How do we measure a player’s overall value? If we look at his production relative to others at his own position, Travis Kelce looks like one of the safer overall selections early in drafts.
With Kelce, after all, he’s not only super productive, he’s also playing at a position where there aren’t many premium producers. Barring injury, Kelce will be miles better than most of the other starting tight ends in your league.
It can be argued and debated in various ways, but consider the chart below. In this one, you’re seeing the overall production for each player, and then you’re seeing how that compares to the average of the top 12 at that position in the given season. (There are 12 franchises in a typical league, so the top 12 can generally be considered “starters”.)
At tight end, the top 12 last year averaged 183.3 PPR points. Kelce scored 314.8, so he was over 131 points better than the average of the 12 other starting tight ends in the 2020 season.
In the last 10 years, only two players have created more statistical spread between themselves and the other top players at their positions – 2019 Christian McCaffrey and 2016 David Johnson, who crushed the other running backs in those seasons.
Considering the position he plays, Kelce’s 2020 season was more significant – more valuable – than Peyton Manning’s 55-touchdown season in 2013.
And this isn’t a one-time deal. Kelce in each of the last four years has graded out as one of the top 50 players of the decade.
There’s something to be said for waiting on tight ends. In typical fantasy leagues, teams start only one, creating good potential to pick up a lesser starter in the later rounds (or even off the waiver wire). But the numbers suggest Kelce fairly should be one of the first 10 players chosen in drafts.
| TOP 50 (RELATIVE) PLAYERS, last 10 years | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pos | Player | Points | Top 12 | Dif |
| 2019 | RB | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 471.2 | 293.3 | 177.9 |
| 2016 | RB | David Johnson, Ariz. | 413.8 | 278.5 | 135.3 |
| 2020 | TE | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 314.8 | 183.3 | 131.5 |
| 2013 | QB | Peyton Manning, Den. | 498.8 | 367.3 | 131.4 |
| 2011 | TE | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 330.9 | 209.1 | 121.8 |
| 2020 | RB | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 377.8 | 266.4 | 111.4 |
| 2017 | RB | Todd Gurley, LAR | 387.3 | 276.0 | 111.3 |
| 2018 | TE | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 296.6 | 188.3 | 108.3 |
| 2011 | RB | Ray Rice, Balt. | 376.9 | 268.8 | 108.1 |
| 2019 | WR | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 374.6 | 268.4 | 106.2 |
| 2013 | RB | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 382.0 | 277.2 | 104.8 |
| 2018 | QB | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 496.1 | 391.4 | 104.7 |
| 2013 | TE | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 303.5 | 201.0 | 102.5 |
| 2020 | TE | Darren Waller, L.V. | 282.6 | 183.3 | 99.3 |
| 2014 | RB | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 370.5 | 275.6 | 94.9 |
| 2011 | QB | Drew Brees, N.O. | 478.4 | 383.7 | 94.7 |
| 2018 | TE | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 280.3 | 188.3 | 92.0 |
| 2019 | QB | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 463.0 | 373.1 | 89.8 |
| 2014 | WR | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 391.1 | 302.5 | 88.6 |
| 2011 | TE | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 296.0 | 209.1 | 86.9 |
| 2015 | RB | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 320.4 | 233.8 | 86.6 |
| 2014 | RB | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 361.1 | 275.6 | 85.5 |
| 2018 | RB | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 388.0 | 302.8 | 85.2 |
| 2011 | WR | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 361.2 | 276.9 | 84.3 |
| 2015 | WR | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 392.2 | 308.9 | 83.3 |
| 2018 | RB | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 385.8 | 302.8 | 83.0 |
| 2012 | RB | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 351.4 | 268.6 | 82.8 |
| 2020 | RB | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 343.8 | 266.4 | 77.4 |
| 2020 | WR | Davante Adams, G.B. | 360.4 | 285.1 | 75.3 |
| 2016 | QB | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 446.3 | 371.2 | 75.2 |
| 2014 | RB | Matt Forte, Chi. | 350.6 | 275.6 | 75.0 |
| 2011 | QB | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 455.9 | 383.7 | 72.1 |
| 2018 | RB | Todd Gurley, LAR | 374.1 | 302.8 | 71.3 |
| 2015 | QB | Cam Newton, Car. | 455.5 | 384.2 | 71.3 |
| 2020 | RB | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 337.1 | 266.4 | 70.7 |
| 2019 | TE | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 256.3 | 185.8 | 70.6 |
| 2018 | TE | George Kittle, S.F. | 258.7 | 188.3 | 70.4 |
| 2013 | QB | Drew Brees, N.O. | 437.3 | 367.3 | 70.0 |
| 2014 | TE | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 266.4 | 196.6 | 69.8 |
| 2017 | RB | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 345.6 | 276.0 | 69.6 |
| 2014 | QB | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 443.4 | 375.0 | 68.4 |
| 2015 | WR | Julio Jones, Atl. | 377.1 | 308.9 | 68.2 |
| 2017 | QB | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 415.8 | 347.7 | 68.1 |
| 2011 | QB | Cam Newton, Car. | 448.9 | 383.7 | 65.1 |
| 2013 | RB | Matt Forte, Chi. | 341.3 | 277.2 | 64.1 |
| 2011 | QB | Tom Brady, N.E. | 446.7 | 383.7 | 62.9 |
| 2017 | TE | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 235.5 | 173.8 | 61.7 |
| 2011 | RB | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 330.4 | 268.8 | 61.6 |
| 2011 | WR | Wes Welker, N.E. | 335.9 | 276.9 | 59.0 |
| 2012 | QB | Drew Brees, N.O. | 437.4 | 378.9 | 58.5 |
—Ian Allan
6 Reader Comments:
Moishe Steigmann
With QBs, the upper-level talent is so deep that the gap between 1 and 12 should be far less than that of TEs. And it's a much deeper pool.
With RBs, you have the real risk of injury.
With WRs, there is so much talent available given the passing nature of the NFL that there will be strong players available later in the draft--and Kelce will almost assuredly outscore all but a handful anyway.
Given all those factors, shouldn't Kelce be in play for #1 overall?
Ian Allan
Ben Hogevoll
Paul Desimone
But this run Kelsey is on has distinguished him as the very best of his time - if not ever.
There have been a few similarly dominant tight ends. Tony Gonzalez dominated for a number of years. Gronkowski put together his own uninterrupted string, but for one huge season by Jimmy Graham. But like those other two guys, there is Kelsey, and then there's everybody else. It's just not close.
Ben Hogevoll
Paul Deutsch