The Patriots agreed to contracts with a pair of wide receivers on the opening day of free agency, and they’re getting different guys: One who can get deep, and another who does his best work in short-range situations.
They’re paying more for Nelson Agholor. He agreed to a two-year deal worth about $11-13 million annually – similar in value to the contracts they gave the two tight ends. That’s surprising in that Agholor is only a year removed from being plagued by drops and not wanted back in Philadelphia.
But the Raiders figured out how to more effectively use Agholor. The Eagles tried to use Agholor as a slot-type receiver, catching mostly short passes, and he wasn’t great in that role. In Las Vegas, they did a better job of using Agholor’s speed to get him downfield. He averaged 18.7 yards per catch, regularly hitting on long plays.
Agholor caught 48 passes, and over 10 percent of his receptions went for over 40 yards. That was the highest big-play rate in the league. Among wide receivers with at least 40 receptions, only a dozen others had 40-yard gains on over 5 percent of their catches.
At least for now, the Patriots have Cam Newton at quarterback. He’s never been known for being an effective long-ball thrower. But you can see how Agholor should have a role – he should be their most heavily used deep threat.
| RECEIVERS WITH 40-YARD CATCHES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yards | Avg | TD | 40+ | Pct |
| Nelson Agholor, LVR | 48 | 896 | 18.7 | 8 | 5 | 10.4% |
| DJ Moore, CAR | 66 | 1,193 | 18.1 | 4 | 6 | 9.1% |
| Tim Patrick, DEN | 51 | 742 | 14.5 | 6 | 4 | 7.8% |
| Jerry Jeudy, DEN | 52 | 856 | 16.5 | 3 | 4 | 7.7% |
| Will Fuller, HOU | 53 | 879 | 16.6 | 8 | 4 | 7.5% |
| A.J. Brown, TEN | 70 | 1,075 | 15.4 | 11 | 5 | 7.1% |
| Marquise Brown, BAL | 58 | 769 | 13.3 | 8 | 4 | 6.9% |
| Christian Kirk, ARI | 48 | 621 | 12.9 | 6 | 3 | 6.3% |
| Chris Godwin, TAM | 65 | 840 | 12.9 | 7 | 4 | 6.2% |
| DK Metcalf, SEA | 83 | 1,303 | 15.7 | 10 | 5 | 6.0% |
| Tyreek Hill, KAN | 87 | 1,276 | 14.7 | 15 | 5 | 5.7% |
| T.Y. Hilton, IND | 56 | 762 | 13.6 | 5 | 3 | 5.4% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, ARI | 115 | 1,407 | 12.2 | 6 | 6 | 5.2% |
| Michael Gallup, DAL | 59 | 843 | 14.3 | 5 | 3 | 5.1% |
| Michael Pittman, IND | 40 | 503 | 12.6 | 1 | 2 | 5.0% |
The Patriots aren’t paying as much for Kendrick Bourne. He signed a deal that averaged about $7.5 million per year. He looks like more of a backup and contributor rather than a featured piece of the offense. I’m not sure that he’s any better than some of the receivers they already have (Jakobi Meyers was sneaky good last year).
I would think that Bourne would be more of a rotational player, but note that in San Francisco, they were always able to use Bourne around the goal line with some success, drawing up plays for him when they were close to the end zone. He’s been effective in that part of the field.
Over the last three years, 32 wide receivers have seen at least 18 targets inside the 10 (6 per year). Of that group, only three receivers have caught a higher percentage of balls than Bourne, and they’re all well-regarded start receivers – Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett and Adam Thielen. (Bourne in that part of the field has caught 14 of 19 passes, with 9 TDs and a pair of 2-point conversions.
I’m not suggesting anybody should be drafting Bourne. I’m pretty sure that will be a bottom-5 passing offense, and they’ll be using plenty of guys (including those two tight ends). But Bourne should contribute a few catches and short-range touchdowns.
| WIDE RECEIVERS INSIDE THE 10 (last 3 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Com | Pct | TD | 2Pt |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 34 | 29 | 85% | 21 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 20 | 17 | 85% | 11 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen, Min. | 27 | 20 | 74% | 16 | 2 |
| Kendrick Bourne, S.F. | 19 | 14 | 74% | 9 | 2 |
| Cole Beasley, Dal.-Buf. | 18 | 13 | 72% | 6 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders, 3 tms | 21 | 15 | 71% | 8 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 24 | 16 | 67% | 9 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 23 | 15 | 65% | 10 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 20 | 13 | 65% | 11 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard, NYG | 20 | 13 | 65% | 8 | 3 |
| Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 20 | 13 | 65% | 5 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs, Min.-Buf. | 19 | 12 | 63% | 8 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 23 | 14 | 61% | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 30 | 18 | 60% | 13 | 2 |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 30 | 18 | 60% | 10 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 24 | 14 | 58% | 8 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor, Phi.-L.V. | 19 | 11 | 58% | 5 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks, LAR-Hou. | 19 | 11 | 58% | 5 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry, Cle. | 27 | 15 | 56% | 8 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones, Det. | 20 | 11 | 55% | 10 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 22 | 12 | 55% | 10 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.-Az. | 32 | 17 | 53% | 9 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman, N.E. | 23 | 12 | 52% | 6 | 1 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 34 | 17 | 50% | 16 | 1 |
| Chris Conley, K.C.-Jac. | 18 | 9 | 50% | 6 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay, Det. | 26 | 13 | 50% | 9 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook, Jac. | 19 | 9 | 47% | 2 | 2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 19 | 8 | 42% | 5 | 1 |
| Mike Williams, LAC | 24 | 10 | 42% | 8 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson, Chi. | 26 | 10 | 38% | 8 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper, Oak.-Dal. | 21 | 8 | 38% | 6 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham, NYG-Cle. | 19 | 7 | 37% | 6 | 0 |
—Ian Allan