How much should we factor in kick returns (punts or kickoffs) when analyzing team defense and special teams groups? It looks like the answer is Very Little. They're on the decline around the league, and even with the teams that are good at it, you're talking about the difference between getting 1 touchdown over the course of a season, versus none. So about a third of a point per week.
Things have particularly tailed off lately, partly due to new rules to reduce kickoff returns (statistically the most dangerous plays as far as injuries, according to the league's own research). In the first couple of year of the past decade, there were about 30 per season. By the middle of the decade, that had dropped to about 20.
And in the last three seasons, there have been a total of 12, 14 and 15 kick return touchdowns league-wide. If you watched much football last year, you know that even 2 of those returns weren't legit kick returns. Tennessee's A.J. Brown and Dallas' CeeDee Lamb scored "kick return touchdowns" on plays where they scooped up onside kicks in the final seconds and ran them into the end zone. Try to work the likelihood of those plays occurring into a statistical model.
Anyway, here are the kick return numbers around the league for the last 10 years. The best team has been Kansas City, and even they've had a total of 5 in the last four years. Minnesota is tied for 2nd, and they haven't had one since 2016.
| KICK RETURN TOUCHDOWNS, 2011-2020 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | Total |
| Kansas City | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| Baltimore | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Chicago | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Philadelphia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| Detroit | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Miami | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Buffalo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Denver | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Tennessee | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| New England | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Arizona | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Green Bay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Indianapolis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| LA Chargers | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| LA Rams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Jacksonville | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| NY Jets | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Carolina | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Cleveland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Dallas | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| New Orleans | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Seattle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Washington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Houston | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NY Giants | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| San Francisco | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Atlanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Las Vegas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 29 | 31 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 194 |
Return touchdowns still happen on occasion. Maybe if you're trying to break ties between defenses, you consider the advantage a Kansas City or Atlanta (which added Cordarrelle Patterson, pictured, in the offseason) might have. But not something to put a lot of weight into.
--Andy Richardson