Evan McPherson was the only kicker who got drafted. The Bengals are expecting he’ll be their guy. But history indicates he’s far more likely to flame out than you might expect.
Looking over past drafts from the last 20 years, the track record for kickers selected in the fifth round is remarkably poor. Only one of the last 11 chosen, in fact, has been a big hit (Jacksonville got 11 years out of Josh Scobee). The others have tended to struggle.
Two others have at least played two seasons. Miami had Caleb Sturgis for two years before cutting him loose. With Randy Bullock, he spent his rookie season on injured reserve, kicked for two years, then the Texans released him early the next season.
The best three kickers have been ones who’ve been drafted and discarded, then becoming successful on other teams – Jake Elliott, Daniel Carlson and Matt Gay. I think Carlson and Gay will be among the first 10 kickers chosen in most drafts this year.
With McPherson, he converted 17 of 19 field goals in each of his first two seasons at Florida, but he went only 17 of 22 last year, which isn’t up to NFL standards. He missed his last 3 attempts from 50-plus. He’s not a can’t-miss prospect.
If McPherson isn’t making the kicks, the Bengals likely will turn to Austin Seibert.
Cincinnati should be very familiar with this dynamic. It was the team that drafted Elliott in the fifth before he got his career going with Philadelphia. And the Bengals last year used a pair of pair of these kickers who had been drafted and discarded by other teams (Bullock, Seibert).
Below see the rundown of kickers chosen in the fifth round, along with the number of games he played before the team had to plug in another kicker (temporarily for Scobee and Bullock).
| FIFTH-ROUND KICKERS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Year | Kicker | Games |
| NYG | 2001 | John Markham | 0 |
| Jac. | 2004 | Josh Scobee | 49 |
| K.C. | 2007 | Justin Medlock | 1 |
| Dall. | 2009 | David Buehler | 0 |
| Hou. | 2012 | Randy Bullock (IR) | 0 |
| Mia. | 2013 | Caleb Sturgis | 32 |
| Cin. | 2017 | Jake Elliott | 0 |
| Min. | 2018 | Daniel Carlson | 2 |
| T.B. | 2019 | Matt Gay | 16 |
| Cle. | 2019 | Austin Seibert | 17 |
| N.E. | 2020 | Justin Rohrwasser | 0 |
| Cin. | 2021 | Evan McPherson | ? |
—Ian Allan