Fantasy News

November 03, 2020

Revised team projections

Elite quarterbacks power the top offenses

The NFL tradeline has passed, and no blockbuster deals were made. Will Fuller, Kyle Rudolph, Alshon Jeffery and others are staying in place. So the revised rankings that went out earlier today survive largely intact.

There are a couple of news items that have moved in the last few hours. Most notably, Myles Gaskin (knee) won’t play this week. And there were a couple of lower-level trades, with DeAndre Washington shipped from Kansas City to Miami, and the Dolphins sending reserve receiver Isaiah Ford to the Patriots.

The Cowboys are benching The Nooch. They’ll start Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert this week. But whatever.

In regards to the revised rankings that out in the Redrafter each Tuesday, I also most weeks like to post the accompanying team numbers. This allows you to see which overall offenses we’re thinking will put up the best numbers.

For general scoring, we’ve got the Seahawks, Packers and Buccaneers at the top, all averaging about three and half touchdowns per week. At the bottom of the heap, we’ve got the Dolphins, Bears and the two New York teams.

On the numbers here, you’re seeing 16-game totals. Those aren’t the expected end totals. Teams don’t get any credit for yards and points that have already occurred. Instead, it’s an estimation of how many touchdowns each offense would score if it were starting a 16-game season total. (Basically, each team has about eight games left – you take the production those eight games and double it.)

TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
Rk	Offense	Pass	Run	Total
1.	Seattle	42.4	15.4	57.8
2.	Green Bay	40.8	16.6	57.4
3.	Tampa Bay	39.2	16.8	56.0
4.	Kansas City	37.6	16.2	53.8
5.	New Orleans	32.0	19.5	51.5
6.	Pittsburgh	33.9	17.1	51.0
7.	LA Rams	26.7	21.0	47.7
8.	Arizona	26.2	21.3	47.5
9.	Minnesota	24.8	22.4	47.2
10.	Tennessee	28.3	18.2	46.6
11.	Baltimore	26.7	18.2	45.0
12.	Las Vegas	30.6	13.8	44.3
13.	Philadelphia	29.3	14.9	44.2
14.	Cleveland	25.6	17.9	43.5
15.	San Francisco	23.2	19.2	42.4
16.	Buffalo	29.0	12.5	41.4
17.	Detroit	27.0	14.1	41.1
18.	LA Chargers	29.6	10.9	40.5
19.	Houston	31.4	9.0	40.3
20.	Indianapolis	22.9	16.6	39.5
21.	Atlanta	24.8	14.4	39.2
22.	Cincinnati	24.8	13.9	38.7
23.	New England	16.8	21.6	38.4
24.	Carolina	20.0	17.6	37.6
25.	Washington	21.3	13.6	34.9
26.	Denver	20.6	13.9	34.6
27.	Dallas	23.2	10.4	33.6
28.	Jacksonville	25.1	8.5	33.6
29.	NY Giants	23.8	9.7	33.5
30.	Miami	20.8	12.0	32.8
31.	Chicago	23.2	7.5	30.7
32.	NY Jets	15.2	5.9	21.1

For team passing projections, we’ve got the same five teams at the top: Seahawks, Saints, Kansas City and the two Bays.

We’ve got three AFC East teams at the bottom: Patriots, Jets, Dolphins.

The numbers here are of the per-game variety and use the scoring format of 6 points for each touchdown pass and 1 point for every 10 passing yards.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Offense	Yards	TDP	Points
1.	Seattle	290	2.65	44.9
2.	Tampa Bay	285	2.45	43.2
3.	Green Bay	275	2.55	42.8
4.	Kansas City	285	2.35	42.6
5.	New Orleans	285	2.00	40.5
6.	Houston	285	1.96	40.3
7.	LA Chargers	280	1.85	39.1
8.	Las Vegas	270	1.91	38.5
9.	Atlanta	290	1.55	38.3
10.	Pittsburgh	255	2.12	38.2
11.	Buffalo	265	1.81	37.4
12.	Philadelphia	260	1.83	37.0
13.	Cincinnati	275	1.55	36.8
14.	LA Rams	265	1.67	36.5
15.	Detroit	260	1.69	36.1
16.	San Francisco	265	1.45	35.2
17.	Tennessee	240	1.77	34.6
18.	Jacksonville	245	1.57	33.9
19.	Arizona	240	1.64	33.8
20.	Minnesota	245	1.55	33.8
21.	Carolina	260	1.25	33.5
22.	Dallas	245	1.45	33.2
23.	Indianapolis	245	1.43	33.1
24.	Chicago	240	1.45	32.7
25.	NY Giants	225	1.49	31.4
26.	Cleveland	215	1.60	31.1
27.	Denver	230	1.29	30.7
28.	Baltimore	205	1.67	30.5
29.	Washington	225	1.33	30.5
30.	Miami	210	1.30	28.8
31.	NY Jets	195	.95	25.2
32.	New England	180	1.05	24.3

For rushing production, the top four include the Vikings and three teams with mobile quarterbacks – Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals.

Bottom three include the Bears, Jaguars and Jets.

The numbers here are also per-game, using 6 points for each rushing touchdown and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
Rk	Offense	Yards	TDR	Points
1.	New England	175	1.35	25.6
2.	Baltimore	185	1.14	25.3
3.	Minnesota	145	1.40	22.9
4.	Arizona	145	1.33	22.5
5.	LA Rams	132	1.31	21.1
6.	Tennessee	127	1.14	19.5
7.	New Orleans	120	1.22	19.3
8.	Cleveland	125	1.12	19.2
9.	San Francisco	120	1.20	19.2
10.	Pittsburgh	122	1.07	18.6
11.	Kansas City	122	1.01	18.3
12.	Carolina	115	1.10	18.1
13.	Philadelphia	120	.93	17.6
14.	Las Vegas	123	.86	17.5
15.	Seattle	117	.96	17.5
16.	Tampa Bay	107	1.05	17.0
17.	Green Bay	105	1.04	16.7
18.	Indianapolis	105	1.04	16.7
19.	Denver	115	.87	16.7
20.	LA Chargers	125	.68	16.6
21.	Buffalo	115	.78	16.2
22.	Atlanta	105	.90	15.9
23.	Detroit	100	.88	15.3
24.	Dallas	105	.65	14.4
25.	Cincinnati	90	.87	14.2
26.	NY Giants	105	.61	14.1
27.	Washington	90	.85	14.1
28.	Miami	85	.75	13.0
29.	Houston	90	.56	12.4
30.	NY Jets	100	.37	12.2
31.	Jacksonville	90	.53	12.2
32.	Chicago	84	.47	11.2

—Ian Allan

Russell Wilson

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