Overview: In Week 12, Kansas City won 27-24 in Tampa Bay. The score suggests it was anybody's game, but worth noting that Kansas City led 27-10 in the third quarter -- the game was a laugher until the Bucs scored a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns, forcing Kansas City to pick up a late first down to run out the clock. Still, Kansas City opened as only a 3.5-point favorite, and the line has moved to 3 in most places. The betting public, at least, anticipates a close game.
The game will be played at Tampa Bay's home stadium (first time in Super Bowl history), although home field advantage hasn't meant much this year, with stadiums either empty or nearly empty. There will be 22,000 fans in attendance, about one-third of Raymond James capacity, and it won't necessarily be a partisan group, with a third of the tickets going to vaccinated health-care workers from NFL cities around the league.
Kansas City is the defending Super Bowl champ, going 14-2 and losing just one game this season it was trying to win (against the Raiders; their loss to the Chargers in Week 17, with many starters rested, doesn't count). Tampa Bay went just 11-5, but has won seven straight (since losing to Kansas City), including three playoff wins on the road. The over-under of 56.5 indicates a 30-27 type of game.
QUARTERBACK
In some ways, this is an ideal situation for Patrick Mahomes. There is virtually no chance of Kansas City being able to emphasize the ground game against Tampa Bay’s league-best run defense for two years running; in the earlier meeting they didn’t even try (just 7 first-half attempts). There’s also little chance of this being a low-scoring defensive struggle, with both teams having top-7 offenses. It will be Mahomes throwing the ball early and often, against a defense that in the regular season was ranked 23rd against the pass. Mahomes averaged 316 passing yards and just over 2.5 TDs per game during the season, and that kind of production looks like his floor here. In the Week 12 encounter, he was a lot better, completing 37 of 49 (75 percent) for 462 yards and 3 TDs.
And that’s just passing; Mahomes also averaged over 20 rushing yards during the season, with 2 TDs; 4 for 28 in the game at Tampa. Just 5 yards in the fairly one-sided playoff win over Buffalo, coming off a concussion and dealing with a turf-toe injury, but he went for 14 and a score on the ground before being knocked out against Cleveland. We’re ranking him as the better quarterback in this game – passing, rushing, touchdowns.
The matchup isn’t without concerns. Tampa Bay had the league’s 4th-ranked pass rush during the season, and Kansas City lost left tackle Eric Fisher in the AFC Championship game. It also probably won’t have Mitchell Schwartz (who’s missed most of the season); instead it should be Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie at the tackle spots. Remmers is a journeyman who’s mostly played right tackle in his career, while Wylie has primarily played guard. The Bucs, with four players with 6-plus sacks during the season (Jason Pierre-Paul, Devin White, Shaq Barrett and Ndamukong Suh), were able to take down Aaron Rodgers 5 times in the NFC Championship. Rodgers was sacked even fewer times than Mahomes during the season (22-20), but was also working behind a backup left tackle. If Tampa Bay is able to similarly exploit Kansas City’s damaged line, this game will get very interesting.
But Mahomes over his career has played 11 games against top-10 pass rushes (including San Francisco in last year’s Super Bowl). Four of those teams sacked him 3-5 times, but he won all 11 games, passing for over 300 yards in six of them, and 3-plus TDs in five of them. Tampa Bay sacked him twice in Week 12 and he still finished with top numbers. The Bucs will probably win some of those battles at the line of scrimmage, but Mahomes will win plenty of plays, too. (Rodgers passed for 346 yards and 3 TDs despite all those sacks.) Mahomes should finish with his usual big numbers.
RUNNING BACKS
A report last week indicated that LeVeon Bell is expected to play in the Super Bowl. Take that with a grain of salt: Bell looks like the team’s 3rd running back these days, and he doesn’t play special teams, so while he may now be healthy (he didn’t practice due to a knee injury prior to the AFC Championship), he won’t necessarily be active. (Kansas City made another veteran, LeSean McCoy, a healthy scratch for the Super Bowl a year ago, after claiming they were just managing his reps leading up to the game.)
It will almost certainly be Darrel Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the team’s top 2 backs, with Williams looking like the better bet. Edwards-Helaire was the starter most of the season, but he suffered hip and ankle injuries against New Orleans in Week 15, then was sidelined until the AFC Championship. He started that game and wound up playing half the snaps, so he’s presumably healthy, but Williams got twice as many touches (14-7) and was a lot more effective. He carried 13 times for 52 yards and a score while catching a 9-yard pass, while Edwards-Helaire’s 6 runs and 1 catch went for a total of 7 yards, with a touchdown. Edwards-Helaire is healthier now (he practiced fully both Thursday and Friday after being limited the previous week) and should again get at least half the snaps, but Williams looks like the superior option. In his three meaningful games since Edwards-Helaire went down he’s averaged 76 total yards (59 run, 17 rec), with last week’s touchdown.
Besides the fact playing time might be split fairly evenly, the matchup is terrible. Tampa Bay has ranked No. 1 in run defense two years in a row. During the season they allowed 3.6 yards per attempt and just 10 rushing scores, also league-best figures. As the lead back in Week 12, Edwards-Helaire carried 11 times for 37 yards (Bell was 5 for 22, while then No. 3 Williams barely played). Kansas City built its 27-10 lead in that one with 37 pass attempts and 10 runs deep into the third quarter. They could hardly be less balanced this time around, but that’s the kind of approach to expect again. Unlikely either back has a big game. Edwards-Helaire was more involved as a receiver in games both were healthy for this season, but Williams was similarly effective (18 catches on 26 targets, compared to 36 on 54 for the rookie), so not a heavy favorite for production there. Kansas City also scored more than three times as many touchdowns on passes rather than runs (40-13), similar to what this defense allowed (29-10). If Kansas City has a rushing score, there are at least three reasonable possibilities to score it, including both running backs and Mahomes, with a couple of different wide receivers also candidates.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Most will remember what Tyreek Hill did against this opponent in the regular season. He caught 13 passes for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, including over 200 receiving yards in the first quarter. He also got free for the game-clinching 8-yard reception in the final minutes. Little reason to believe Tampa Bay will have much success covering him here.
The No. 2 is less certain. Sammy Watkins hasn’t played since injuring a calf in Week 16. He was able to practice on a limited basis on Thursday, then didn’t practice on Friday. That might have been just managing his reps in the lead up to the Super Bowl; his participation this week will need to be monitored. But the guess is that he’ll play, and be the prime beneficiary of the Bucs no doubt rolling coverage toward Hill after the way he torched them in the earlier meeting. Watkins saw 7 targets that game, catching 4 for 38 yards. He was mostly disappointing all season, though. After catching 7 balls and a touchdown in Week 1, he proceeded to catch just 30 passes and 1 TD in his other nine games – pretty meager production considering the offense he was working in.
Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman are iffy options who will look a little better if it starts to appear that Watkins won’t play. In 10 games with Watkins in the lineup, Hardman averaged just 32 yards, albeit with 4 TDs. Robinson averaged just 19 yards and scored only once in those contests. In the eight games Watkins missed (including the playoffs), Hardman averaged 38 yards and scored twice, while Robinson averaged 36, also with 2 TDs. But Robinson has caught only 1 pass despite playing over two thirds of the time in both playoff games, so best to set him aside even if Watkins doesn’t play. Byron Pringle actually played the 2nd-most snaps (behind Hill) against Buffalo; he’s started and caught 2-3 passes in each playoff game. Considerable risk in assuming you’ll have the team’s 2nd-busiest wideout with any of these players. For now the lean is it will be Watkins, although note all three (Watkins, Hardman, Robinson) were similar involved in the earlier meeting. Each caught 3-5 passes for 23-38 yards without scoring that day.
TIGHT ENDS
Two of the last decade’s three most productive tight ends (yards, touchdowns) – by far – are playing in this game. (The third is Jimmy Graham.) There’s no question who’s the more dominant player right now. Including the playoffs, Travis Kelce has scored in six straight and caught at least 8 passes in nine of 10 (“only” 7 in the exception). That includes catching all 8 passes thrown his way for 82 yards in the earlier meeting, with Hill hogging all the touchdown production. Presuming Hill is slightly more of a defensive focus this time around, Kelce would benefit, but it’s debatable whether there’s a defense capable of limiting him these days anyway. Only six teams allowed more touchdowns to tight ends (9) during the season than the Bucs; Robert Tonyan also scored last week.
KICKER
Kansas City ranked 11th in kicking points during the season, kicking about twice as many extra points (48) as field goals (25), even while missing 6 point after opportunities. Tampa Bay was a top-1o defense in this regard, allowing just over 6.3 kicking points, though even that was half a point higher than what Kansas City allowed (5.75). With two of the game's elite quarterbacks matched up in this one, it doesn't seem particularly likely to be a battle of field goals. Harrison Butker kicked just 1 field goal in five of his last six games. Kickers tend to fare better in wins than losses and Kansas City is a slight favorite, so we'll give him the edge over his counterpart.
DEFENSE
It's an interesting matchup with these two defenses. Tampa Bay had the far more productive defense during the season, with far more sacks (48-32) and slightly more takeaways (25-22). That's continued into the playoffs (7 sacks and 7 takeaways for the Bucs, compared to 5 and 3 for Kansas City, albeit in one fewer game). But Kansas City definitely has the better matchup, with Tom Brady throwing twice as many interceptions during the season (12-6) and then 3 more at Green Bay (none for Mahomes in the playoffs). Sacks are similar (22 for Mahomes during the season, 21 for Brady) with neither a very good matchup, but Brady's offensive line is much healthier.
Matchup, then, favors Kansas City, especially for takeaways. It's also got the superior return teams by a wide margin, with both Mecole Hardman and Bryon Pringle scoring touchdowns during the season. We're giving the Bucs the edge for sacks, which is the more predictable defensive category, but Kansas City looks better for takeaways and touchdowns.
Next: Tampa Bay.
--Andy Richardson