23 | 89-470-7 | 71-416-5 | -20% |
| 2000 | Rich Gannon, Oak. | 35 | 89-529-4 | 63-231-2 | -54% |
| 2000 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 24 | 86-629-6 | 82-482-2 | -39% |
| 2001 | Kordell Stewart, Pitt. | 29 | 96-537-5 | 43-191-2 | -63% |
| 2002 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 26 | 63-460-6 | 71-355-3 | -35% |
| 2002 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 25 | 106-609-10 | 73-422-4 | -45% |
| 2002 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 22 | 113-777-8 | 40-255-1 | -75% |
| 2003 | Jeff Garcia, S.F. | 33 | 56-319-7 | 35-169-2 | -61% |
| 2004 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 24 | 120-902-3 | 102-597-6 | -12% |
| 2005 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 25 | 102-597-6 | 123-1039-2 | 21% |
| 2006 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 26 | 123-1039-2 | 0-0-0 | -100% |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 23 | 83-552-7 | 93-395-3 | -41% |
| 2010 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 30 | 100-676-9 | 76-589-1 | -47% |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 22 | 126-706-14 | 127-741-8 | -21% |
| 2011 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 24 | 122-660-6 | 32-102-0 | -90% |
| 2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 23 | 127-741-8 | 111-585-6 | -23% |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 22 | 120-815-7 | 86-489-0 | -60% |
| 2013 | Cam Newton, Car. | 24 | 111-585-6 | 103-539-5 | -11% |
| 2013 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 26 | 92-524-4 | 104-639-1 | -9% |
| 2014 | Cam Newton, Car. | 25 | 103-539-5 | 132-636-10 | 47% |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 26 | 118-849-6 | 103-553-1 | -49% |
| 2015 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 26 | 104-568-4 | 95-580-6 | 16% |
| 2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 26 | 132-636-10 | 90-359-5 | -47% |
| 2016 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 27 | 95-580-6 | 84-427-4 | -29% |
| 2017 | Cam Newton, Car. | 28 | 139-754-6 | 101-488-4 | -35% |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 29 | 95-586-3 | 67-376-0 | -51% |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 21 | 147-695-5 | 176-1206-7 | 63% |
| 2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 23 | 99-551-5 | 82-413-7 | -2% |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 22 | 89-631-8 | 109-510-9 | -5% |
| 2019 | • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 22 | 176-1206-7 | ? | ? |
| 2019 | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 23 | 109-510-9 | ? | ? |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 22 | 93-544-4 | ? | ? |
| 2019 | • Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 24 | 82-413-7 | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan