Trey Lance should be a fun rookie quarterback to monitor. San Francisco gave up two future first-round picks to move up 9 spots to take him, which shows both how much they like him and how ready they are to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo. I think the veteran is off the roster by August, and Lance is a Week 1 starter.
One of the criticisms you'll see of the youngster, besides his one year starting at North Dakota State (in 2019; he played one game last season) is his accuracy. Lance completed a modest 65 percent of his passes in college, which isn't terrible, but it's slight compared to the other top rookies. (Final year of college: Lawrence, Wilson, Field and Jones were all at 69 percent or better, three at 70-plus.) That's not everything, but watch any one of Lance's games and you can see him sailing occasional throws that need to be made. We need to find flaws in these guys as possible differentiators, and that's one for Lance.
I pulled out all of the quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 picks since 2000 who completed under 65 percent of their passes -- so, just worse than Lance. (In some cases, lots worse.) A few of those guys turned out fine, but a bunch of them washed out, and a few others it's too soon to call. Some of the definite flops were sub-60 percent, so maybe not a great comparison for Lance. But something to think about.
| TOP-10 QBS, UNDER 65 PERCENT COMPLETIONS, FINAL YEAR COLLEGE | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Pct | P Yds | TDP | Int |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 87 | 161 | 54.0 | 1234 | 8 | 6 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 184 | 332 | 55.4 | 2265 | 17 | 9 |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 16 | 6 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 39 | 69 | 56.5 | 562 | 2 | 0 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 186 | 322 | 57.8 | 2415 | 23 | 5 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 388 | 654 | 59.3 | 4507 | 31 | 19 |
| 2019 | 6 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 237 | 392 | 60.5 | 2674 | 22 | 9 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 235 | 383 | 61.4 | 3459 | 25 | 10 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 327 | 531 | 61.6 | 3744 | 29 | 15 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, NYG | 275 | 441 | 62.4 | 3600 | 29 | 10 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 130 | 208 | 62.5 | 1651 | 17 | 4 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 283 | 452 | 62.6 | 3756 | 26 | 10 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 303 | 480 | 63.1 | 4143 | 26 | 13 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 309 | 489 | 63.2 | 3942 | 33 | 10 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 301 | 475 | 63.4 | 3186 | 16 | 9 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 341 | 529 | 64.5 | 4719 | 43 | 13 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 308 | 476 | 64.7 | 4299 | 42 | 7 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 212 | 325 | 65.2 | 3036 | 26 | 10 |
Accuracy was also one of the criticisms levied at Josh Allen. He was pretty brutal his first two seasons in the league (under 60 percent both years), but everything clicked for him in 2020 (69 percent). Guys can get better. Matt Ryan's another one who shows poorly in college, but he's turned out well.
Ultimately, I don't have a lot of doubt that Kyle Shanahan's going to be able to have success developing Lance. Especially with the kind of shorter throws to George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk the offense is likely to feature, he should be fine. But there might be some early growing pains, too.
--Andy Richardson