Arthur Smith is taking over in Atlanta, and I think that will make for one of the league’s most dramatically altered offenses. The Falcons have heavily emphasized the pass in recent years, but under Smith, it should become more of a run-oriented system.
That’s the kind of offense Smith put together in Tennessee (where he was the coordinator), with a power running game. He doesn’t have a Derrick Henry now, but I think there will be much more of an effort to pound away with the run. (In most games, anyway; they’re in the same division with the Bucs and Saints, who’ve both had top-5 run defenses in recent years – tough to run against those teams.)
The switches in scheme and personnel should result in a wildly different offense. That’s apparent when comparing Atlanta’s recent production against what Smith’s offense was doing in Tennessee.
The Falcons over the last two years have averaged over 27 pass completions per game – 2 more than any other team. The Titans in the same two years have averaged only 19 completions per game, more than only the run-centric Ravens.
I don’t think anybody should be drafting Matt Ryan with the expectation he’ll be passing for 280-plus passing yards per game. Different team now.
| COMPLETIONS PER GAME (last 2 yrs) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Avg |
| Atlanta | 27.1 |
| LA Chargers | 25.2 |
| Dallas | 25.0 |
| Kansas City | 24.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.8 |
| LA Rams | 24.7 |
| New Orleans | 24.6 |
| Chicago | 24.2 |
| Carolina | 23.6 |
| Jacksonville | 23.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.2 |
| Arizona | 23.2 |
| Miami | 23.2 |
| Houston | 23.1 |
| Las Vegas | 23.0 |
| Seattle | 22.8 |
| Green Bay | 22.8 |
| Cincinnati | 22.8 |
| Philadelphia | 22.7 |
| Detroit | 22.4 |
| Buffalo | 22.2 |
| San Francisco | 21.9 |
| NY Giants | 21.8 |
| Washington | 21.5 |
| Indianapolis | 21.2 |
| Minnesota | 20.9 |
| New England | 20.7 |
| Cleveland | 19.8 |
| Denver | 19.7 |
| NY Jets | 19.2 |
| Tennessee | 19.2 |
| Baltimore | 17.1 |
—Ian Allan