If there’s an underrated component to either of these Super Bowl teams, it might be Kansas City’s defense. During the season it was average in yards allowed (16th) and better than average in points (11th). Setting aside the meaningless Week 17 game, Kansas City allowed 2.5 touchdowns per game (the league-average was nearly 2.8). This isn't a great defense, but it's better than you might think.

So while Tampa Bay ranked 7th in yards and 3rd in scoring, with 3.6 touchdowns per game, we’re thinking the offense will finish below its usual output here. Including both playoff games against hot Cleveland and Buffalo offenses, more than half (10) of Kansas City’s opponents scored 2 or fewer touchdowns. The Bucs will probably score 3 TDs, but that looks like their ceiling. If one of these teams makes it up to 4 TDs, more likely it will be Kansas City.

QUARTERBACK

We know the moment won’t be too big for Tom Brady. It’s his 10th Super Bowl appearance, plus he’s faced Kansas City six times in the last five seasons (3-3, with a pair of postseason wins). But he’s lost the last two, with New England during the 2019 season (23-16) and with Tampa Bay this year (27-24). Brady threw for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns that day, but a lot of that production came in the fourth quarter of a game his team trailed 27-10. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was the architect of the Giants defense that handed Brady his first Super Bowl loss back in 2008, for those who want to take a trip down memory lane.

Kansas City ranked 15th against the pass during the season, but wasn’t that good the second half of the season. In the first eight games (with schedule a factor), it was weak against the run but allowed lesser passing production. Opposing quarterbacks averaged just 214 yards and threw 9 touchdowns in those games. Half of those contests were against the Ravens, Patriots, Jets and Broncos. In the last eight games (opposing passers included Brady, Brees, Ryan, Carr and Herbert) this defense allowed an average of 283 passing yards and 2-3 touchdown passes in every game. That’s a more accurate representation of where this defense is at right now, and with Tampa Bay being a lot better passing the ball (4th) than running it (28th), that’s the kind of production we’re expecting out of Brady. The Bucs scored nearly three-quarters (42 of 58) of their touchdowns on passes rather than runs, while Kansas City allowed 29 of 43 through the air. The Bucs should score 3 touchdowns in this game, and at least 2 will likely come on passes.

Brady doesn’t run it, but he’ll sneak it in near the goal line on occasion. He scored 3 TDs on the ground during the season, and another at New Orleans. That’s about half as many as either of the team’s running backs (who each scored 6-7), so clearly he’ll be a factor when the ball is near the goal line. Patrick Mahomes is the better quarterback right now, and he’s facing the weaker pass defense. But the statistical difference between the two in this game probably won’t be huge.

RUNNING BACKS

Ronald Jones was the main running back for most of the season, but it’s been Leonard Fournette in the postseason. That was influenced by Jones suffering a late-season quad injury that kept him out of the playoff win over Washington, but Jones practiced fully on the Friday before the NFC Championship game, yet still took a clear back seat: fewer than half as many snaps, and a lot less effective (10 carries for 16 yards; Fournette carried 12 times for 55 yards and a touchdown). Fournette is also the preferred back in the passing game (7 targets in that game, compared to none for Jones), even though he let 2 of those chances clang off his hands. Bruce Arians could still change things up – Jones seemed to have a little more juice against New Orleans – but far more likely Fournette is the main runner and does a lot more as a receiver. He’s caught 4, 5 and 5 passes in the playoff games.

Kansas City ranked 21st against the run this season, but as with the pass it was a tale of two seasons. In the first eight weeks this defense allowed 143 yards per game, in the last eight just 102. Leaving out Week 17, only Denver rushed for even 105 yards against this defense the second half of the season. Even Cleveland, a much better rushing team, went for a modest 112 yards. Unlikely Tampa Bay puts up big rushing numbers; it will be what Fournette does as a receiver that makes him look viable in lineups. Statistically there will probably be a rushing score at some point (Tampa Bay scored 16 during the season while Kansas City allowed 14), with Fournette the favorite. But Jones and Tom Brady are also candidates to punch one in near the goal line.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Kansas City probably has the top wideout in this game, but the next three best might all be from Tampa Bay. Certainly Mike Evans and Chris Godwin look very good. Both were strong in the Week 12 loss, with Evans catching only 3 passes, but 2 went for 31- and 7-yard touchdowns. He was the preferred red-zone option all season, catching 13 touchdowns, compared to 7 for Godwin. But Godwin caught only 5 fewer passes during the year (70-65) despite playing 4 fewer games; he caught 8 balls for 97 yards against this defense. He’s struggled some with drops over the past month, but led the way at Green Bay (5 for 110); Evans caught only 3 for 51, but with a touchdown. Reasonable to think Godwin will be more heavily targeted between the 20s, but there will be plenty of attempts to jam the ball into Evans near the goal line.

Antonio Brown is better than your average No. 3 receiver, but it’s difficult to have any confidence he’ll be available. He suffered a knee injury at New Orleans and hasn’t been able to practice since. It’s the Super Bowl and doubtless he’ll be out there at less than 100 percent if at all possible, but without even a limited practice this week he’s unlikely to play more than a handful of snaps if he’s active at all. Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson look like better bets as the No. 3 wideout. Johnson played the most at New Orleans, turning in one of the postseason’s more impressive catches in that game. Miller played a little more at Green Bay, sneaking behind the defense for the back-breaking touchdown bomb just before halftime. Both will probably chip in a couple of catches, but neither can be counted on for good numbers behind the top 2. Just half of the touchdowns (15 of 29) thrown against Kansas City went to wide receivers, and Evans is the sizable favorite to catch any scores.

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski had his top yardage game in the earlier meeting, catching 6 passes for 106 yards. And Kansas City allowed 9 touchdowns to tight ends during the season, only slightly fewer than they allowed to wide receivers (15). If we're looking to slot some receiver No. 2 in touchdown potential behind Mike Evans, Gronkowski is definitely a strong possibility.

But we've poked around at the idea of Brady leaning on his old friend in key moments for each of these previous three playoff games, and Gronkowski has caught 0, 1 and 1 pass. Instead it's been Cameron Brate as the key receiver at the position all postseason. He has 11 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown in those contests. Gronkowski is the three-time Super Bowl champ who will be a unanimous Hall of Fame selection when he finally hangs them up, but it looks irresponsible to rank him higher than Brate at this point. Brate also caught 4 passes, albeit for just 34 yards, in the earlier meeting. If you're going to use a Tampa tight end in this game, Brate looks a little more likely to catch 3-4 passes.

KICKER

Ryan Succop has been very good, especially lately. He's missed just one field goal since Week 4; he's 31 of 32 in that span. That includes 8 for 8 in the postseason, with a clutch 46-yarder in the final minutes at Green Bay. He's missed 5 extra points in those contests, which is a little odd, but has been pretty reliable on field goals. He had just 6 points (3 extra points and a field goal) in the earlier meeting, though, and that's tended to be the weekly story against Kansas City (whose high-scoring offense tends to require touchdowns rather than field goals). Kansas City allowed only 18 field goals all season, 4th-fewest. Things didn't turn out that way against Buffalo (Tyler Bass kicked 4), but given how poorly Buffalo's conservativism worked out -- opting for long field goals over attempting fourth-down conversions -- we're not expecting Tampa Bay to go that route.

DEFENSE

Kansas City left tackle Eric Fisher suffered an Achilles injury last week. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) isn't expected to play, either. And Patrick Mahomes has a turf-toe injury that could limit his mobility. Tampa Bay had 48 sacks during the season, and got to Aaron Rodgers 5 times last week. If the Bucs spring the upset, it seems very likely this pass rush will be the reason why.

But getting 2-3 sacks is one thing, and in other areas Tampa Bay doesn't look good. Patrick Mahomes threw only 6 interceptions in his 17 games this year; Tom Brady threw 15 in 19 contests. The Bucs had 15 interceptions during the season, but Kansas City had 16 and has a better matchup. The Bucs scored only 1 defensive touchdown, while Kansas City allowed just 1, and the Bucs don't have good return teams (highlighted by Jaydon Mickens taking a knee at 2:02 on a late return against Green Bay, essentially giving the Packers an additional timeout, which could have been costly).

The Bucs ranked 8th in fumble recoveries (10), but Kansas City lost an average 9. One of those was by Mahomes in the earlier meeting; Tampa Bay sacked him twice that day, with no interceptions. We're giving Tampa Bay the pass rush advantage, with the potential for a big game if journeyman Mike Remmers really struggles replacing Fisher. But every other area seems to favor Kansas City.

Next: Super Bowl Rankings.

--Andy Richardson