It's expected that as many as five quarterbacks will be selected in the top 10 picks of next month's draft -- factoring in potential trades, there might be five passers in the top 5 or 7 picks. That would be unprecedented. Only once since the merger have even four quarterbacks been selected that early.
Six times (including 2020), there have been at least three quarterbacks selected in the top 10 picks, so that's a little more common. You'd like to think that most of those players have hit, but unfortunately that's not the case.
Table below shows the six previous occasions that 3-plus quarterbacks have been drafted that early, sorted by year. Last column shows the best career rank (fantasy) of each player.
Only once (2012) have all of the drafted quarterbacks had a top-10 fantasy season at some point in their career. (The 1971 group came pretty close.) Those are the only two years that more than one did it, although reasonable to guess that last year's trio of Burrow, Tagovailoa and Herbert will at some point produce a second top-10 season. Players with at least one top-10 fantasy season at some point are in bold.
Too soon to call on last year's class, but three of the previous four groups produced at least one bust (so far; maybe Josh Rosen will resurrect his career).
| THREE-PLUS QBS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | School | Best FF |
| 2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | Louisiana State | 25th |
| 2020 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | Alabama | 34th |
| 2020 | 6 | Justin Herbert, LAC | Oregon | 9th |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | Oklahoma | 16th |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | Southern California | 24th |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen, Buff. | Wyoming | 1st |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | UCLA | 32nd |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | Stanford | 1st |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | Baylor | 10th |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | Texas A&M | 8th |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | Auburn | 1st |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | Washington | 29th |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | Missouri | 27th |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch, Clev. | Kentucky | 17th |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | Syracuse | 3rd |
| 1999 | 3 | Akili Smith, Cin. | Oregon | 38th |
| 1971 | 1 | Jim Plunkett, N.E. | Stanford | 3rd |
| 1971 | 2 | Archie Manning, N.O. | Mississippi | 2nd |
| 1971 | 3 | Dan Pastorini, Hou. | Santa Clara | 11th |
Bottom line: a top-heavy quarterback class doesn't ensure that all of those players will work out. Far more likely one or two of them flop. Even with that 2012 class, both Luck (retirement) and Griffin (injuries) burned out quickly. Who'd have figured that it'd be Ryan Tannehill still going strong?
--Andy Richardson