Story at the Arizona Cardinals team website might give people some pause when drafting Kyler Murray. In talking about his 2020 season -- and the way the team took a downturn after he injured his shoulder midseason -- Murray hints (if not outright states) that he will be looking to run less this year.
"Honestly, the way I see it, my legs should be a luxury," says Murray. "And it wasn't like that last year; it was me having to run for us. Once my shoulder was banged up and I wasn't trying to put myself out there and take those hits, we hit a lull."
The difference showed up in the record -- Arizona started 6-3 and finished 2-5 -- and in his rushing production. In the first half of the season, Murray rushed for 543 yards and 8 touchdowns. That was the most yards of any quarterback, and the most touchdowns (along with Cam Newton), too.
| QB RUSHING, FIRST 8 GAMES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Yards | TDs |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 543 | 8 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 469 | 3 |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 316 | 0 |
| Cam Newton, N.E. | 314 | 8 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 265 | 1 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 227 | 4 |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 202 | 5 |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 197 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 166 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 165 | 2 |
| Teddy Bridgewater, Car. | 161 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill, N.O. | 141 | 2 |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | 138 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia. | 135 | 2 |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 130 | 3 |
| Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 122 | 1 |
| Derek Carr, L.V. | 108 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 105 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 93 | 4 |
In the second half of the season, Murray rushed for about half as many yards, and fewer than half as many touchdowns. He was still above-average (5th among quarterbacks), but well off his initial pace.
| QB RUSHING, LAST 8 GAMES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Yards | TDs |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 536 | 4 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 354 | 3 |
| Taysom Hill, N.O. | 316 | 7 |
| Cam Newton, N.E. | 278 | 5 |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 276 | 3 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 248 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 247 | 2 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 194 | 5 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 161 | 6 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 143 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater, Car. | 118 | 4 |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 107 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 105 | 1 |
| Drew Lock, Den. | 102 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins, Min. | 101 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 100 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton, Dall. | 94 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 88 | 3 |
| Marcus Mariota, L.V. | 88 | 1 |
Given that decline, it makes a lot of sense to scale back Murray's rushing projection for 2021. He finished with 819 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, but if you were projecting his full year out based on the second half, it's more realistic to see him rushing for 550 yards and 5-6 touchdowns. Still one of the league's best running quarterbacks, but not at Lamar Jackson's level, or perhaps even Jalen Hurts or Cam Newton.
On the other hand....
While we tend to place more stock in what happens the second half of the season than the first, the reality is that it's easy to say you'll run less in June, maybe not as easy to actually act accordingly in September and October. Arizona looked like a lock for the playoffs when Murray was running wild and the team went 6-3. When Murray ran less, protecting that injured shoulder, the team went 2-5.
In the linked story, Murray says the team needs to be better in all aspects of the game. He's talking about improving as a passer, which is reasonable.
But be careful about scaling back his rushing numbers too much. If the Cardinals need some critical yards to win games, and Murray has a chance to get those with his legs, I don't see him sticking in the pocket refusing to run. He may not be a 1,000-yard, 10-TD rusher, but he's still going to be one of the league's best running quarterbacks.
--Andy Richardson