Today’s version of the Redrafter will be showing up in your email inbox soon – with revised rankings for all of the individual players. The changes to this one are most extensive than usual, as I’ve attempted to make the changeover to the out-of-character offensive production we’re seeing right now.

Right now, the majority of NFL offenses are averaging at least 3 TDs per game. That’s unprecedented. Last year, only three offenses averaged more than 3 TDs per week. In a typical NFL season, we more usually see offenses averaging about 38 touchdowns per season – about 2.4 per week.

I don’t believe that teams are going to average 3 TDs per week over the course of the season. Defenses will catch up and adjust. But I’m also sure that 2.4 is wildly out of whack. So for this week, I’ve moved up to something more like 2.7 touchdowns as the league-wide average. If an offense finishes with 42-43 touchdowns, that should be an average kind of unit.

In general, I’ve pumped up the numbers all over the place.

When the product arrives, you’ll be able to look at the individual player rankings, with who’s going up and down with these widespread changes. Separately from that, we can look at the team numbers. (With our system, the teams and the players are tied together).

For touchdowns, I’ve got KC, Seattle and Green Bay as my top 3 – all closer to averaging 4 touchdowns rather than just 3. Also note that the Rams have moved up into the No. 4 spot (they might be the biggest upward mover of the week).

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
RkTeamPassRunTotal
1.Kansas City42.216.859.0
2.Seattle42.114.957.0
3.Green Bay36.320.056.3
4.LA Rams28.324.052.3
5.Baltimore32.819.252.0
6.Dallas30.721.352.0
7.Buffalo34.914.749.6
8.Pittsburgh33.915.049.0
9.New Orleans31.716.848.5
10.New England21.925.647.5
11.Tampa Bay31.216.047.2
12.Arizona25.620.345.9
13.Cleveland23.220.343.5
14.Minnesota23.420.243.5
15.Tennessee26.416.843.2
16.San Francisco25.018.143.0
17.Atlanta29.812.241.9
18.Las Vegas26.615.441.9
19.Indianapolis23.218.641.8
20.Detroit29.011.840.8
21.Houston26.913.940.8
22.Jacksonville25.910.636.5
23.Miami23.411.835.2
24.Chicago26.18.834.9
25.Philadelphia23.211.234.4
26.Carolina21.013.134.1
27.LA Chargers21.612.534.1
28.Cincinnati24.29.433.6
29.Denver21.311.432.6
30.Washington21.310.732.0
31.NY Giants22.45.628.0
32.NY Jets21.95.627.5

For passing, KC, Seattle and Dallas make up the top 3. For this chart, rankings based on 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
RkTeamYardsTDPPoints
1.Kansas City3052.6446.3
2.Seattle2852.6344.3
3.Dallas2951.9241.0
4.Green Bay2672.2740.3
5.Atlanta2901.8640.2
6.Buffalo2702.1840.1
7.Pittsburgh2722.1239.9
8.New Orleans2751.9839.4
9.Detroit2781.8138.7
10.Tampa Bay2651.9538.2
11.LA Rams2751.7738.1
12.Houston2621.6836.3
13.Las Vegas2601.6636.0
14.Arizona2601.6035.6
15.Chicago2481.6334.6
16.Jacksonville2471.6234.4
17.Baltimore2202.0534.3
18.Cincinnati2501.5134.1
19.Tennessee2401.6533.9
20.San Francisco2451.5633.9
21.Philadelphia2451.4533.2
22.NY Giants2451.4032.9
23.Indianapolis2401.4532.7
24.Miami2351.4632.3
25.Carolina2421.3132.1
26.Minnesota2331.4632.1
27.LA Chargers2301.3531.1
28.New England2251.3730.7
29.Cleveland2201.4530.7
30.Denver2251.3330.5
31.NY Jets2151.3729.7
32.Washington2151.3329.5

For rushing, I’ve got Patriots, Ravens and Rams as the top 3. Points here based on 6 points for rushing touchdowns, and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
RkTeamYardsTDRPoints
1.New England1501.6024.6
2.Baltimore1671.2023.9
3.LA Rams1451.5023.5
4.Cleveland1401.2721.6
5.Green Bay1401.2521.5
6.Dallas1281.3320.8
7.Arizona1251.2720.1
8.Minnesota1251.2620.1
9.Indianapolis1251.1619.5
10.Tennessee1281.0519.1
11.San Francisco1171.1318.5
12.Kansas City1201.0518.3
13.Las Vegas120.9617.8
14.New Orleans1121.0517.5
15.Seattle118.9317.4
16.Pittsburgh115.9417.1
17.Buffalo115.9217.0
18.LA Chargers122.7816.9
19.Houston115.8716.7
20.Tampa Bay981.0015.8
21.Carolina107.8215.6
22.Detroit108.7415.2
23.Denver108.7115.1
24.Philadelphia108.7015.0
25.Washington105.6714.5
26.Miami100.7414.4
27.Atlanta97.7614.3
28.Chicago106.5513.9
29.Jacksonville96.6613.6
30.Cincinnati95.5913.0
31.NY Jets90.3511.1
32.NY Giants82.3510.3

—Ian Allan