The Jaguars released Tyler Eifert yesterday. The 30-year-old will likely catch on with some other team, playing as part of a tandem (to keep him healthy) and having the occasional game with 3 receptions for 30 yards, with a touchdown once every 5 or 6 games. Personally I'm more interested in who's left behind.

Back in 2019 the Jaguars used a third-round pick on Josh Oliver. As a senior at San Jose State, Oliver caught 56 passes for 709 yards and 4 touchdowns. He spent most of his rookie season on injured reserve, then all of last year after breaking his foot. So yes: he's done virtually nothing his first two seasons.

But Jacksonville's tight end room is extra thin with Eifert gone. Next-best option a year ago was James O'Shaughnessy, a 29-year-old blocker who's averaged slightly over a catch per game in his career. The other tight ends currently on the roster combined to catch 4 more balls than Oliver did last season. So the opportunity is there.

For a sense of whether I should still be hanging onto Oliver in a dynasty league, I took a look at all tight ends drafted in the first three rounds this century who failed to make an impact in their first two seasons. (I set the bar at 300 receiving yards.) There were 37 such players, including two other 2019 guys -- Jace Sternberger in Green Bay (who was pushed aside by Robert Tonyan), and Kahale Warring in Houston. The odds of a third-year breakout for any of the three, based on the past 20 years, isn't great.

Seven of the previous 34, so about a fifth, put up that elusive 300-receiving yard season in Year 3. Best of those was Kellen Winslow Jr. (in the news recently for a non-football reason). Three others have had some success, with Jonnu Smith the most notable recent player. Smith looks like the most Oliver-like player -- it's possible.

But the vast majority of those players didn't do anything in Year 3, either, as the table (which shows year 1 and 2 receiving yards and then catches, yards and touchdowns in year 3) shows. Table is shorted by third-year yardage.

DraftRdPlayerYr 1Yr 2NoYdsTD
20041Kellen Winslow, Clev.500898753
20143C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou.28167545594
20062Anthony Fasano, Dall.126143344547
20173Jonnu Smith, Tenn.157258354393
20153Tyler Kroft, Cin.12992424047
20021Jerramy Stevens, Sea.25272313493
20132Vance McDonald, S.F.11930303263
20163Nick Vannett, Sea.32124292693
20082Martellus Bennett, Dall.283159332600
20023Chris Baker, NYJ14137181824
20003Erron Kinney, Tenn.197263131730
20013Shad Meier, Tenn.3117131590
20153Jeff Heuerman, Den.014191422
20042Kris Wilson, K.C.033151321
20062Joe Klopfenstein, St.L.22637111230
20083Craig Stevens, Tenn.90111222
20003Dustin Lyman, Chi.40141212
20093Travis Beckum, NYG551165931
20033Visante Shiancoe, NYG56258910
20152Maxx Williams, Balt.268015861
20172Adam Shaheen, Chi.127489740
20043Ben Hartsock, Ind.3386680
20132Gavin Escobar, Dall.1341058641
20032Teyo Johnson, Oak.1281313290
20073Matt Spaeth, Pitt.341365251
20053Kevin Everett, Buff.01130
20033Mike Seidman, Car.35123000
20083Brad Cottam, K.C.63120000
20142Troy Niklas, Ariz.3833100
20093Chase Coffman, Cin.030000
20092Richard Quinn, Den.09000
20032Bennie Joppru, Hou.00000
20013Sean Brewer, Cin.00000
20123Michael Egnew, Mia.069000
20193Jace Sternberger, G.B.0114???
20193Kahale Warring, Hou.035???
20193Josh Oliver, Jac.150???

Martellus Bennett, note, didn't do much in any of his first three seasons in the league. First four, actually, stuck behind Jason Witten in Dallas. He then proceeded to catch 50-plus passes five years in a row with the Giants and Bears, including a 90-catch Pro Bowl season in Chicago. But he's definitely the exception.

If Oliver (or Sternberger or Warring) amounts to anything, he'll be beating the odds.

--Andy Richardson