I see more positive talk about Daniel Jones. GM David Gettleman keeps talking him up, and now Joe Judge is saying how he looks new and improved – ready to step up and be that franchise kind of guy. But you have to wonder if those are more hopes than expectations.
What Jones is attempting is rare. Normally if a player is going to be good, he would have shown more by now. That hasn’t happened yet, making it seem unlikely that the Giants are sitting on the NFC East’s new-and-improved quarterback.
I was playing around with the numbers and stumbled onto the following factoid:
Since the NFL moved to the 16-game schedule in 1978, 10 times a quarterback has started at least 14 games and failed to finish in the top 20 in total quarterback production (using standard scoring). Of those 10, only one ever had a season of much statistical significance (whether it be in his third year or any of the remaining years in his career).
The exception, at least, is a very large one: Tom Brady. (Brady won a Super Bowl in his second season despite posting modest numbers; in his third year he threw 28 touchdowns versus 14 interceptions.)
The rest of the other guys, however, simply never got it going much in their careers. Trent Dilfer at least showed up in Baltimore to ride a hot defense to a Super Bowl win.
That’s the group that Jones is trying to escape.
| FOLLOWUPS BY LESSER SECOND-YEAR QUARTERBACKS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TDR | F Pts | Rk |
| 1991 | Billy Joe Tolliver, Atl. | 531 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 43.2 | 40 |
| 1996 | Trent Dilfer, T.B. | 2,859 | 12 | 19 | 124 | 0 | 205.4 | 19 |
| 2002 | • Tom Brady, N.E. | 3,764 | 28 | 14 | 110 | 1 | 321.2 | 8 |
| 2005 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 1,799 | 11 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 146.6 | 27 |
| 2009 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 1,169 | 6 | 7 | 106 | 0 | 93.1 | 32 |
| 2009 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 1,287 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 80.8 | 36 |
| 2013 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 1,648 | 7 | 9 | 151 | 4 | 149.5 | 32 |
| 2016 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2017 | Trevor Siemian, Den. | 2,285 | 12 | 14 | 127 | 1 | 181.0 | 28 |
| 2018 | Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 2 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 0 | -.6 | 73 |
| 2021 | Daniel Jones, N.E. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan