The Fantasy Index Weekly issues are done for the season, but we’ll preview the four remaining teams over the next several days anyway. At the end of the week, we’ll put all the projections together and see how the player rankings shake out. First up, the Buffalo Bills.
Overview:
These teams met in Buffalo in Week 6, a 26-17 Kansas City win. The game was originally scheduled for Thursday, but due to COVID-19 cases (that delayed Buffalo’s Week 5 game at Tennessee) it was pushed back to Monday, giving Kansas City extra preparation time and affecting Buffalo’s schedule – not necessarily a big deal, but possibly. Whatever the case, those two games were Buffalo’s lowest offensive outputs all season (16 and 17 points, and 2 of their 3 losses). The last previous meeting was in 2017 and not meaningful (Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith were the quarterbacks in that one). These teams faced each other in the AFC Championship game after the 1993 season, with Jim Kelly leading the Bills past a Joe Montana-led Kansas City team. … Kansas City is favored by only 3, with an over-under of 53.5, suggesting a 28-25 type of game. The uncertainty over whether Patrick Mahomes will clear the concussion protocol and be available for Kansas City might be a factor in that line; seems like Buffalo should be a bigger underdog, if Mahomes is playing. … Early forecast for Sunday evening in Kansas City indicates temperatures around 40 degrees, with a 40 percent chance of rain showers and winds about 5-10 mph. ... Buffalo will probably score 3 touchdowns in this game. It averaged 3.5 during the season, while Kansas City allowed 2.7 per game, so 3 is about right. That at least gives them a puncher's chance of springing the upset.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen will lead the way for Buffalo’s offense. As usual; the Bills ranked 17 spots higher in passing (3rd) than rushing (20th) during the season. There were only four more pass-oriented offenses (Atlanta, Detroit, Houston and Tampa Bay), and the difference between Buffalo’s passing and rushing would be even greater if you removed Allen’s own rushing contributions from the equation. That’s carried over to the playoff games (Buffalo averaged 265 passing yards and 64 rushing yards in those two contests).
Allen had a huge season, averaging 284 passing yards and throwing 37 touchdowns – multiple touchdown passes 13 times in 16 contests. His worst game, though, was against Kansas City. He was 14 of 27 for just 122 yards in that one, with 2 touchdowns and an interception. That game was very much an exception, and Kansas City had an average pass defense (15th) during the season. It was also much better in the first half of the season (when these teams played) than the second. Kansas City in its first eight allowed 213 yards per game and 9 touchdown passes. In its last eight it allowed 283 yards and 20 touchdowns, including at least 2 TD passes in all of those games – 2 TDs four times, and 3 TDs four times. That’s in line for what to expect from Allen as a passer. Baker Mayfield finished with just 204 and 1 last week, but he’s not at Allen’s level (and lost a touchdown on the fumble through the end zone play).
It’s Allen’s running potential that might enable him to outperform the other three, Hall of Fame quarterbacks playing this weekend. During the season he averaged 26 yards per game, with 8 touchdowns – 8-9 TDs on the ground in each of his first three seasons. He’s run for 57 yards and a score in the two playoff games. Baltimore bottled that up last week (just 3 actual runs for 8 yards, plus 4 kneel downs), but Allen should come through with something close to his averages. He carried 8 times for 42 yards in the regular-season meeting.
RUNNING BACKS
Set aside Josh Allen rushing, and the Bills would have gone over 100 yards on the ground just three times (against the Patriots, Chargers and Broncos). They averaged just 81 rushing yards minus Allen, which would have ranked last in the league. Zack Moss (ankle) is out for the year, so at least Devin Singletary should play close to full-time. But even that won’t necessarily mean good production. Singletary and Moss combined to carry it 10 times for 42 yards against the Colts, and then Singletary (7 for 25) and T.J. Yeldon (2 for 4) did even less against Baltimore. Those were two of the league’s best run defenses during the season, but it simply isn’t something the offense is looking to do, even in favorable matchups. Kansas City ranked 21st in run defense, allowing 122 yards per game, but just as this defense flip-flopped against the pass from the first half to the second half, it was much different against the run. It allowed 143 rushing yards in the first eight games, and just 102 in the last eight. In the Week 6 game Allen rushed for half (42) of Buffalo’s 84 yards; Singletary carried 10 times for 32 yards in that game.
It will be a surprise, then, if Buffalo rushes for more than about 90 yards in this game. The Singletary-Moss combo averaged 80, and when Moss missed three games due to a toe injury, Singletary averaged 51 yards rushing, with 1 TD. Buffalo running backs combined for just 8 touchdowns on the ground (4 for Moss, 2 for Singletary, and 2 by Antonio Williams in a meaningless Week 17 game).
Singletary and Moss did combine to average 24 receiving yards, production that should all go to Singletary (who was more involved in that capacity during the season anyway). He was up at 17 yards per game, although Moss caught the pair’s only touchdown. They caught 7 for 49 against the Colts; 3 for 12 for Singletary a week ago. There’s enough there, then, to think that Singletary could finish with around 80 total yards. With the three other teams still playing likely to have multiple backs playing significant roles, he should outperform some of those players based on volume alone. No one else is a lock to play over 80 percent of the snaps, as Singletary did last week. But the scoring odds aren’t great (just 7 total touchdowns for Buffalo running backs in the team’s 18 meaningful games), giving him a lower ceiling than the week’s other main running backs. Among the final four teams, only Tampa Bay allowed fewer rushing scores (10) during the season than Kansas City (14).
WIDE RECEIVERS
Three of the league’s very best wide receivers are still playing; more if you want to count one or two of the Tampa Bay wideouts. But in Stefon Diggs the Bills have the season’s league leader in targets (166), receptions (127) and yards (1,535), and he’s kept that going in both playoff games: 6 for 128 against the Colts and 8 for 106 against the Ravens, with touchdowns in both contests. Diggs wasn’t as good a scorer during the season (8 touchdowns) as Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill or Mike Evans, but he’s been hot lately, with 6 touchdowns in his last five meaningful games, and 100-plus yards in all of them. Diggs caught 6 passes and a touchdown in the earlier meeting, although those catches went for only 46 yards.
Cole Beasley also caught a touchdown in the earlier meeting, on 4 for 45 receiving. He wasn’t nearly as consistent as Diggs, catching 3 or fewer passes in five of his last 10 games. That includes getting shut out on just 2 targets against Baltimore, with John Brown (8 for 62) having a much bigger role. The Colts game was the opposite (Beasley caught 7 for 57, while Brown was shut out on 4 targets). In the eight games both were available during the season, each finished with more yards than the other four times. Beasley averaged 68 yards, with 4 touchdowns, in his 14 healthy games during the season, while Brown averaged 51, with 3 scores. Difficult to favor either player too greatly, with the matchups likely dictating who finishes with better numbers, but the history benefits Beasley (Brown was shut out on 4 targets in Week 6).
It’s not just a three-man mix, with fourth-rounder Gabriel Davis also involved. He was shut out against Baltimore, but played nearly half the snaps and saw 4 targets. He saw the same number of targets against the Colts, catching all 4 of them for 85 yards (behind only Diggs). During the season he finished under 15 yards in five of the eight games the other two were available, so definitely a hit or miss option. Just 1 catch for 7 yards in the earlier meeting.
TIGHT ENDS
With Buffalo having a lot of good wide receivers, it was hard for Dawson Knox to make much of an impact (and that’s even with John Brown missing half the season). Knox also missed four games (including the earlier meeting), catching just 24 passes in 12 regular-season contests – more than 2 just three times all year. That includes 2 for 5 and 2 for 18 in the two playoff games. But Knox did catch 4 touchdowns (including a score against the Colts), all since Week 12, cashing in after a couple of near-misses early in the season. Knox also dropped a touchdown at New England in Week 16. Kansas City allowed 9 touchdowns to tight ends during the season, tied with Tampa Bay for most of the teams still playing, and only slightly fewer than they allowed to wide receivers (15). Lee Smith caught 2 touchdowns during the season, but he was almost exclusively a blocker (just 6 targets all season).
KICKER
Tyler Bass averaged 8.8 kicking points, most of the four remaining kickers, but here he’ll face a defense that allowed under 6 kicking points, fewest of the remaining teams. Just 18 field goals against Kansas City this season, 3-5 fewer than those other defenses allowed. Difficult to settle for field goals against one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses, although that’s true for all four kickers (Kansas City was just 6th in scoring during the season, while Green Bay-Buffalo-Tampa Bay finished 1-2-3). Defense wins championships? Bass missed a pair of kicks against Baltimore (from 43 and 44 yards), but swirling winds were a factor (Justin Tucker also missed two kicks). He had a strong season, though he’s definitely less battle-tested than the other remaining kickers, with the statistically worst matchup.
DEFENSE
We're assuming it will be Patrick Mahomes at quarterback for Kansas City. That's not certain, with him needing to clear the league's concussion protocol. But the team isn't even saying that he suffered a concussion, rather that he was placed in the protocol because of his symptoms (stumbling as he tried to stand after taking a hit on a third-and-1 scramble). By the end of the week things should be clear, but it will likely be Mahomes. He threw only 6 interceptions during the season (more than Aaron Rodgers, but fewer than the other remaining quarterbacks), while taking just 22 sacks (fewer than Josh Allen, 1-2 more than the others). Buffalo had only an average pass rush (38 sacks) while intercepting 15 passes (Top-10, but better than only Green Bay of the final four). They sacked Mahomes only once in the earlier meeting, with no interceptions.
Fumble numbers are a little more promising (Buffalo recovered 11, most of the teams still playing, while Kansas City lost 9, fewer than Buffalo but 3-4 more than the NFC teams). The Bills had a fumble recovery in the earlier meeting. Buffalo scored 3 defensive touchdowns, including a pivotal Pick Six last week, but 2 of its scores during the season were against Miami in a meaningless finale, while Kansas City allowed only 1. Andre Roberts is one of the league's better return men, though the team's only touchdown this year was by Isaiah McKenzie, filling in for Roberts in that Miami game.
Next: Kansas City.
--Andy Richardson