Team projections

September 15, 2020

Seahawks on the rise

Revised team projections after Week 1

It’s easy to say, “Don’t overreact to one game”. But at the same time, there’s something to be said for being the first to react to what you believe is developing in front of your eyes. If you think Jacksonville’s passing game is for real, now is the time to act – you don’t get the benefit of seeing them for another two-three games before making up your mind. You don’t get to see Benny Snell and James Conner for a few more games.

I tend to be a little more aggressive in my player evaluations – try to be ahead of the curve. So there are numerous major changes on our overall draft board. Those individual projections have left by desktop, and they’ll be showing up on your end soon.

In the meantime, let’s take a step back and look not at players but at times teams. Which offenses will finish with the most yards and points? I try to post these every week or so, and the revised numbers after the Week 1 games appear below.

I’ve got Kansas City with the top offense, with Baltimore and Seattle next in the pecking order.

I hope I’m not being too slow with the Jaguars. I’ve upped their numbers (especially their passing numbers) but I’ve still got them scoring only 31 TDs in their next 16 games (if there were another 16 games). That’s more than only three other teams. If Jacksonville puts up nice numbers again this week, I’ll be wishing I moved them up to around 33-34.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
Rk	Team	Pass	Run	Total
1.	Kansas City	40.3	18.9	59.2
2.	Baltimore	34.7	19.0	53.8
3.	Seattle	33.8	14.7	48.5
4.	New Orleans	32.8	14.7	47.5
5.	Dallas	30.1	17.0	47.0
6.	Green Bay	29.1	17.1	46.2
7.	Tampa Bay	30.9	13.8	44.6
8.	Indianapolis	27.8	16.2	44.0
9.	New England	23.5	20.5	44.0
10.	Pittsburgh	31.2	12.5	43.7
11.	San Francisco	25.9	16.5	42.4
12.	Tennessee	25.6	16.5	42.1
13.	Arizona	24.6	17.1	41.8
14.	Minnesota	24.6	16.8	41.4
15.	Philadelphia	28.2	13.3	41.4
16.	Atlanta	29.3	10.9	40.2
17.	Detroit	27.8	12.0	39.8
18.	Houston	25.9	13.9	39.8
19.	LA Rams	23.2	16.6	39.8
20.	Cleveland	23.0	16.5	39.5
21.	Buffalo	24.2	12.3	36.5
22.	Las Vegas	22.9	13.1	36.0
23.	Carolina	20.8	13.6	34.4
24.	NY Giants	24.8	8.8	33.6
25.	Denver	21.3	12.2	33.4
26.	Chicago	21.6	11.2	32.8
27.	Cincinnati	21.0	11.0	32.0
28.	LA Chargers	20.3	11.7	32.0
29.	Jacksonville	24.8	6.2	31.0
30.	Miami	21.9	8.6	30.6
31.	NY Jets	23.7	6.9	30.6
32.	Washington	19.2	11.2	30.4

With passing, the top 4 used to include Kansas City and the three notable NFC South teams. Tampa Bay falls out of the group, replaced by the Seahawks. Seattle is passing more and has a quarterback who can close drives with touchdowns.

Scoring here assumes 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 passing yards.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Offense	Yards	TDP	Points
1.	Kansas City	300	2.52	45.1
2.	Atlanta	303	1.83	41.3
3.	Seattle	275	2.11	40.2
4.	New Orleans	277	2.05	40.0
5.	Pittsburgh	282	1.95	39.9
6.	Tampa Bay	275	1.93	39.1
7.	Dallas	272	1.88	38.5
8.	Detroit	280	1.74	38.4
9.	Indianapolis	272	1.74	37.6
10.	Green Bay	265	1.82	37.4
11.	Philadelphia	263	1.76	36.9
12.	Baltimore	235	2.17	36.5
13.	LA Rams	274	1.45	36.1
14.	Arizona	257	1.54	34.9
15.	NY Giants	255	1.55	34.8
16.	San Francisco	248	1.62	34.5
17.	Houston	246	1.62	34.3
18.	Las Vegas	250	1.43	33.6
19.	Jacksonville	242	1.55	33.5
20.	Minnesota	240	1.54	33.2
21.	Tennessee	235	1.60	33.1
22.	Cleveland	235	1.44	32.1
23.	Buffalo	230	1.51	32.1
24.	NY Jets	230	1.48	31.9
25.	Miami	235	1.37	31.7
26.	New England	228	1.47	31.6
27.	Carolina	234	1.30	31.2
28.	Denver	230	1.33	31.0
29.	Cincinnati	230	1.31	30.9
30.	Chicago	225	1.35	30.6
31.	LA Chargers	210	1.27	28.6
32.	Washington	210	1.20	28.2

For rushing, I’ve still got Baltimore and New England in the top 2 spots. Kansas City moves up into the third spot, looking like will have more potential for rushing touchdowns than some of the other top contenders.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Offense	Yards	TDR	Points
1.	Baltimore	160	1.19	23.1
2.	New England	138	1.28	21.5
3.	Kansas City	125	1.18	19.6
4.	Cleveland	133	1.03	19.5
5.	Tennessee	127	1.03	18.9
6.	Dallas	125	1.06	18.9
7.	Minnesota	125	1.05	18.8
8.	LA Rams	122	1.04	18.4
9.	Arizona	118	1.07	18.2
10.	San Francisco	118	1.03	18.0
11.	Green Bay	113	1.07	17.7
12.	Indianapolis	115	1.01	17.6
13.	Houston	122	.87	17.4
14.	LA Chargers	130	.73	17.4
15.	Seattle	115	.92	17.0
16.	Buffalo	122	.77	16.8
17.	New Orleans	113	.92	16.8
18.	Las Vegas	116	.82	16.5
19.	Detroit	120	.75	16.5
20.	Philadelphia	110	.83	16.0
21.	Carolina	108	.85	15.9
22.	Pittsburgh	107	.78	15.4
23.	Denver	108	.76	15.4
24.	Chicago	110	.70	15.2
25.	Cincinnati	109	.69	15.0
26.	Tampa Bay	92	.86	14.4
27.	Washington	100	.70	14.2
28.	NY Giants	105	.55	13.8
29.	Atlanta	88	.68	12.9
30.	Miami	90	.54	12.2
31.	Jacksonville	93	.39	11.6
32.	NY Jets	89	.43	11.5

—Ian Allan

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