Is the NFL going to see four quarterbacks with 40 touchdown passes for the first time? As we approach the halfway point of the season, that seems to be where things are headed.

Russell Wilson leads the way. He’s on pace to break Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 55 touchdown passes.

But three of other quarterbacks are also on pace to throw more than 40, including Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.

Previously, there’s been only one season in which three quarterbacks went for 40. In the 2011 seaso, with Drew Brees, Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

Two other quarterbacks are also throwing plenty of touchdowns. Justin Herbert didn’t play in Week 1, but he’s thrown 15 in his six games – that would be 40 if he had that rate going for a full 16 games. And Ryan Tannehill has continued where he left off in the second half of last year; he’s on pace for 39 TDs.

In the chart below, you’re seeing all quarterbacks who’ve thrown 38 touchdown pases in a season. For the 2020 guys (in bold) you’re see where they would project to finish if they were to continue their current pace over a full 16-game season.

MOST TOUCHDOWN PASSES
YearPlayerTD
2020Russell Wilson, Sea.59.4
2013Peyton Manning, Den.55
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.50
2007Tom Brady, N.E.50
2004Peyton Manning, Ind.49
1984Dan Marino, Mia.48
2011Drew Brees, N.O.46
2020Aaron Rodgers, G.B.45.7
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B.45
1986Dan Marino, Mia.44
2012Drew Brees, N.O.43
2020Patrick Mahomes, K.C.42.0
2020Tom Brady, T.B.41.1
2011Matthew Stafford, Det.41
1999Kurt Warner, Rams41
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.40
2014Andrew Luck, Ind.40
2020Justin Herbert, LAC40.0
2018Andrew Luck, Ind.39
2014Peyton Manning, Den.39
2013Drew Brees, N.O.39
2012Aaron Rodgers, G.B.39
2011Tom Brady, N.E.39
2004Daunte Culpepper, Minn.39
1996Brett Favre, G.B.39
2020Ryan Tannehill, Ten.38.9
2016Matt Ryan, Atl.38
2014Aaron Rodgers, G.B.38
1995Brett Favre, G.B.38

—Ian Allan