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Factoid

Andy Dalton

Bears hoping fourth time's a charm at quarterback

I was surprised when the Bears signed Andy Dalton to a one-year contract. He looks like a decent placeholder quarterback, but not enough of an upgrade for a team that’s been dying at the position for years.

GM Ryan Pace has made three previous quarterbacking decisions, and he’s missed badly on all of them. He signed Mike Glennon to a big contract. He traded up to select Mitchell Trubisky. And he traded for Nick Foles and his bloated contract.

Dalton might still be one of the league’s 40 best quarterbacks. Maybe. He’s at least been around the block, and he helped the Bengals make the playoffs five times (all in his first five seasons).

But Dalton hasn’t made much success recently. He’s 11-22 as a starter over the last three years, with 33 interceptions in those 33 games. He hasn’t ranked higher than 15th in per-game fantasy production (among QBs) since 2015.

Over the past four years, 29 quarterbacks have started at least half the time, and Dalton has posted better per-game numbers than only six of those guys. Of those six guys he’s outperformed, I don’t think any of them will be starting on opening day.

The chart below uses standard fantasy scoring. If a player isn’t going to be a starter on opening day (in my opinion) I’ve got him tagged with a black dot.

QUARTERBACKS PER START (last 4 yrs)
PlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPt/G
Patrick Mahomes463082.4818.1328.1
Lamar Jackson371891.8175.4927.2
Deshaun Watson532721.9431.3426.7
Kyler Murray322401.4443.4725.0
Josh Allen432241.5636.6024.8
Russell Wilson642462.1928.1324.8
? Jameis Winston382961.7917.0824.4
Dak Prescott532641.5719.3623.7
Aaron Rodgers552622.0913.1123.7
Ben Roethlisberger482821.983.0623.1
Carson Wentz522511.8718.1222.9
Ryan Tannehill372271.9516.3222.9
Matt Ryan632871.708.1122.7
Tom Brady642751.952.1322.6
Kirk Cousins632581.878.1122.2
? Cam Newton472111.1539.4922.2
• Drew Brees542641.961.1722.1
Jared Goff622761.655.1521.8
Matthew Stafford562641.706.0020.8
• Philip Rivers642751.670.0020.7
Baker Mayfield452431.6710.0920.4
Derek Carr632491.415.1019.3
Andy Dalton492331.558.0819.2
• Mitchell Trubisky502121.2821.1619.1
• Eli Manning352521.312.0618.5
• Case Keenum382331.296.0818.0
• Sam Darnold382131.1811.1317.5
• Marcus Mariota34201.9122.2117.1
• Joe Flacco372241.144.0316.4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index