Team projections

September 10, 2020

Final tweaks

Locking down on final preseason stat projections

I just sent along the final player ranking adjustments for the preseason. (Those will be posted on the website soon). I did make a handful of changes, based largely on the depth charts that are now posted at the team’s depth charts. Those can affect your confidence in a player.

Most notably, the Raiders are listing rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards as first-string players. The indication is that they’ll be primarily a three-receiver team, and Hunter Renfrow, Ruggs and Edwards are their three guys. I’ve moved all three up by board some. Edwads is among the players I’m most intrigued to see in action.

Jacksonville says James Robinson is their starting tailback (at least for now). He’s worth a flyer waiver claim, I think, as a guy to have on the last spot on your bench – see what he can do in Week 1. But that team is going to be terrible, methinks, and I think they’re going to be passing it all over the place.

Vikings say Bisi Johnson is a starting wide receiver, while Justin Jefferson is a backup. I will continue to maintain that nobody should be selecting Jefferson looking for a big, immediate first-year impact.

Broncos list Jerry Jeudy as a co-starter (along with Tim Patrick).

In Green Bay, Jace Sternberger is listed as a third-string tight end. I imagine they’ll use plenty of multiple tight end sets, but Sternberger is just a gambler/flyer guy right now, as opposed to a player you could plug into a starting lineup right now. I moved Sternberger down some.

Jacksonville lists Dede Westbrook as a third-stringer – not even a backup. This has me thinking that Laviska Shenault could be playing a bunch sooner rather than later. Shenault could be their slot guy rather than Westbrook. If you drafted Westbrook, I would opt to release him now, grabbing some other prospect off the waiver wire. I don’t think you need to wait and see Westbrook underperform in Week 1 before making such a move.

Colts indicate Michael Pittman is a backup for now – not one of their three listed starting wide receivers. If I were gambling a late-round pick on a Colts wide receiver, it would be Parris Campbell before Pittman.

Kyle Shanahan said some nice things about Brandon Aiyuk about a month ago, but Aiyuk is listed as a third-string player. They’ve got Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne listed as their starters.

Updated rankings include some tinkering with backs in Washington.

For scoring, I’m going with Kansas City, Baltimore and New Orleans as my top 3.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
Rk	Team	Pass	Run	Total
1.	Kansas City	39.8	16.6	56.5
2.	Baltimore	32.6	17.9	50.6
3.	New Orleans	34.1	14.2	48.3
4.	Dallas	29.8	16.5	46.2
5.	Seattle	32.0	14.2	46.2
6.	Indianapolis	27.8	17.3	45.1
7.	Tampa Bay	30.9	13.6	44.5
8.	San Francisco	27.7	16.6	44.3
9.	New England	24.3	19.2	43.5
10.	Green Bay	26.6	16.6	43.2
11.	Tennessee	26.4	16.6	43.0
12.	Philadelphia	28.2	14.1	42.2
13.	Arizona	24.5	17.0	41.4
14.	Minnesota	24.6	16.6	41.3
15.	Cleveland	24.0	16.6	40.6
16.	Pittsburgh	28.6	12.0	40.6
17.	Atlanta	29.8	10.6	40.3
18.	LA Rams	23.7	16.3	40.0
19.	Houston	25.8	13.8	39.5
20.	Detroit	28.8	10.6	39.4
21.	Las Vegas	23.7	12.8	36.5
22.	Buffalo	23.8	12.3	36.2
23.	NY Giants	23.0	13.1	36.2
24.	Denver	22.9	11.8	34.7
25.	Cincinnati	22.4	11.4	33.8
26.	Chicago	21.9	11.0	32.9
27.	Carolina	19.8	12.8	32.6
28.	LA Chargers	20.3	12.2	32.5
29.	NY Jets	24.5	7.4	31.8
30.	Miami	21.6	8.6	30.2
31.	Jacksonville	23.0	6.4	29.4
32.	Washington	18.6	10.7	29.3

For passing, my top 4 are the same I’ve been riding all along. It’s Kansas City and those three teams in the NFC South. God help Carolina’s pass defense.

Teams ranked by 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Team	Yards	TDP	Pts/G
1.	Kansas City	305	2.49	45.4
2.	Atlanta	300	1.86	41.2
3.	New Orleans	280	2.13	40.8
4.	Tampa Bay	285	1.93	40.1
5.	Detroit	281	1.80	38.9
6.	Pittsburgh	278	1.79	38.5
7.	Dallas	272	1.86	38.4
8.	Seattle	260	2.00	38.0
9.	LA Rams	275	1.48	36.4
10.	Philadelphia	257	1.76	36.3
11.	Indianapolis	258	1.74	36.2
12.	San Francisco	258	1.73	36.2
13.	Green Bay	252	1.66	35.2
14.	Baltimore	225	2.04	34.7
15.	Arizona	255	1.53	34.7
16.	Las Vegas	257	1.48	34.6
17.	Houston	246	1.61	34.3
18.	Tennessee	238	1.65	33.7
19.	Minnesota	244	1.54	33.6
20.	Cleveland	237	1.50	32.7
21.	NY Giants	240	1.44	32.6
22.	Cincinnati	242	1.40	32.6
23.	NY Jets	233	1.53	32.5
24.	Jacksonville	238	1.44	32.4
25.	New England	233	1.52	32.4
26.	Denver	236	1.43	32.2
27.	Buffalo	229	1.49	31.8
28.	Miami	232	1.35	31.3
29.	Chicago	227	1.37	30.9
30.	LA Chargers	220	1.27	29.6
31.	Carolina	220	1.24	29.4
32.	Washington	216	1.16	28.6

For running the ball, I’ve got New England in the No. 2 spot, but the six teams ranked right behind them should get more rushing yards and TDs from their running backs (but with less quarterback production).

Teams ranked by 6 points for TD runs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Team	Yards	TDR	Pts/G
1.	Baltimore	168	1.12	23.5
2.	New England	125	1.20	19.7
3.	Indianapolis	128	1.08	19.3
4.	Cleveland	129	1.04	19.1
5.	Tennessee	128	1.04	19.0
6.	Minnesota	125	1.04	18.7
7.	Dallas	122	1.03	18.4
8.	San Francisco	121	1.04	18.3
9.	Arizona	116	1.06	18.0
10.	Seattle	126	.89	17.9
11.	Kansas City	111	1.04	17.3
12.	Green Bay	110	1.04	17.2
13.	Houston	119	.86	17.1
14.	LA Rams	108	1.02	16.9
15.	New Orleans	115	.89	16.8
16.	Buffalo	122	.77	16.8
17.	Philadelphia	112	.88	16.5
18.	Las Vegas	115	.80	16.3
19.	NY Giants	112	.82	16.1
20.	LA Chargers	115	.76	16.1
21.	Cincinnati	114	.71	15.7
22.	Denver	110	.74	15.4
23.	Carolina	104	.80	15.2
24.	Pittsburgh	103	.75	14.8
25.	Detroit	108	.66	14.8
26.	Tampa Bay	90	.85	14.1
27.	Washington	100	.67	14.0
28.	Chicago	95	.69	13.6
29.	Atlanta	88	.66	12.8
30.	Miami	88	.54	12.0
31.	NY Jets	92	.46	12.0
32.	Jacksonville	92	.40	11.6

—Ian Allan

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