It’s easy to say, “Don’t overreact to one game”. But at the same time, there’s something to be said for being the first to react to what you believe is developing in front of your eyes. If you think Jacksonville’s passing game is for real, now is the time to act – you don’t get the benefit of seeing them for another two-three games before making up your mind. You don’t get to see Benny Snell and James Conner for a few more games.

I tend to be a little more aggressive in my player evaluations – try to be ahead of the curve. So there are numerous major changes on our overall draft board. Those individual projections have left by desktop, and they’ll be showing up on your end soon.

In the meantime, let’s take a step back and look not at players but at times teams. Which offenses will finish with the most yards and points? I try to post these every week or so, and the revised numbers after the Week 1 games appear below.

I’ve got Kansas City with the top offense, with Baltimore and Seattle next in the pecking order.

I hope I’m not being too slow with the Jaguars. I’ve upped their numbers (especially their passing numbers) but I’ve still got them scoring only 31 TDs in their next 16 games (if there were another 16 games). That’s more than only three other teams. If Jacksonville puts up nice numbers again this week, I’ll be wishing I moved them up to around 33-34.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
RkTeamPassRunTotal
1.Kansas City40.318.959.2
2.Baltimore34.719.053.8
3.Seattle33.814.748.5
4.New Orleans32.814.747.5
5.Dallas30.117.047.0
6.Green Bay29.117.146.2
7.Tampa Bay30.913.844.6
8.Indianapolis27.816.244.0
9.New England23.520.544.0
10.Pittsburgh31.212.543.7
11.San Francisco25.916.542.4
12.Tennessee25.616.542.1
13.Arizona24.617.141.8
14.Minnesota24.616.841.4
15.Philadelphia28.213.341.4
16.Atlanta29.310.940.2
17.Detroit27.812.039.8
18.Houston25.913.939.8
19.LA Rams23.216.639.8
20.Cleveland23.016.539.5
21.Buffalo24.212.336.5
22.Las Vegas22.913.136.0
23.Carolina20.813.634.4
24.NY Giants24.88.833.6
25.Denver21.312.233.4
26.Chicago21.611.232.8
27.Cincinnati21.011.032.0
28.LA Chargers20.311.732.0
29.Jacksonville24.86.231.0
30.Miami21.98.630.6
31.NY Jets23.76.930.6
32.Washington19.211.230.4

With passing, the top 4 used to include Kansas City and the three notable NFC South teams. Tampa Bay falls out of the group, replaced by the Seahawks. Seattle is passing more and has a quarterback who can close drives with touchdowns.

Scoring here assumes 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 passing yards.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
RkOffenseYardsTDPPoints
1.Kansas City3002.5245.1
2.Atlanta3031.8341.3
3.Seattle2752.1140.2
4.New Orleans2772.0540.0
5.Pittsburgh2821.9539.9
6.Tampa Bay2751.9339.1
7.Dallas2721.8838.5
8.Detroit2801.7438.4
9.Indianapolis2721.7437.6
10.Green Bay2651.8237.4
11.Philadelphia2631.7636.9
12.Baltimore2352.1736.5
13.LA Rams2741.4536.1
14.Arizona2571.5434.9
15.NY Giants2551.5534.8
16.San Francisco2481.6234.5
17.Houston2461.6234.3
18.Las Vegas2501.4333.6
19.Jacksonville2421.5533.5
20.Minnesota2401.5433.2
21.Tennessee2351.6033.1
22.Cleveland2351.4432.1
23.Buffalo2301.5132.1
24.NY Jets2301.4831.9
25.Miami2351.3731.7
26.New England2281.4731.6
27.Carolina2341.3031.2
28.Denver2301.3331.0
29.Cincinnati2301.3130.9
30.Chicago2251.3530.6
31.LA Chargers2101.2728.6
32.Washington2101.2028.2

For rushing, I’ve still got Baltimore and New England in the top 2 spots. Kansas City moves up into the third spot, looking like will have more potential for rushing touchdowns than some of the other top contenders.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
RkOffenseYardsTDRPoints
1.Baltimore1601.1923.1
2.New England1381.2821.5
3.Kansas City1251.1819.6
4.Cleveland1331.0319.5
5.Tennessee1271.0318.9
6.Dallas1251.0618.9
7.Minnesota1251.0518.8
8.LA Rams1221.0418.4
9.Arizona1181.0718.2
10.San Francisco1181.0318.0
11.Green Bay1131.0717.7
12.Indianapolis1151.0117.6
13.Houston122.8717.4
14.LA Chargers130.7317.4
15.Seattle115.9217.0
16.Buffalo122.7716.8
17.New Orleans113.9216.8
18.Las Vegas116.8216.5
19.Detroit120.7516.5
20.Philadelphia110.8316.0
21.Carolina108.8515.9
22.Pittsburgh107.7815.4
23.Denver108.7615.4
24.Chicago110.7015.2
25.Cincinnati109.6915.0
26.Tampa Bay92.8614.4
27.Washington100.7014.2
28.NY Giants105.5513.8
29.Atlanta88.6812.9
30.Miami90.5412.2
31.Jacksonville93.3911.6
32.NY Jets89.4311.5

—Ian Allan