Team projections

September 29, 2020

Revised offensive rankings

Re-stacking the board to account for 2020 offensive explosion

Today’s version of the Redrafter will be showing up in your email inbox soon – with revised rankings for all of the individual players. The changes to this one are most extensive than usual, as I’ve attempted to make the changeover to the out-of-character offensive production we’re seeing right now.

Right now, the majority of NFL offenses are averaging at least 3 TDs per game. That’s unprecedented. Last year, only three offenses averaged more than 3 TDs per week. In a typical NFL season, we more usually see offenses averaging about 38 touchdowns per season – about 2.4 per week.

I don’t believe that teams are going to average 3 TDs per week over the course of the season. Defenses will catch up and adjust. But I’m also sure that 2.4 is wildly out of whack. So for this week, I’ve moved up to something more like 2.7 touchdowns as the league-wide average. If an offense finishes with 42-43 touchdowns, that should be an average kind of unit.

In general, I’ve pumped up the numbers all over the place.

When the product arrives, you’ll be able to look at the individual player rankings, with who’s going up and down with these widespread changes. Separately from that, we can look at the team numbers. (With our system, the teams and the players are tied together).

For touchdowns, I’ve got KC, Seattle and Green Bay as my top 3 – all closer to averaging 4 touchdowns rather than just 3. Also note that the Rams have moved up into the No. 4 spot (they might be the biggest upward mover of the week).

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
Rk	Team	Pass	Run	Total
1.	Kansas City	42.2	16.8	59.0
2.	Seattle	42.1	14.9	57.0
3.	Green Bay	36.3	20.0	56.3
4.	LA Rams	28.3	24.0	52.3
5.	Baltimore	32.8	19.2	52.0
6.	Dallas	30.7	21.3	52.0
7.	Buffalo	34.9	14.7	49.6
8.	Pittsburgh	33.9	15.0	49.0
9.	New Orleans	31.7	16.8	48.5
10.	New England	21.9	25.6	47.5
11.	Tampa Bay	31.2	16.0	47.2
12.	Arizona	25.6	20.3	45.9
13.	Cleveland	23.2	20.3	43.5
14.	Minnesota	23.4	20.2	43.5
15.	Tennessee	26.4	16.8	43.2
16.	San Francisco	25.0	18.1	43.0
17.	Atlanta	29.8	12.2	41.9
18.	Las Vegas	26.6	15.4	41.9
19.	Indianapolis	23.2	18.6	41.8
20.	Detroit	29.0	11.8	40.8
21.	Houston	26.9	13.9	40.8
22.	Jacksonville	25.9	10.6	36.5
23.	Miami	23.4	11.8	35.2
24.	Chicago	26.1	8.8	34.9
25.	Philadelphia	23.2	11.2	34.4
26.	Carolina	21.0	13.1	34.1
27.	LA Chargers	21.6	12.5	34.1
28.	Cincinnati	24.2	9.4	33.6
29.	Denver	21.3	11.4	32.6
30.	Washington	21.3	10.7	32.0
31.	NY Giants	22.4	5.6	28.0
32.	NY Jets	21.9	5.6	27.5

For passing, KC, Seattle and Dallas make up the top 3. For this chart, rankings based on 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Team	Yards	TDP	Points
1.	Kansas City	305	2.64	46.3
2.	Seattle	285	2.63	44.3
3.	Dallas	295	1.92	41.0
4.	Green Bay	267	2.27	40.3
5.	Atlanta	290	1.86	40.2
6.	Buffalo	270	2.18	40.1
7.	Pittsburgh	272	2.12	39.9
8.	New Orleans	275	1.98	39.4
9.	Detroit	278	1.81	38.7
10.	Tampa Bay	265	1.95	38.2
11.	LA Rams	275	1.77	38.1
12.	Houston	262	1.68	36.3
13.	Las Vegas	260	1.66	36.0
14.	Arizona	260	1.60	35.6
15.	Chicago	248	1.63	34.6
16.	Jacksonville	247	1.62	34.4
17.	Baltimore	220	2.05	34.3
18.	Cincinnati	250	1.51	34.1
19.	Tennessee	240	1.65	33.9
20.	San Francisco	245	1.56	33.9
21.	Philadelphia	245	1.45	33.2
22.	NY Giants	245	1.40	32.9
23.	Indianapolis	240	1.45	32.7
24.	Miami	235	1.46	32.3
25.	Carolina	242	1.31	32.1
26.	Minnesota	233	1.46	32.1
27.	LA Chargers	230	1.35	31.1
28.	New England	225	1.37	30.7
29.	Cleveland	220	1.45	30.7
30.	Denver	225	1.33	30.5
31.	NY Jets	215	1.37	29.7
32.	Washington	215	1.33	29.5

For rushing, I’ve got Patriots, Ravens and Rams as the top 3. Points here based on 6 points for rushing touchdowns, and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Team	Yards	TDR	Points
1.	New England	150	1.60	24.6
2.	Baltimore	167	1.20	23.9
3.	LA Rams	145	1.50	23.5
4.	Cleveland	140	1.27	21.6
5.	Green Bay	140	1.25	21.5
6.	Dallas	128	1.33	20.8
7.	Arizona	125	1.27	20.1
8.	Minnesota	125	1.26	20.1
9.	Indianapolis	125	1.16	19.5
10.	Tennessee	128	1.05	19.1
11.	San Francisco	117	1.13	18.5
12.	Kansas City	120	1.05	18.3
13.	Las Vegas	120	.96	17.8
14.	New Orleans	112	1.05	17.5
15.	Seattle	118	.93	17.4
16.	Pittsburgh	115	.94	17.1
17.	Buffalo	115	.92	17.0
18.	LA Chargers	122	.78	16.9
19.	Houston	115	.87	16.7
20.	Tampa Bay	98	1.00	15.8
21.	Carolina	107	.82	15.6
22.	Detroit	108	.74	15.2
23.	Denver	108	.71	15.1
24.	Philadelphia	108	.70	15.0
25.	Washington	105	.67	14.5
26.	Miami	100	.74	14.4
27.	Atlanta	97	.76	14.3
28.	Chicago	106	.55	13.9
29.	Jacksonville	96	.66	13.6
30.	Cincinnati	95	.59	13.0
31.	NY Jets	90	.35	11.1
32.	NY Giants	82	.35	10.3

—Ian Allan

Older

Newer

My dad and I have subscribed since I was 10 years old and I am 38 now. We canʼt go a season without it.

Trevor T. Sparks, Nev.

You guys are great - if you look at my account, I believe I have been a subscriber for around 20 years! Unfortunately, a few years ago a couple of other owners found the same publication (they didnʼt get it from me; I always disguised the sheets while at the draft!)

Michael B. St. Charles, Mo.

I have purchased your magazine since my first fantasy football season ever 12 season ago and love the insight you offer. Thank you for the great service, I look forward to many many more years of enjoying your subscription!

Paul L. Mequon, Wisc.

The magazine is exactly the same as last year, which is perfect. Boys, we have a chance to repeat in the 33rd year of the NWFFL. I am counting on you to help pull it off. FI has been a league staple for decades, one of my guys has every edition. A few years ago, we devised a clever way to use one of your lists to draft a team for an absent owner, the sob won it all. We love you guys. Peace!

Glenn S. Olympia, Wash.

Hi, received my copy over the weekend and I think it's the best work you guys have done (I've been reading your publication since 1988). The writing is terrific and full of good humor, along with more substance than anybody else has.

Keep up the great work!

John L. Madison, Wis.

I'm in 3 leagues. All have different formats. I bought one magazine, the same magazine for 30 years. I keep the Fantasy Football Index handy and refer back to your preseason reports throughout the season to help me evaluate roster moves in every format. This week I'm in two championship games and a semifinal. Did I tell you I'm in three leagues? Three playoff teams! Best fantasy season ever. Thank you.

Henry G. Bartlett, Ill.

Thanks for another great season of Fantasy Index, you avoid group-think and form your own opinions, and always have. I've been using your products since 1992, and you've always been a cut above the rest.

Rob D. Wellington, Fla.

Thank you for all you do and what your team does. Been playing since mid 90s and your mag has been there every year. The mailer I get with the questions on the front is what I consider the beginning of the fantasy football season. Get the updates and listen to the podcast. I write a weekly column for the newspaper I work at and always appreciate the work you put in to produce as much as you do. Just a fan saying thanks and will keep up with you and the site through the season.

Jason C. Tulsa, Okla.

A little feedback from a long time customer.

Our fantasy pool is entering its 25^th year and I have used multiple books and on-line tools over the years.

I have locked on to Fantasy Index as my go to for the last 5 years and have won the pool 3 of those years and finished no lower than 4^th.

Interesting to see how much more accurate you were at the end of the year compared to other books my competitors used.

Having it in a format that allows me to work the forecasts to match our scoring system and then receive updates as the season approaches is invaluable. Whoever your sources are for the forecasts are the best. Hang on to them. Thanks for the help!!

Peter M. London, Ontario, Canada

I did receive the updated draft ranking from you guys in plenty of time for my draft that night. My draft report gave me an A+ and predicted me to go 14-0 and win my league! I just want to say thank you for the excellent customer service that your company provided me. When I first started playing fantasy football more than 15 years ago, I used to buy as many fantasy football magazines as I could find. It wasnʼt long before I only purchased Fantasy Football Index each year. It is by far the most comprehensive, well written fantasy football magazine on the market. Also, I almost always rank in the top three in my fantasy football leagues, and won my league last year. Thank you to you and all of your great team. You have a customer for life!

Trey C. Fort Worth, Texas

Thank you for all the updates etc. In the last 14 or 15 years, we have placed in the top three 9 times winning it all 4 times. I have been a customer of yours for many years. Our success is partially due to luck, but I think your magazine with all of the good stuff has been a real contributing factor. Keep up the good work. Will be a customer until the time I can't read anymore.

Richard M. Imperial, Neb.

I just wanted to send everyone at Fantasy Football Index an apology. Since 2003 (Ricky Williams cover), I've protected my source of information and have gone out of my way to hide Fantasy Football Index from my leagues prying eyes. I've won championships in leagues and money playing Daily Fantasy and your Training Camp updates are the highlight of my summer and a recurring order for me every single season. I just wanted to Thank You and everyone there (customer service, the writers, janitors, secretaries and assistants) for your hard work and dedication.

You are appreciated and valued part of my Fantasy Football Operations department even if i never speak your name in fear that others in my league will discover the wondrous bounty of knowledge contained in your pages…

From the bottom of a champion's heart,

Dave M. Elma, N.Y.

I wanted to send a quick note and thank you for your great magazine! The information you provide, has allowed me to win my league 3 years in a row!

The payoff in the league is not bad, six hundred dollars to be exact, but it is those all important bragging rights that really make it fun!

I epically enjoyed this last issue because you included all the covers for the past 30 years, I did not buy 87, and 88, but all the rest I have purchased.

All I have to do is read and then plug and play, thanks again for doing all the work so I don't have to, except for cash the check of course! Lol.

I will be continue to purchase your magazine, and recommend it to others, although I don't like to give away my secret!

I typically don't write emails to magazines, but after 3 wins in a row, and others which I did not list, I felt like you would like to know.

Thanks again to you and your staff,

Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Team projections

Revised offensive rankings

Today's Trivia

Mailbag

Member updates

Follow

Why Choose Fantasy Index?

Quick hits

Your Stuff

In-Depth

Resources

All Products

Help & Support

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Customer Service