There's a lot of excitement about this year's quarterback class, and there's quite a bit of fondness for incoming pass catchers (wide receivers and tight ends), too. You're not hearing as much about the running backs. There will perhaps be a first-rounder or two (Najee Harris and Travis Etienne), but no one would be completely stunned if none were selected. Fantasy teams shouldn't worry too much, though.
First-rounders typically have the most talent, and they also get advantages as far as opportunity and commitment. But plenty of backs can rise up from the ranks of mid- to late-rounders or undrafted free agents to make an impact, even in year one.
Table below shows all the rookie running backs who finished in the top 25 at their position since 2000. About 40 percent of those players (21 of 51) were first-round picks, so that initial edge definitely makes a difference. But almost as many (17 of 51) were drafted in the third round or later. (And 13 in the second round, which seems likely for Javonte Williams, pictured.) Give an edge to those first-rounders, certainly, but 60 percent of top-25 rookies this century were selected outside that initial round.
Last year was a particularly good year for rookie running backs. Six of them finished in the top 25 at the position. Five of those players (in bold) were either drafted outside the first round, or not drafted at all.
TOP-25 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, 2000-2020 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rd | Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
1 | 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 |
1 | 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
1 | 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 49 | 472 | 12 | 313.6 | 2 |
2 | 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1238 | 63 | 477 | 12 | 306.5 | 2 |
3 | 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 81 | 826 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
3 | 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1327 | 53 | 455 | 11 | 297.2 | 4 |
1 | 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1341 | 19 | 268 | 13 | 257.9 | 5 |
2 | 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 254.8 | 6 |
1 | 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 59 | 367 | 10 | 279.3 | 6 |
FA | 2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1070 | 49 | 344 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
3 | 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 36 | 457 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
6 | 2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1613 | 11 | 77 | 13 | 258.0 | 7 |
3 | 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1282 | 50 | 377 | 10 | 275.9 | 7 |
2 | 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1508 | 33 | 364 | 17 | 322.2 | 7 |
2 | 2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | 35 | 257 | 11 | 244.5 | 8 |
1 | 2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 51 | 367 | 12 | 254.7 | 8 |
2 | 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 941 | 46 | 436 | 16 | 279.7 | 8 |
1 | 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 80 | 651 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
1 | 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 21 | 188 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
1 | 2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 88 | 742 | 9 | 272.7 | 9 |
1 | 2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 36 | 302 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1313 | 29 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
2 | 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1124 | 27 | 215 | 9 | 214.9 | 10 |
1 | 2008 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1228 | 43 | 260 | 10 | 251.8 | 11 |
6 | 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 1487 | 23 | 169 | 15 | 280.6 | 11 |
FA | 2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1104 | 34 | 224 | 10 | 226.8 | 12 |
FA | 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1037 | 35 | 241 | 10 | 222.8 | 13 |
2 | 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 56 | 514 | 8 | 224.9 | 13 |
1 | 2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 40 | 325 | 8 | 228.6 | 13 |
3 | 2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 795 | 36 | 247 | 11 | 206.2 | 14 |
4 | 2003 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 1031 | 47 | 351 | 8 | 233.2 | 14 |
2 | 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 |
2 | 2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 45 | 399 | 8 | 218.9 | 15 |
2 | 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 521 | 46 | 357 | 10 | 193.8 | 16 |
1 | 2007 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1115 | 18 | 184 | 7 | 196.3 | 16 |
2 | 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 996 | 20 | 149 | 10 | 194.5 | 17 |
3 | 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 976 | 39 | 286 | 8 | 213.2 | 17 |
2 | 2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 1183 | 22 | 178 | 7 | 202.1 | 17 |
1 | 2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 28 | 213 | 9 | 198.0 | 18 |
1 | 2000 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1364 | 27 | 296 | 6 | 231.0 | 18 |
1 | 2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 58 | 487 | 6 | 198.2 | 20 |
1 | 2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1150 | 20 | 166 | 7 | 193.6 | 21 |
5 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 26 | 141 | 8 | 185.4 | 21 |
1 | 2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1178 | 20 | 81 | 6 | 181.9 | 21 |
1 | 2004 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 1133 | 28 | 180 | 6 | 195.3 | 21 |
1 | 2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 803 | 36 | 297 | 5 | 176 | 22 |
1 | 2005 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 32 | 232 | 5 | 175.9 | 23 |
2 | 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 168.5 | 24 |
3 | 2019 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 889 | 25 | 185 | 7 | 174.4 | 24 |
3 | 2015 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 379 | 61 | 534 | 2 | 164.3 | 24 |
4 | 2011 | Roy Helu, Was. | 640 | 49 | 379 | 3 | 168.9 | 25 |
Two weeks from right now, we'll know who, if any, were the first-round running backs. But the ones selected in the second and third rounds on Friday, and fourth through seventh on Saturday, also will have the potential to make a significant rookie impact.
--Andy Richardson