The NFL combine isn't being held this year, so the only look that teams are getting at players is individual pro days. North Carolina's was yesterday, and there should be at least a couple of relevant fantasy players drafted from there. Most notably, Javonte Williams (pictured) and Michael Carter, two of college football's top rushers a year ago.
Williams is a bigger back, coming in at 5-foot-10 and 212 pounds yesterday. Carter is only 5-foot-8 and 201 (even that weight is probably couple of pounds heavier than he played at a year ago). Williams rushed for 1,140 yards and 19 TDs last year, while Carter rushed for 1,245 and 9. Williams is the more highly regarded prospect, probably due to the size differential. Both guys caught 25 passes; neither really a preferred option in that area.
The first reported 40 time I saw for Williams yesterday was a 4.58, but it was later reported as 4.55. Carter ran a 4.50. Not exactly thunder and lightning, but roughly that type of backfield -- one with a little more pop between the tackles, one a little faster. It's possible both will be Day 2 (so, Rounds 2-3) picks, though Carter might be a fourth-rounder. Williams might be the 3rd running back selected in rookie drafts, behind Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, though landing spot will be a factor.
Those 40-yard-dash times can impact draft position (my first thought yesterday was that Williams cost himself some money), but it's debatable whether they mean a lot when it comes to how NFL careers will turn out. Plenty of faster backs never amounted to much in the league, while plenty of guys who put up slower times went on to have solid careers.
Below are the last 10 years of running backs drafted in the first three rounds, sorted by 40 times. All are combine numbers, except for those with an asterisk by the time. Those backs didn't run at the combine, so the times are either from pro days, like yesterday, or estimated. Total yards and touchdowns in each player's rookie seasons are shown.
| DRAFTED RUNNING BACKS, ROUNDS 1-3 (2011-2020) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rd | Pk | Player | Tot | TD | Ht | Wt | 40 |
| 2014 | 3 | 97 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 63 | 0 | 5.08 | 173 | 4.26 |
| 2012 | 2 | 61 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 154 | 0 | 5.08 | 194 | 4.35 |
| 2013 | 3 | 96 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 317 | 5 | 5.10 | 227 | 4.37 |
| 2011 | 3 | 71 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 1080 | 2 | 6.00 | 219 | 4.37 |
| 2012 | 1 | 32 | David Wilson, NYG | 392 | 5 | 5.10 | 206 | 4.38 |
| 2020 | 2 | 41 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1468 | 12 | 5.10 | 226 | 4.39 |
| 2020 | 3 | 66 | Antonio Gibson, Wash. | 1042 | 11 | 6.00 | 228 | 4.39 |
| 2012 | 2 | 50 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 70 | 0 | 5.10 | 197 | 4.39 |
| 2020 | 3 | 80 | Lynn Bowden, L.V. | 243 | 0 | 5.11 | 204 | *4.40 |
| 2018 | 1 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 2028 | 15 | 6.00 | 233 | 4.40 |
| 2015 | 3 | 73 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 406 | 1 | 5.11 | 206 | *4.40 |
| 2020 | 3 | 93 | Darrynton Evans, Tenn. | 81 | 1 | 5.10 | 203 | 4.41 |
| 2014 | 3 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 673 | 0 | 5.09 | 209 | 4.41 |
| 2012 | 3 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. | 392 | 1 | 5.09 | 200 | 4.42 |
| 2020 | 2 | 55 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 925 | 9 | 5.09 | 209 | *4.45 |
| 2017 | 3 | 89 | D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | 410 | 2 | 6.00 | 233 | *4.45 |
| 2016 | 3 | 73 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 225 | 2 | 6.01 | 210 | 4.45 |
| 2012 | 3 | 84 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 579 | 1 | 6.00 | 218 | 4.45 |
| 2011 | 3 | 96 | Alex Green, G.B. | 17 | 0 | 6.02 | 220 | 4.45 |
| 2018 | 1 | 27 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 494 | 2 | 5.11 | 220 | 4.46 |
| 2012 | 1 | 31 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1926 | 12 | 5.09 | 223 | 4.46 |
| 2020 | 2 | 52 | Cam Akers, LAR | 748 | 3 | 5.10 | 217 | 4.47 |
| 2018 | 2 | 43 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 854 | 4 | 6.00 | 212 | *4.47 |
| 2016 | 1 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1994 | 16 | 6.00 | 225 | 4.47 |
| 2020 | 2 | 35 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 888 | 10 | 5.08 | 212 | 4.48 |
| 2017 | 1 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1086 | 7 | 5.11 | 202 | 4.48 |
| 2016 | 3 | 90 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 380 | 1 | 6.00 | 220 | 4.48 |
| 2014 | 3 | 69 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 375 | 1 | 6.00 | 214 | 4.48 |
| 2012 | 1 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 1317 | 12 | 5.09 | 228 | *4.48 |
| 2019 | 2 | 53 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 1327 | 6 | 5.11 | 211 | 4.49 |
| 2019 | 3 | 70 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 184 | 0 | 5.08 | 208 | 4.49 |
| 2018 | 2 | 59 | Derrius Guice, Wash. | 0 | 0 | 5.11 | 218 | 4.49 |
| 2017 | 2 | 41 | Dalvin Cook, Minn. | 444 | 2 | 5.11 | 213 | 4.49 |
| 2014 | 2 | 54 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | 702 | 2 | 5.09 | 209 | 4.49 |
| 2011 | 2 | 56 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 57 | 1 | 5.10 | 205 | 4.49 |
| 2017 | 2 | 48 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 913 | 4 | 6.10 | 226 | *4.50 |
| 2015 | 3 | 86 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 1038 | 13 | 6.01 | 224 | 4.50 |
| 2014 | 3 | 75 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 913 | 5 | 5.08 | 207 | 4.50 |
| 2020 | 3 | 76 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 143 | 1 | 5.10 | 214 | 4.51 |
| 2017 | 1 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1342 | 10 | 6.01 | 230 | 4.51 |
| 2018 | 2 | 35 | Nick Chubb, Clev. | 1145 | 10 | 5.10 | 225 | 4.52 |
| 2015 | 1 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1294 | 10 | 6.01 | 222 | *4.52 |
| 2015 | 1 | 15 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 833 | 0 | 6.01 | 215 | 4.52 |
| 2020 | 2 | 62 | A.J. Dillon, G.B. | 263 | 2 | 6.00 | 247 | 4.53 |
| 2013 | 2 | 37 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 1209 | 8 | 5.09 | 208 | 4.53 |
| 2018 | 1 | 31 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 981 | 6 | 5.11 | 214 | 4.54 |
| 2018 | 3 | 71 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 593 | 5 | 6.00 | 229 | 4.54 |
| 2016 | 2 | 45 | Derrick Henry, Tenn. | 627 | 5 | 6.02 | 247 | 4.54 |
| 2015 | 3 | 77 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | 913 | 2 | 5.09 | 207 | 4.54 |
| 2013 | 2 | 62 | Christine Michael, Sea. | 79 | 0 | 5.10 | 221 | 4.54 |
| 2015 | 3 | 94 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 150 | 2 | 6.00 | 221 | 4.55 |
| 2013 | 2 | 61 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1435 | 11 | 5.11 | 230 | 4.55 |
| 2017 | 3 | 67 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 1554 | 14 | 5.10 | 214 | 4.56 |
| 2014 | 3 | 94 | Terrance West, Clev. | 737 | 5 | 5.09 | 225 | 4.56 |
| 2011 | 2 | 57 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | 0 | 0 | 6.00 | 233 | 4.56 |
| 2019 | 3 | 87 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 12 | 0 | 5.10 | 216 | 4.57 |
| 2011 | 2 | 38 | Ryan Williams, Ariz. | 0 | 0 | 5.09 | 207 | 4.59 |
| 2020 | 1 | 32 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 1100 | 5 | 5.07 | 207 | 4.60 |
| 2019 | 1 | 24 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1316 | 7 | 5.10 | 220 | *4.60 |
| 2015 | 2 | 54 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 780 | 3 | 5.09 | 205 | 4.60 |
| 2013 | 2 | 48 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1259 | 8 | 6.01 | 230 | 4.60 |
| 2015 | 2 | 36 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 1019 | 3 | 6.01 | 226 | 4.61 |
| 2015 | 3 | 95 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 794 | 4 | 6.02 | 231 | 4.61 |
| 2017 | 3 | 86 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1782 | 11 | 5.10 | 216 | 4.62 |
| 2011 | 1 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 520 | 5 | 5.09 | 215 | 4.62 |
| 2019 | 3 | 73 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 1074 | 7 | 5.10 | 222 | 4.63 |
| 2011 | 2 | 62 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 653 | 1 | 6.01 | 235 | *4.60 |
| 2020 | 3 | 86 | Zack Moss, Buff. | 576 | 5 | 5.09 | 223 | 4.65 |
| 2017 | 3 | 105 | James Conner, Pitt. | 144 | 0 | 6.01 | 233 | 4.65 |
| 2011 | 3 | 73 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 454 | 1 | 5.11 | 220 | 4.65 |
| 2019 | 3 | 74 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 969 | 4 | 5.07 | 203 | 4.66 |
| 2018 | 2 | 38 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 77 | 1 | 6.00 | 200 | 4.66 |
| 2014 | 2 | 55 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1339 | 9 | 6.01 | 233 | 4.66 |
| 2014 | 2 | 57 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 401 | 4 | 6.00 | 230 | 4.66 |
| 2013 | 2 | 58 | Montee Ball, Den. | 704 | 4 | 5.10 | 215 | 4.66 |
| 2019 | 3 | 102 | Alexander Mattison, Minn. | 544 | 1 | 5.11 | 221 | 4.67 |
Some of the 4.6 backs on the above list -- Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde -- went on to have credible careers. Montee Ball was a notable bust; jury out on some others, though early returns aren't great.
In the Williams-Carter range -- 4.50 to 4.55 -- fall some of the league's best running backs in recent years. Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley. Some busts there too, but even more disappointments among the faster guys.
I think 40 times are most interesting when a big guy is really fast, or when players run slower than expected. Two of last year's very best rookies, Jonathan Taylor and Antonio Gibson, were 225-pounders who ran sub-4.4 40s, which catches the eye. Ronald Jones and Ameer Abdullah leap to mind as slower backs who haven't impressed in the NFL, letting me down in dynasty leagues in recent years.
Ultimately, I think the numbers are good to have, but only as part of the picture. I don't know that either Williams or Carter should move on anyone's board based on yesterday's performance. If a 220-pounder coming out this year runs a 4.4 over the next few weeks, I'll be interested, and so will some NFL teams.
--Andy Richardson