A trio of kickers banged in a bunch of long field goals last year. But is that an indication those kickers are more likely to also excel in that area in the upcoming season? Or is it more likely that such production is heavily influenced by luck/chance?
Specifically here, we talk about Brandon McManus (pictured), Jason Sanders and Younghoe Koo. Only seven times in the last 10 years has a player kicked at least 8 field goals from 50-plus, and three of those seasons occurred last year. (They’re in bold in the table below.)
But the repeat track record for such kickers hasn’t been awesome. Most recently, Joey Slye kicked 8 such field goals in 2019; he dipped to only 1 of 6 on long-range field goals last year.
On these kind of situations, I like to take a step back and look at the larger picture. As we look at more players, we get a better idea of what are fair expectations. And it turns out that 49 times previously in the last 10 years, a kicker converted at least 5 field goals from 50-plus yards. Looking at those guys could give us some context.
Of those previous kickers, 18 (just over a third) scored at least 4 long-field field goals the next year. But even more (19) finished with just 0-2 field goals from 50-plus in the next year. (The remaining 11 kickers scored 3 long field goals, which is an average number.)
Of these 49 kickers, only 11 scored at least 5 long-range field goal again in their follow-up season.
These current kickers are talented guys. (Particularly Sanders and Koo, who combined missed only one 50-yard field goal last year.) But none of them look like safe choices to rank among the top-5 long-range kickers in 2021.
| LONG-RANGE FIELD GOALS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 50+ | Next Yr | |
| 2012 | 10-10 | 0-0 | Blair Walsh |
| 2016 | 10-10 | 5-7 | Justin Tucker |
| 2020 | 10-15 | ?-? | Brandon McManus |
| 2017 | 8-9 | 4-5 | Matt Bryant |
| 2019 | 8-11 | 1-6 | Joey Slye |
| 2020 | 8-9 | ?-? | Jason Sanders |
| 2020 | 8-8 | ?-? | Younghoe Koo |
| 2011 | 7-10 | 4-7 | Sebastian Janikowski |
| 2011 | 7-9 | 1-3 | David Akers |
| 2011 | 7-8 | 0-3 | Phil Dawson |
| 2012 | 7-7 | 7-8 | Phil Dawson |
| 2012 | 7-13 | 0-0 | Greg Zuerlein |
| 2014 | 7-10 | 0-0 | Matt Bryant |
| 2015 | 7-9 | 0-0 | Robbie Gould |
| 2016 | 7-7 | 7-11 | Matt Prater |
| 2016 | 7-9 | 5-6 | Adam Vinatieri |
| 2016 | 7-12 | 0-3 | Jason Myers |
| 2017 | 7-9 | 4-7 | Stephen Hauschka |
| 2017 | 7-11 | 3-5 | Matt Prater |
| 2019 | 7-8 | 6-10 | Matt Prater |
| 2020 | 7-8 | ?-? | Stephen Gostkowski |
| 2011 | 6-6 | 3-4 | Robbie Gould |
| 2011 | 6-7 | 2-3 | Rob Bironas |
| 2012 | 6-9 | 7-10 | Sebastian Janikowski |
| 2012 | 6-9 | 2-3 | Connor Barth |
| 2013 | 6-7 | 4-4 | Justin Tucker |
| 2013 | 6-7 | 3-5 | Dan Bailey |
| 2013 | 6-7 | 3-4 | Matt Prater |
| 2013 | 6-6 | 1-2 | Graham Gano |
| 2014 | 6-9 | 3-3 | Phil Dawson |
| 2014 | 6-8 | 3-5 | Dan Carpenter |
| 2015 | 6-8 | 1-2 | Blair Walsh |
| 2015 | 6-6 | 1-1 | Steven Hauschka |
| 2016 | 6-8 | 8-9 | Matt Bryant |
| 2017 | 6-7 | 4-6 | Greg Zuerlein |
| 2017 | 6-9 | 0-1 | Kai Forbath |
| 2018 | 6-7 | 4-8 | Brett Maher |
| 2018 | 6-7 | 2-4 | Jason Myers |
| 2020 | 6-10 | ?-? | Matt Prater |
| 2011 | 5-7 | 3-4 | Jason Hanson |
| 2013 | 5-7 | 2-9 | Mason Crosby |
| 2014 | 5-9 | 6-8 | Blair Walsh |
| 2014 | 5-7 | 5-6 | Dan Bailey |
| 2014 | 5-7 | 3-9 | Greg Zuerlein |
| 2015 | 5-6 | 7-7 | Matt Prater |
| 2015 | 5-7 | 3-6 | Brandon McManus |
| 2015 | 5-6 | 3-6 | Dan Bailey |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 5-7 | Justin Tucker |
| 2017 | 5-6 | 4-6 | Adam Vinatieri |
| 2017 | 5-6 | 2-5 | Jake Elliott |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 1-1 | Justin Tucker |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 1-2 | Mason Crosby |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 3-9 | Greg Zuerlein |
| 2020 | 5-6 | ?-? | Graham Gano |
—Ian Allan