Three days after a pair of trades involving first-round picks, it’s looking increasingly likely that San Francisco will select Mac Jones. He put up huge numbers at Alabama, and he’s Kyle Shanahan’s kind of quarterback.

It’s considered a lock that Jacksonville will select Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall, and almost as certain the Jets will choose Zach Wilson. Wilson had a great Pro Day last week, displaying unusual arm talent.

The 49ers wouldn’t have traded up to No. 3 unless there was a quarterback they really liked, and it looks like Jones will be that guy. In Shanahan’s offense, he’s looking for a smart quarterback who can quickly make decisions, and Jones seems to be that guy. Jones put up recording-setting numbers at Alabama last year, putting up better stats than even what Joe Burrow did the previous season.

Chris Simms is a friend of Shanahan’s. They played together at Texas and also worked together at Tampa Bay. Simms says he’s of the opinion that Shanahan will definitely select Jones. And that’s the consensus of other NFL people around the league.

Jones isn’t nearly as mobile as some of the other quarterbacking prospects (most notably Justin Fields and Trey Lance) but Shanahan has had success with quick-processing pocket passers in the past. He went to a Super Bowl with Matt Ryan, and Matt Schaub had a pair of seasons with top-7 numbers (that’s per-game production, and using standard scoring). Shanahan has long like Kirk Cousins; they drafted him in Washington despite earlier in the same draft trading up for Robert Griffin.

If Jones winds up in San Francisco, he would seemingly have a good chance of finish with the best rookie numbers of all of these quarterbacks being selected in the first round – he would have a better supporting cast than any of the other rookie quarterbacks.

Shanahan first became an NFL coordinator in 2008 in Houston. His primary starters are listed in the first table. For guys starting fewer than eight games, they’re listed in the second table. (The final column – the rank – shows where the quarterback ranked on a per-game basis using standard scoring.)

KYLE SHANAHAN'S STARTING QUARTERBACKS
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPt/GRk
2016Matt Ryan, Atl.163092.387.0025.93
2012Robert Griffin, Was.152131.3354.4724.25
2009Matt Schaub, Hou.162981.814.0022.64
2013Robert Griffin, Was.132461.2338.0021.311
2008Matt Schaub, Hou.112771.366.1821.27
2018Nick Mullens, S.F.82851.63-2.0020.820
2019Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.162491.694.0620.221
2015Matt Ryan, Atl.162871.314.0020.123
2020Nick Mullens, S.F.82661.251.0018.715
2010Donovan McNabb, Was.132601.0812.0018.520
2011Rex Grossman, Was.132421.231.0817.619
2014Brian Hoyer, Clev.13246.852.0015.829
OTHER SHANAHAN STARTERS (less than half season)
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPt/G
2012Kirk Cousins, Was.13292.0022.0026.7
2010Rex Grossman, Was.32802.332.0024.9
2017Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.53081.201.2021.6
2018C.J. Beathard, S.F.52501.6014.2021.5
2020C.J. Beathard, S.F.22282.0014.0020.8
2018Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.32391.6711.0020.4
2017C.J. Beathard, S.F.5237.6024.6020.3
2011John Beck, Was.3247.6710.3318.7
2013Kirk Cousins, Was.32491.334.0018.2
2008Sage Rosenfels, Hou.5241.807.0016.0
2020Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.61831.174.0014.2
2017Brian Hoyer, S.F.6208.671.1714.2
2014Connor Shaw, Clev.1177.009.009.8
2014Johnny Manziel, Clev.256.008.003.6

—Ian Allan