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Factoid

Colts Defense

Can TD-happy group keep it going?

The Indianapolis Colts had the No. 1 fantasy defense a year ago, in scoring systems that gave 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for all touchdowns, anyway. They did so despite being only slightly above-average in sacks (40) and 5th in takeaways (25). Their ability to turn takeaways into touchdowns was key.

Led by opportunistic Darius Leonard (pictured), Indianapolis led the NFL with 6 defensive and special teams touchdowns last year: 4 on interceptions, 1 on a kick return, and one on a blocked kick. That was 2 more than any other team. There's considerable chance involved in such plays, though, and defensive touchdowns have generally been declining around the league. A decade ago the NFL average was around 3.5; it's been at 2.5 over the past three years. What are the odds of the Colts putting up strong numbers in this area again?

I took a look at the best defenses in this area over the past decade (and I'm including special teams touchdowns, as well). There have been 80 teams to score at least 5 TDs on defensive and special teams touchdowns in the last 10 years. How did they fare one year later?

Exactly a quarter (20) of those 80 defenses scored at least 5 touchdowns in the next season. That includes three teams from the last three years. Statistically a 25 percent chance of the Colts scoring 5 defensive and special teams touchdowns again.

But nearly half of the 80 (37) scored at least 4 touchdowns a year later. A decline from their 5-TD seasons, but still an above-average figure. Two of 2019's 5-TD defenses, the Patriots and Ravens, were in that group, scoring 4 TDs in 2020. About two-thirds (52) scored 3-plus the next season.

I don't expect the Colts to again score 6 defensive and special teams score or be 2021's top fantasy defense, but there seems to be about an even chance that they're again one of the best teams in this regard. I suspect they'll be in my top 10 defenses for 2021.

Top TD-scoring defenses over the past decade are shown below, sorted by the number of touchdowns they scored one year later.

D/STS SCORING 5 TDS, 2010-2020
YearTeamTDsNext
2011Chicago910
2015Kansas City68
2011Denver58
2015Minnesota67
2014Philadelphia117
2014Arizona57
2012Chicago107
2018NY Jets56
2017Chicago56
2014Minnesota56
2012LA Rams56
2011Seattle56
2017LA Rams65
2016Philadelphia55
2015Philadelphia75
2013LA Rams65
2013Arizona55
2012Denver85
2011Baltimore55
2010Seattle65
2019New England74
2019Baltimore64
2018Kansas City54
2018LA Rams54
2017Baltimore74
2016Kansas City84
2016LA Chargers54
2015Denver64
2015NY Giants64
2014LA Rams54
2012Seattle64
2012Minnesota54
2011Green Bay74
2011Buffalo74
2010Arizona104
2010New England94
2010NY Jets54
2017Jacksonville83
2015Arizona73
2014Houston63
2014Pittsburgh63
2013Kansas City113
2013Dallas63
2013Denver53
2013Cleveland53
2013San Francisco53
2012Tennessee93
2012New England73
2012Baltimore53
2010Indianapolis53
2010San Francisco53
2010Atlanta53
2018Chicago62
2018Miami52
2017Detroit72
2017Seattle52
2016Atlanta52
2015Indianapolis52
2014Green Bay62
2014New England52
2013Chicago72
2012Indianapolis62
2012Houston52
2012NY Jets52
2010Las Vegas72
2019NY Jets61
2019Tampa Bay61
2019San Francisco51
2018Cincinnati51
2017New Orleans51
2016Minnesota71
2015Seattle51
2015Washington51
2013Cincinnati71
2012LA Chargers91
2010Dallas71
2017Philadelphia50
2013Washington50
2012New Orleans50
2011Detroit70
2020Indianapolis6??

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