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James Conner

Back better early than late

Steelers running back James Conner has had a quiet free agent market, and while it's not exactly stunning for a player Pittsburgh wasn't able to fully count on the past few years, now we have more clarity. Conner recently underwent surgery for a turf-toe injury.

The injury was an offseason one, which Ian Rapoport laughably reported as a "very moderate" injury, whatever that's supposed to mean. Let's call it moderate; Conner is recovering from that surgery, which no doubt factored into his lack of free agent visits to this point.

Yesterday, though, he was in Arizona, which is looking for another running back to pair with/complement/back up Chase Edmonds. The Cardinals let Kenyan Drake go in free agency, and he signed with the Raiders. Edmonds has some early sleeper appeal, and I don't think signing Conner would move the needle much on those expectations.

Back in 2015 while at the University of Pittsburgh, Conner was diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma. You come back from that and nobody should ever count you out, and Conner certainly had his moments in Pittsburgh. But it's doubtful the Cardinals, or any team, will be looking at him as any more than a No. 2.

Conner played sparingly as a rookie, then broke out as a starter in his second season. But he missed three games that year with an ankle injury, and six the next year with shoulder and quad injuries. Last year he missed 3 games, one with a quad and two on the COVID-19 list. He's been banged-up or left early in plenty of games, but he's also only 26 (next month).

I think, though, that most teams (including the Cardinals) are probably looking at him as a No. 2. Conner being counted on as a lead back looks like a mistake.

Take a look at last season. In his first six games, Conner was pretty productive, averaging 18 touches for 94 total yards, and 4.4 yards per attempt.

CONNER GAME LOG, FIRST HALF (2020)
Opp.AttRunAvgTDNoRecTot
at NYG691.502817
Den.161066.61215121
Hou.181096.11440149
Phi.15442.9131963
Cle.201015.0111102
at Tenn.20824.10329111
Avg.16754.40.72.51994

In the second half of the season, a pretty steep decline across the board. Fewer touches, less production, and notably less effective with his chances. His lone good game was against a Jacksonville defense that had simply long since stopped trying, hurtling head-on to the No. 1 draft pick. Conner's yards per carry dropped to just 3.6 in those games.

CONNER GAME LOG, SECOND HALF (2020)
Opp.AttRunAvgTDNoRecTot
at Balt.15473.1131360
at Dall.9222.402-220
Cin.13362.8021248
at Jax.13896.8031099
at Buf.10181.800018
Ind.5214.2154566
at Cle.9374.1052562
Avg.11393.60.32.91553

Wherever Conner signs, I don't think he'll be much of a threat to the starting running back. If it's Arizona, I think that's way better than the team drafting a running back early, at least for Edmonds' prospects.

--Andy Richardson

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