Kansas City won the Week 6 meeting in Buffalo by a 26-17 score. It was a highly unusual game for the offense, the only game all year when it had more yards rushing (245) than passing (225). The season-long numbers were dramatically different (313 yards passing and 112 yards rushing). But that earlier encounter raises the possibility that Kansas City works the run more than usual. Either way, probably 3-4 touchdowns (the numbers suggest just over 3).

At home and with the experience advantage, we’re thinking they do enough to advance to their second straight Super Bowl. As long as they have their quarterback available, that is.

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes is in the concussion protocol, but we’re proceeding as if he’ll be available. Andy Reid was speaking positively after the game, but the team won’t know for sure until they see how he responds during the week. It’s his first reported concussion. Mahomes also has a foot injury of some kind – no way that keeps him out, but it might affect his mobility. If it instead looks like it will be Chad Henne, we’ll revise all the offensive numbers on Friday -- both yards and touchdown potential would move downward by at least 25 percent. At a bare minimum, Mahomes will likely miss some practice reps, and the 20 rushing yards with 2 TDs he averaged during the season (plus another against Cleveland last week) need to be scaled back – aside from the foot injury, exposing him to any excess hits in this game should be off the table. There probably won’t be any designed runs, and he won’t scramble as often as he might in a typical game.

Strictly for passing, it’s at least an average matchup. Buffalo ranked 13th against the pass during the season, allowing 247 yards per game and 23 touchdown passes, but played six divisional games against passing offenses ranked outside the top 20 (Miami, New England and the Jets). Set aside those games and the Bills allowed 264 yards, with 19 touchdown passes in 10 games. That’s above-average production, and Mahomes is one of the league’s very best passers – unlikely this defense can hold him below those numbers. Mahomes threw for just 225 yards in the earlier meeting, but was in no way slowed down. He completed 21 of 26 and threw 2 touchdowns; Kansas City controlled things on the ground. Possible that happens again, but out of character for the offense. Mahomes looked pretty sharp against Cleveland, throwing for 255 yards and with 2 total touchdowns, and that while being sidelined in the third quarter. Buffalo held Baltimore’s lesser passing game to 222 yards last week, but Philip Rivers threw for 309 and 2 touchdowns, and he’s more a comparable passer. We’re expecting numbers only a little below Mahomes’ usual output, with the question marks surrounding his health the main concern.

RUNNING BACKS

Clyde-Edwards-Helaire had what seemed to be a breakout performance in the earlier meeting, carrying 26 times for 161 yards. That was right after the team picked up LeVeon Bell, who wasn’t available to play in that one. From that point forward, though, Edwards-Helaire put up modest numbers: just 60 total yards per game (43 run, 17 rec) in his last seven, with 4 touchdowns. In most of those games he played about half the snaps, with Bell the No. 2. Edwards-Helaire had one of his better games at New Orleans in Week 15 (14 carries for 79 yards) but suffered ankle and hip injuries and hasn’t played since. The guess is that he’ll be available, but that’s not certain (he was expected to return against Cleveland but wound up inactive after not practicing Thursday or Friday).

Even if he plays, it seems more likely that Darrel Williams will be the main runner. While Bell was the backup the second half of the season, it’s been Williams with a leading role in the two meaningful games since Edwards-Helaire got hurt. He carried 10 for 46 against Atlanta and 13 for 78 against Cleveland, while also catching 4 passes in each game. Bell played less than half as often against the Falcons and just 11 snaps last week, totaling 10 touches and 45 yards in those contests. The team pretty clearly soured on Bell (they did the same, recall, with LeSean McCoy during last year’s playoffs), and with Williams playing well and Edwards-Helaire not having suited up in a month, would be very surprising if the rookie were the main back – a secondary role in a committee is more likely. Williams looks like the superior choice. Setting aside the uncertain division of labor, the matchup looks reasonable enough. Buffalo ranked 21st in run defense, and allowed 21 touchdowns (only five teams allowed more). Coming off a concussion, Mahomes seems less likely to account for any potential rushing scores than usual. Kansas City rushed for a season-high 245 yards in the earlier meeting, with Edwards-Helaire’s huge game being added to by Williams rushing for 26 yards and a score. They won’t be nearly that productive, but between the matchup and a possible desire to protect Mahomes (or Chad Henne, should things go that way), they’ll probably run a little more than usual. (If Edwards-Helaire is inactive again, and given the committees and matchups elsewhere, Williams might be the week’s top back.)

WIDE RECEIVERS

With the passing game not doing much in the earlier meeting, Tyreek Hill caught only 3 passes for 20 yards – his lowest output of the season. In his other 14 contests he averaged 90 yards, with 17 touchdowns (15 rec, 2 run). Those kind of numbers are a lot more likely, with Buffalo having just an average pass defense and allowing 15 touchdowns to wide receivers, slightly better than average. Hill caught 8 passes last week, one of his four higher totals of the season. Buffalo’s first two playoff opponents have each put a wide receiver over 87 yards, and those guys aren’t on Hill’s level.

Once you get past Hill, it’s a crap shoot – who will be available, and who will see the next-most targets at the position. Sammy Watkins suffered a calf injury in Week 16, and didn’t practice at all last week before being ruled out on Friday. Maybe he plays, but seems just as likely he’s inactive again. Watkins had only two games with even 60 yards and 1 touchdown since the opener, so he’d look like an iffy option even at full health. During the season, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman put up similar numbers. Robinson averaged 29 yards per game, Hardman 36, each with 3-4 touchdowns. When Watkins was sidelined, Robinson moved up to 45 yards per game, compared to 40 for Hardman. Robinson was a standout in the Week 6 game (5 for 69); Hardman didn’t catch a pass. Last week the two played a similar number of snaps, and Hardman (4 for 58) had a better game (Robinson caught 1 for 13). Difficult to latch onto any of these wideouts with much confidence you’ll get the team’s 2nd-best option (Bryon Pringle even caught 2 passes last week while playing nearly half the snaps).

TIGHT ENDS

The other negative with the wideouts is that Travis Kelce looks pretty much unstoppable these days. He’s caught touchdowns in five straight games, and 8-plus passes in eight of his last nine. He dominated the earlier meeting, catching 5 balls for 65 yards and 2 TDs on seven targets. He’d probably be the week’s top tight end even if all 32 teams were still playing, and is an easy choice with only four teams left. He finished with 18 more catches for 140 more yards than Hill even with the wideout having a 269-yard performance in there. Kansas City didn’t have another tight end average more than half a catch per game during the season. Ricky Seals-Jones was active for just the third time all year against Cleveland, playing 4 snaps and drawing a penalty that pushed the team out of field goal range on a late drive.

KICKERS

Kansas City averaged an ordinary 7.7 kicking points, with the offense attempting twice as many extra points (54) as field goals (27). Harrison Butker missed just 2 field goals (and one off the upright last week, while making 3 others), but 6 extra points. Not his best season, and Buffalo allowed just 101 kicking points (6.3 per game, tied for 8th-fewest). Butker had 8 in the earlier meeting, kicking 2 short field goals but also missing an extra point.

DEFENSE

The Kansas City Defense has the best matchup. Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season, but he was the most mistake-prone of the remaining 4 quarterbacks (the other three have all won Super Bowls and will be first-ballot Hall of Famers). His 10 interceptions were 4-5 more than Rodgers and Mahomes, and his 26 sacks were at least 4 more than all of them. He also lost 6 fumbles. Kansas City has the most interceptions of the remaining teams (16). But it has the fewest sacks (32) and fumble recoveries (6). Returns provide an edge, especially over the NFC teams (since Buffalo is also good in this regard). Both Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle scored on returns during the season. But Buffalo didn’t allow any defensive or special teams scores during the season.

Next: Tampa Bay.

--Andy Richardson