Factoid

May 10, 2021

Young quarterbacks

Will Trey Lance be ready to play right away?

We were kicking around Trey Lance’s potential yesterday. I have concerns about when he’ll be ready. He’s a young guy, and he started only one game last year (completing 15 of 30 for 149 yards against Scottie Pippen’s old school).

Lance was only 20 when the 49ers drafted him. He’s 21 now.

I ran some numbers on this. They’ve got some cool search tools at Pro-Football-Reference. In the last 20 years, there have been 105 games started by quarterbacks who are 21. The track record isn’t good.

Those quarterbacks went 31-74 in those starts, with 106 touchdowns and 130 interceptions. As a group, they completed 55.7 percent of their passes in those games, averaging 203 passing yards. And 273 sacks (about 2.6 per game).

Only 24 of those 105 quarterbacks threw multiple touchdowns. (I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.)

The games listed are all of the regular-season variety. (One playoff game by a 21-year-old in the last 20 years, with Lamar Jackson losing against the Chargers.)

With the 49ers, I’m thinking they’ll go to camp with their two quarterbacks and see what happens. And I would guess that Jimmy Garoppolo, with his experience and command of the offense, will probably be starting on opening day.

The situation played out similarly with the last North Dakota State quarterback. The Eagles were thinking they’d bring Carson Wentz along slowly, with Sam Bradford being their starter. But Wentz exceeded expectations in the preseason and Teddy Bridgewater tore his ACL, giving the Eagles the opportunity to move him for a first-round pick.

As a rookie, Wentz wasn’t as mobile as Lance but had more college experience.

If we’re drafting San Francisco quarterbacks today, I would take Garoppolo if I’m looking for someone who needs to play in September. If it’s more of a lottery-pick choice as a third or fourth quarterback, I would go with Lance. (I don’t think Lance will be as effective as a passer this year, but whatever the difference would be would easily be wiped out by what Lance will do as a runner.)

On the chart below, the youngest guys are listed first.

21-YEAR-OLD STARTING QUARTERBACKS (since 2000)
Player	Year	Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int
• Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	@DET	W 48-17	16	21	76.2	198	2	1
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	MIA	L 12-20	25	41	61.0	334	1	2
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	@CLE	L 17-21	15	31	48.4	169	0	2
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	@JAX	L 12-31	17	34	50.0	167	1	0
• Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	DEN	W 34-16	10	22	45.5	198	3	1
• Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	IND	W 42-34	24	30	80.0	280	2	1
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	MIN	L 17-37	17	42	40.5	206	1	3
Michael Vick, ATL	2001	DAL	W 20-13	4	12	33.3	32	1	0
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	@CHI	L 10-24	14	29	48.3	153	1	0
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	@MIA	L 6-13	21	39	53.9	229	0	4
Alex Smith, SFO	2005	IND	L 3-28	9	23	39.1	74	0	4
Alex Smith, SFO	2005	@WAS	L 17-52	8	16	50.0	92	0	1
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	@BUF	W 27-23	16	24	66.7	170	1	1
• Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	HOU	L 22-29	24	38	63.2	253	2	0
Michael Vick, ATL	2001	@STL	L 13-31	12	30	40.0	176	0	1
• Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	GNB	L 38-44	24	35	68.6	341	3	0
Sam Darnold, NYJ	2018	@NWE	L 3-38	16	28	57.1	167	0	0
Alex Smith, SFO	2005	ARI	L 10-17	16	24	66.7	185	0	3
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	@NOR	L 27-45	16	37	43.2	205	0	3
Alex Smith, SFO	2005	@SEA	L 3-41	9	22	40.9	77	0	1
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	MIN	L 13-27	18	30	60.0	152	1	2
Alex Smith, SFO	2005	@JAX	L 9-10	8	24	33.3	123	0	1
Alex Smith, SFO	2005	@STL	W 24-20	12	16	75.0	131	0	0
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	WAS	W 19-14	21	36	58.3	241	1	0
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	SEA	L 17-20	15	27	55.6	180	1	0
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	@CHI	L 24-48	24	36	66.7	296	1	1
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	@SFO	W 28-18	10	25	40.0	170	1	0
Alex Smith, SFO	2006	HOU	W 20-17	16	29	55.2	159	1	1
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	@MIN	L 17-27	21	31	67.7	240	0	1
• Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	TEN	L 14-42	16	33	48.5	210	2	2
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	PIT	L 18-21	20	30	66.7	222	1	1
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	DEN	L 10-45	21	39	53.9	194	1	3
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	@NOR	W 26-19	14	21	66.7	207	1	0
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	@BAL	L 10-24	15	31	48.4	182	0	3
• Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	SFO	W 18-15	23	40	57.5	252	2	1
• DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	@IND	L 28-31	22	47	46.8	242	2	3
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	@HOU	L 9-19	17	36	47.2	261	1	1
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	STL	L 10-17	14	33	42.4	168	0	1
• Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	CAR	L 23-37	26	43	60.5	287	2	4
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	CIN	L 7-31	16	34	47.1	118	0	1
• Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	@SEA	L 20-32	22	42	52.4	203	2	5
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	@KAN	L 14-26	22	39	56.4	208	1	2
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	JAX	W 38-31	13	19	68.4	209	1	0
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	NYJ	L 14-17	8	17	47.1	87	0	1
• Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	OAK	L 21-23	9	20	45.0	136	3	2
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	@MIN	L 10-27	29	51	56.9	224	1	0
• Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	CLE	W 38-37	26	43	60.5	422	5	2
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	@LAC	L 10-45	12	19	63.2	105	1	1
• Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	@WAS	L 30-31	21	29	72.4	297	2	0
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	GNB	L 12-34	20	43	46.5	213	1	4
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	TEN	L 9-12	12	20	60.0	114	0	2
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	@GNB	W 20-17	11	26	42.3	149	0	0
• Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	GNB	W 38-28	14	31	45.2	205	3	1
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	@ATL	W 23-20	16	29	55.2	177	1	0
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	MIN	L 16-33	18	34	52.9	179	0	0
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	DET	L 3-17	26	41	63.4	240	0	1
Matthew Stafford, DET	2009	@CIN	L 13-23	11	26	42.3	143	1	2
Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	@MIA	L 23-25	16	28	57.1	196	1	1
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	NYG	L 18-32	19	36	52.8	247	0	0
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	@ATL	L 14-40	13	22	59.1	132	0	2
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	@DET	L 24-38	21	37	56.8	232	1	1
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	DAL	W 10-6	22	39	56.4	264	0	2
Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	NOR	L 7-38	17	33	51.5	126	1	3
Lamar Jackson, BAL	2018	CIN	W 24-21	13	19	68.4	150	0	1
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	LAR	L 9-31	12	23	52.2	87	0	0
• Marcus Mariota, TEN	2015	@TAM	W 42-14	13	15	86.7	209	4	0
• Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	@PHI	W 45-17	19	29	65.5	246	5	0
• Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	@ATL	L 17-20	20	29	69.0	250	2	0
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	JAX	L 7-19	16	32	50.0	179	1	2
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	2014	ATL	W 41-28	19	30	63.3	317	0	0
Lamar Jackson, BAL	2018	OAK	W 34-17	14	25	56.0	178	1	2
Josh Rosen, ARI	2018	@SEA	L 24-27	18	34	52.9	149	1	0
• Marcus Mariota, TEN	2015	@CLE	L 14-28	21	37	56.8	257	2	0
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	@IND	L 12-25	20	36	55.6	245	1	1
Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	@CAR	L 6-16	23	44	52.3	321	0	5
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	@CIN	L 16-30	18	31	58.1	268	0	0
Lamar Jackson, BAL	2018	@ATL	W 26-16	12	21	57.1	125	0	0
• Marcus Mariota, TEN	2015	IND	L 33-35	27	44	61.4	367	2	2
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	ATL	W 23-19	18	27	66.7	227	1	1
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	@LAC	L 10-19	15	32	46.9	215	1	1
Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	NYJ	L 3-26	14	33	42.4	93	0	3
Lamar Jackson, BAL	2018	@KAN	L 24-27	13	24	54.2	147	2	0
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	2014	DET	L 3-17	23	37	62.2	188	0	3
• DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	GNB	L 21-27	20	28	71.4	214	3	2
• Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	@SEA	W 24-7	16	26	61.5	205	2	1
Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	NOR	L 17-24	18	32	56.3	182	1	0
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	2014	@BUF	L 16-17	15	26	57.7	157	1	2
Lamar Jackson, BAL	2018	TAM	W 20-12	14	23	60.9	131	1	0
• Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	@STL	L 23-31	29	50	58.0	363	2	1
Blaine Gabbert, JAX	2011	@CAR	L 10-16	12	21	57.1	139	1	1
Marcus Mariota, TEN	2015	BUF	L 13-14	21	32	65.6	187	0	1
Josh Freeman, TAM	2009	@NOR	W 20-17	21	31	67.7	271	0	2
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	BAL	L 10-27	20	37	54.1	146	0	2
Lamar Jackson, BAL	2018	@LAC	W 22-10	12	22	54.6	204	1	0
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	2014	@TAM	W 19-13	24	42	57.1	241	1	0
Blaine Gabbert, JAX	2011	NOR	L 10-23	16	42	38.1	196	1	1
Marcus Mariota, TEN	2015	MIA	L 10-38	21	33	63.6	219	1	2
• Jameis Winston, TAM	2015	CHI	L 21-26	15	29	51.7	295	2	1
Josh Freeman, TAM	2010	ATL	L 10-20	15	31	48.4	172	1	2
DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	@CHI	L 3-20	18	36	50.0	182	0	2
Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	2014	WAS	W 29-26	26	42	61.9	268	1	0
Lamar Jackson, BAL	2018	CLE	W 26-24	14	24	58.3	179	0	0
Blaine Gabbert, JAX	2011	CIN	L 20-30	15	28	53.6	221	1	0
• DeShone Kizer, CLE	2017	@PIT	L 24-28	16	30	53.3	314	2	1
Jameis Winston, TAM	2016	@CAR	L 10-38	29	47	61.7	325	0	2

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

—Ian Allan

Trey Lance Jimmy Garoppolo

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